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The GOOD, the BAD and the UGLY -Next Level Share Selection Program

Next Level The Good The Bad the Ugly Share selection the good the bad and the ugly Next Level Share Selection

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#1 RBM

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Posted 02 July 2021 - 05:01 PM

TRADER's Goal break down tracker - perfect for setting, tracking & achieving TRADING goals! 

Click this link to find out more https://www.etsy.com...p_home_active_1

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#2 Pilotpilot

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Posted 23 January 2021 - 10:45 PM

Pls advise on naspers and prosus...

 

Hi IN

 

Unfortunately I don't have any SA shares in my program anymore. I can't give an accurate opinion regarding trading range and predicted future price, but both these shares are reacting like the Technology shares on the world markets. They are all in strong Bull trends and will probably continue their uptrend. Probably creating overinflated price over time and eventually create a bubble, like most favored sectors do over time.

 

Naspers has broken a resistance at around R3330 and could go back to test this break, but it's in a pretty bullish situation currently. 


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#3 Pilotpilot

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Posted 23 January 2021 - 10:06 PM

Hi Pilot,

 

Interested to see how your program has fared over this time. A real test of its accuracy.

Hi Sleepwa

 

Sorry for this belated reply....

 

It is actually doing extremely well. I am only trading Shares in the S&P500 on another platform, where Investors can mirror my trades. The Top 500 shares in the world is a much better place to select premium shares to invest in and is a much better environment for my program.

 

One of my portfolio's did 24% over the past 30 days since we connected a trading robot to do the trades.


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#4 Investment novice

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Posted 28 December 2020 - 09:48 AM

Pls advise on naspers and prosus...
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#5 Sleepwa123

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Posted 29 October 2020 - 11:05 AM

Hi Pilot,

 

Interested to see how your program has fared over this time. A real test of its accuracy.

 

 


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#6 Pilotpilot

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Posted 06 October 2020 - 03:35 PM

Hi... So much for the R1. 03 support.... What's your Programme saying now?

Hi Lionel

 

Haven't popped in here for a while now.

 

I have removed Steinhoff from my program some time ago, and I did mention it in a post on my website (15 July 2020). Below is an extraction of the post.

 

 

I have mentioned in the past that I use a couple of Indicators that I have developed over the years to assist in the future price projection of Companies on the Stock Exchange.

 

One of these is a Momentum Indicator I developed, which actually has nothing to do with the Momentum Index given by most charting programs, but picks up momentum by Buyer or Sellers that will increase the movement of a share in that direction in future.

 

The other is an "Outside Influence Index" that my program picks up. This usually happens when a share moves in a different manner from the natural market movement by which "normal" shares would move.

 

About 85% of shares abide by a range between +2,5% and -2,5%, and then there are a small group of shares that give figures that makes your eyebrows lift. +45% to 200% and -15 to -30%.

 

In the past, I always knew that this Indicator was important in the future price of a Share, and I had to work it into the equation, but I didn't always know why. So hence I dubbed it the "Outside Influence Indicator"

 

But when posting the previous post on my findings on the strange movement of Ascendis's share price I came to realize that it had a significant negative "Outside Influence Index" of -15%.

 

I monitor about 50 shares and Indexes, and only 2 have figures of less than -2,6%.

The one is Ascendis and the other is Steinhoff. Steinhoff has an even worse figure of -30,1%.

 

Over the past few years, I have always seen that shares with a negative "Outside Influence Index" perform worse than others of time and Vice Versa.

 

I now believe that this index carries more weight than I initially expected and that there is a continuous force moving these share prices in a direction that most people can't understand. If you take the valuations of both these companies (ASC and SNH), they should trade at much higher levels than they are currently trading at, but they defy the laws of valuations.

 

The same is happening with TESLA for instance. The current share price is making a mockery of anyone trying to justify the valuations of this company. It has a seriously high "Outside Influence" value by my program, but not the highest though.

 

 

 

I belief there are still "outside influence" on these shares. (ASC and SNH)....and I believe they will continue to loose traction like AEG, LON and others in the past. I might add it to my program and update on it at a later stage.

 

All the best

 

P


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#7 AnbanM

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Posted 14 September 2020 - 08:06 PM

great readings here guys...thanks for the additional insights...
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#8 Lionelza1

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Posted 10 September 2020 - 08:45 PM

Selling all CLS @ R267-70 and adding a new position in Steinhoff (SNH) @ R1-16 for the long portfolio.

CLS has done well so far for the long portfolio, but does not have that much more upside potential. It's only about 5% exposure, so not a big shift in the portfolio.

SNH has been trading in a pretty close trading range of late, and has strong support at R1-03, which is the bottom of its trading range and its ultimate buying price. The Reward to Risk ratio is extremely good at current levels. I did want to trade it 2 days ago :rolleyes:, nevertheless, its still a very good buy.

With the rand weakening at an alarming rate recently, this makes sense why SNH has such strong support as they have a lot of assets abroad.


Hi... So much for the R1. 03 support.... What's your Programme saying now?
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#9 Pilotpilot

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Posted 04 July 2020 - 03:53 PM

Hi Everyone
 
I am glad to announce that the Perfect Aggressive Portfolio, using the Next Level Share Selection Program, did 7,92% in the first month by trading in S&P500 stocks. It will be listing as an Investment Strategy on Monday 6 July with the QAJ ticker.
 
Read more here.
 
All the best and safe trading
 
 
P

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#10 Pilotpilot

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Posted 17 June 2020 - 09:34 AM

Morning Everyone,
I mailed this to my mailing Group last night. It does have relevance and references to the 3-months challenge, and might be of interest to the Sharechat community.
 
Good evening Everyone,
 
For those that followed the 3 month challenge might remember that I mentioned the TOP40 reaching the higher end of its trading range in this post on the 18 of Feb 2020. SSW (SGL then) and Impala Platinum were also at their upper limit and the program got these spot on too.
 
On the 24th of February, the program had Sasol as the worst share to hold, and with the most downside potential in this post. The program had it exactly right as Sasol lost nearly 90% of its value over the next month. On the 25th of February, the program picked up that the Top40 has entered a Bear trend and the consequences thereof. Please read it here as this had some important information to take into account going forward. 
 
The Top40 is once again in the same situation as the 25th of February, but a little different this time around. It has broken the 48850 Level on Wed 3 June and tested it on Thursday (Posted here). It then went up to test the 51000 level and came back to re-test the 48850 level. It has done so on the 11th and 12th of June, making 2 Doji hammers (which is a very Bullish pattern) and right above the 48850 level, which was actually perfect. 
 
Unfortunately yesterday, this support level has been broken strongly. I expect us to test this level once again tomorrow, although I'm not sure what the influence of the holiday is going to be. According to my program, the Top40 is at the higher end of its trading range between 33635 and 53540, and is about the worst position to hold of any of the shares I am watching currently. Keep in mind I am monitoring much fewer shares than in the past, as I am converting to International shares.
 
There is little upside potential to the 53500 level and the chances are greater that we will not reach that level. The Top40 is in a bear trend, and if we cannot stay above the 48850 level, the downtrend will continue. If there is to be a sell-off, we would see a weakening of the rand once again, as we have seen over the past 3 days. 
 
I expect banks and other Financials to be hardest hit with a sell-off (FSR, SBK, ABG, CPI, etc). Most of the other shares in the Top40 has some kind of Rand Hedging, but the Financial shares have very little to fall back on. Their future picture does not look good with Overdrafts, Car loans, and Home loans failing because of Covid-19 and losses of Income because of this. It will have a snowball effect and I am seriously concerned about this sector.
 
Although the Resource sector is seen as a Rand Hedge, I am not seeing it hold up in the weeks/months to come, as it is also losing momentum. ANG, IMP, and GFI are all showing very low momentum figures. Even Gold as the safe-haven asset, might not be full-proof against another sell-off. 
 
It's not all doom though. 4 Shares have come up recently as being close to long term buying levels, with very good Reward to Risk ratios.
All of them are Rand Hedge Stocks and 2 are Healthcare (ASC & APN), which I posted here last week. I am not sure what is driving Sibanye Gold, because it is showing different results from the other Gold/Platinum shares.  Steinhoff is also showing strong recent support levels at R1-00 and after the March (Covid-19) correction, it only spent 7 trading days below 97c. My program has picked up this recent support and it has an upper trading range of R8-21, which is pretty huge. I do not expect Steinhoff to drop below this R1-00 support, especially after their set of Financials recently.
 
Below are some figures I have selected from the program, to show the Risk/Reward, Momentum, and Upside Growth Potential.
 
 
In short, my Perfect Hedge Fund Portfolio for the South African market would have a slightly Bearish Exposure, shorting the Financial sector and having long positions in Defensive Rand Hedge Stocks. Just my 2c.
 
Gents, then I will not be sending E-mails in the future regarding my market views and share opinions via E-mail. As with the Perfect Portfolio Mailing group, I will post my views and comment on the Forum in the future. I am currently posting on too many platforms, and the mails are going to take up too much of my time, with replies on E-mail as well as on the Forum. 
 
If you still want to receive updates like these, please make sure to follow the topic on the Forum. (Click the 3 dots to the right of the Post and select "Follow Post"). You have to login to be able to do this.
 
Our Perfect Portfolios will be ready to invest in, in about 2 weeks time. I will update the news on the forum as well.
 
Keep safe and Regards
 
 
Quintin
 

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#11 budfox

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Posted 08 June 2020 - 09:38 AM

 

Hi Soutie

 

I won't, and thank you for your good wishes. I will still pop in here from time to time, but it will be very limited as I want to focus my time in the right places. I will give you and everyone else the extended version of my reasons for not contributing to posts on here. 

 

Given the last couple of months with this program, I was not sure which route I was going to take as the results developed. I was open to many ideas and options. But after accessing the 3-month challenge's results, and seeing that Global/Worldwide Funds took the first 65 spots for returns over the 3 month period vs. 450+ other funds, I knew definitively that investing in South African shares/companies were not going to give the highest returns going forward. I would be fighting a losing battle in the future.

 

I want to gain the highest returns for my assets as well as for my Investors. To achieve that I will need to be invested in the strongest currency, otherwise, you will be fighting the exchange rate as well. For this reason, my focus shifted toward analyzing US and Global stocks, as this is the sector to be in for the foreseeable future.

 

After the run-in with my previous broker, which I posted here, I had to look for an alternative. I found the perfect Broker that met all my needs and exceeded most of them, and also gives me a platform where Investors can analyze my performance and invest in my trading strategy.

 

Sharechat is not the platform to promote other brokers, which I have come to realize recently. There are also members using non-constructive posting on Sharechat, which I do not condone.  There is also very little discussion on Sharechat regarding global stocks.

 

So for these reasons outlined;

1) Very limited Global Stocks discussion

2) Non-Constructive posting by members

3) Not being able to mention my Broker   

 

I will not be posting my progress on Sharechat in the future. I have decided to add a Forum section to my website where I will add all my posts and I welcome new members to add posts and join in discussions. I have also realized that quite a few people are interested in South African shares I also monitor, so I will be posting my findings of these too. It's all free, so feel free to join the Forum. Change your profile name to a nickname if you like, or stay anonymous, should you wish to only view and not partake in discussions. This will make my life a lot easier, and I would not step on anyone's toes in the future.

 

The banner on the homepage will give highlights of recent performances and events.

 

Hope everyone understands my decision, as this has been done to improve my future contributions.

 

Safe trading gents (and ladies)

 

 

 

Pilot

 

All the best Pilot. Enjoyed monitoring the performance of your calls. Catch you on the other side


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#12 Pilotpilot

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Posted 08 June 2020 - 05:25 AM

Now don't be like the previous okes please...if you're going then go....Also Goodbye & Good Luck.... ;)

Hi Soutie

 

I won't, and thank you for your good wishes. I will still pop in here from time to time, but it will be very limited as I want to focus my time in the right places. I will give you and everyone else the extended version of my reasons for not contributing to posts on here. 

 

Given the last couple of months with this program, I was not sure which route I was going to take as the results developed. I was open to many ideas and options. But after accessing the 3-month challenge's results, and seeing that Global/Worldwide Funds took the first 65 spots for returns over the 3 month period vs. 450+ other funds, I knew definitively that investing in South African shares/companies were not going to give the highest returns going forward. I would be fighting a losing battle in the future.

 

I want to gain the highest returns for my assets as well as for my Investors. To achieve that I will need to be invested in the strongest currency, otherwise, you will be fighting the exchange rate as well. For this reason, my focus shifted toward analyzing US and Global stocks, as this is the sector to be in for the foreseeable future.

 

After the run-in with my previous broker, which I posted here, I had to look for an alternative. I found the perfect Broker that met all my needs and exceeded most of them, and also gives me a platform where Investors can analyze my performance and invest in my trading strategy.

 

Sharechat is not the platform to promote other brokers, which I have come to realize recently. There are also members using non-constructive posting on Sharechat, which I do not condone.  There is also very little discussion on Sharechat regarding global stocks.

 

So for these reasons outlined;

1) Very limited Global Stocks discussion

2) Non-Constructive posting by members

3) Not being able to mention my Broker   

 

I will not be posting my progress on Sharechat in the future. I have decided to add a Forum section to my website where I will add all my posts and I welcome new members to add posts and join in discussions. I have also realized that quite a few people are interested in South African shares I also monitor, so I will be posting my findings of these too. It's all free, so feel free to join the Forum. Change your profile name to a nickname if you like, or stay anonymous, should you wish to only view and not partake in discussions. This will make my life a lot easier, and I would not step on anyone's toes in the future.

 

The banner on the homepage will give highlights of recent performances and events.

 

Hope everyone understands my decision, as this has been done to improve my future contributions.

 

Safe trading gents (and ladies)

 

 

 

Pilot


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#13 soutie

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Posted 04 June 2020 - 03:00 PM

Dear Forumers

 

Due to unfortunate circumstances I will not be using this platform in future to post on. My time will be spent on other platforms. 

 

I wish everyone well and safe trading

 

 

Pilot

 

My details will soon be on www.justnextlevel.net 

Now don't be like the previous okes please...if you're going then go....Also Goodbye & Good Luck.... ;)


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Anyone need a heads up...!


#14 Snippit

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Posted 04 June 2020 - 05:13 AM

Dear Forumers

 

Due to unfortunate circumstances I will not be using this platform in future to post on. My time will be spent on other platforms. 

 

I wish everyone well and safe trading

 

 

Pilot

 

My details will soon be on www.justnextlevel.net 

 

This is not a market place, especially not for unsubstantiated claims that would not be permitted elsewhere.

Not even with your apparently unique editing privileges.


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
  4. Learning links: http://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/trader-links.html

 


#15 Pilotpilot

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Posted 03 June 2020 - 05:45 PM

Dear Forumers

 

Due to unfortunate circumstances I will not be using this platform in future to post on. My time will be spent on other platforms. 

 

I wish everyone well and safe trading

 

 

Pilot

 

My details will soon be on www.justnextlevel.net 

 

 


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#16 Pilotpilot

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Posted 18 May 2020 - 09:25 AM

The Story and Inner workings of the Next Level Share Selection Program.

 

Below I will describe how the Share Selection Program came about and, without giving too much detail, I will give more detail on how stocks get selected and traded.

 

The first 13 years of my investment approach was mainly based on the teachings of Warren Buffet and Benjamin Graham. Value investing was my main approach and shares were all picked on the basis of their valuations. At the end of 2007/8, I realized that certain shares just defy the laws of valuations. Some stocks were so overpriced by 2008 and continued to shoot into the stratosphere and then there were some that were seriously undervalued and continued to do so. Even with the collapse of the market at the end of 2008, and comparing it to the 2000 bubble, shares did not behave in correlation to their valuations. It was just baffling.

 

Being a quantitative analyst, I focused on why shares behave in this manner and it led me to the Trending Shares theory. Share prices behave in trend-like patterns (bullish or bearish) as maximum and minimum trading levels are determined, you can project the relative future of the share price, but shares do break these patterns and it happens more often than you think.

 

In 2015 my focus shifted on technical analysis and indicators to assist with the probability of a trend break or if the share price would stay inside its trend. I have used and tested a LOT of indicators, and have developed my own, and combinations of them, to determine a possible breakout or not.

 

Over the next few years, I analyzed 20 shares that have had amazing bull runs in the past. The best time to be invested in them, was just before the bull trend started and selling just before it ended. So these were the two areas I focused on. I wanted to know what they all had in common at this stage of their future/past bull trend.

 

In 2017 I created an indicator that was groundbreaking, but I only realized it in 2019, when used over much longer timeframes. This was to be the holy grail of all indicators. It takes so many factors into consideration and basically defines if the share is in an investable Bull or Bear trend. It is always right, but the duration and rate of change are determined by other factors. This is where I turned back to old Warren, Benjamin, and my Trending Shares theory. I also use some fundamental and other indicators I created to determine the growth potential of each share.

 

The Next Level Share Selection Program was implemented on a real portfolio in June 2019 until Jan 2020 and gained 55% in 6 months where the JSE lost about 2% over this period. Several other pseudo portfolios have been created since to allow back-testing and improve on the metrics used, all having exceptional results. A 3 month (Good "long", Bad "Benchmark" and Ugly "short") pseudo portfolio challenge was created from 12 Feb to 15 May 2020 to prove how good this program works and it showed in the results by outperforming either way. http://www.sharechat...ogram/?p=291754

 

Shares are now pre-selected using a screening program, inspired by Uncle Warren and Benjamin to select the best potential candidates to outperform the market. They are selected on a couple of criteria, mainly valuation, market Cap, performance, and lastly volatility, but the latter is of lesser importance but does project larger returns. The reverse screening criteria are used for selecting possible short positions.

 

Share data like PE, Dividends, share price, trend line data, and several indicator values are entered into the program, some on a daily basis and some on a weekly basis. The program firstly determines if this share is in a bull or bear trend and then calculates the growth rate with all the information, trend direction, and indicators supplied. This gives an indication over time of the performance of this share and projects a future price for each share, but this does not mean it is a good time to enter a trade.

 

The program then calculates with historical trend lines, the upper and lower trading ranges for each share. These limit values are influenced by several indicators that factor in the probability of this support or resistance line being broken or not. If a share price nears these support or resistance levels, several indicators give a momentum index that would influence a break, short-test, or a test of this level. The program uses these indicators to update where the most probable upper and lower trading limits are. It then uses the current share price to determine the position it holds within the trading range and creates a risk-reward ratio. The risk-reward ratio ultimately determines how profitable a trade will be and if it should be bought or sold.  

 

Each portfolio now has a risk and asset management monitor. A risk profile can be chosen for each portfolio from 1-8. Where 1 would be a super conservative investor with very few trades over a one year period and a 50% typical investment. A 4 rating would be similar to a Hedge Fund with long and short positions in the market and regular trading with a 200% gearing. An 8 would be an aggressive portfolio with gearing of up to 400% as its ultimate exposure.

 

To enter into a new trading position the risk management monitor calculates the overall risk /reward of the portfolio and will only identify shares that will improve the risk/reward as possible trades. Similarly, it will identify current holdings that have the worst risk/reward ratio and suggest orders to lower the risk on a continuous basis. Entry and exit prices are determined mainly by the risk/reward value but are also influenced by the overall market momentum, which would identify short term corrections and then suggest deeper buying levels and lower selling levels.

 

The risk management monitor will normally keep the portfolio at 50-75% of its maximum exposure rating, and leaving funds available for exceptional trades. When it gets to the higher end of its exposure, it will amplify possible entry prices as to improve risk/reward even further.

 

To avoid over-exposure in any one share, the risk monitor limits exposure to 20% of the maximum exposure for each portfolio type. There are many other logical features that also have an influence on pricing, returns, and exposures.

 

To conclude, the Next Level Share Selection Program has been developed to enter an investment in the right stock, at the right time, for the optimal duration and giving you the highest return you could possibly achieve.

With the Risk and Asset Management Monitor, it keeps your investments in the zone to create the Perfect Portfolio!

 

Regards 

 

 

Pilot

 


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#17 Snippit

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Posted 18 May 2020 - 09:20 AM

The performance over the last 3 months for the Old Mutual Gold Fund has been +55%

 

When the going gets tough is when gold gets going. But the volatility is not for the feint hearted.

 

 

 

 


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  1. Trusting strangers on an anonymous chat forum can be a risky business. Even more risky than the stock market.
  2. I have tried to warn the vulnerable, being those without adequate savvy: e.g.: https://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/sharechat-warning.html
  3. Vultures circle hereabouts. Give them control and say goodbye to your money. 
  4. Learning links: http://swrict.blogspot.com/2018/11/trader-links.html

 


#18 Pilotpilot

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Posted 16 May 2020 - 03:31 PM

End of 3 Month Challenge!

 

After 3 months, and the end of the challenge the portfolios look as follows.

 

Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program  +3,64%

Top 40 Benchmark  -11,41%

Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program  -32,25%

 

Luckily I will not have to eat my hat! As stated in my post 3 months ago, I have an 83,3% chance of getting it wrong. There were 6 ways it could end and they had to finish in this order, and they did.

 

Putting the end result into perspective I have compared my results to South African Equity funds, of which 84 falls in this category (SA Equity Funds). Interestingly over the past 3 months, the first 65 best performing funds in South Africa were Global or Worldwide funds. (but I'll get to that later) I had no global shares to choose from, so I can't compare it to them.

 

Of the 84 Funds, only 24 could beat the Top40 index and 60 performed worse than the index. The long portfolio, even after a poor last 2 weeks, beat all 84 Funds as none of them managed a profit over the 3 month period. Coronation's Industrial Fund performed the best and made a loss of -0,71%. They had a very large portion of their portfolio in Naspers (+35% exposure) and Prosus which both benefitted from their exposure to tencent.

 

When comparing the program's worst share portfolio to the worst Equity fund in South Africa over the 3 month period it was -32,25% vs -26,27%.  

 

84 Funds, all with different views on the market (-0,71% to -26,27%). That is a wide range, and not one of them could outperform the Long - or the Short Portfolio.

 

What makes this achievement even more impressive is that;

 

1) The program had to be fully exposed, where some funds have cash, bonds, or Foreign exposure which were more beneficial over this period.

2) My trades had to be done in pairs and on the same day and (buy and sell) had to happen simultaneously. (2 shares are hardly ever at the right level at the same time to buy one and sell another.)

3) 1% trading charges were used (0,5% each way) and 0,7% is more the norm.

4) No Dividends were taken into account, which has been added to the Funds and worked into the Top40 Index over the 3 months.

5) I only had about 40 shares I monitored (I am the only employee). These fund managers have the whole JSE to choose from and can select only the best from this wide selection. They have teams of people to help them make the best decisions and combine ideas to optimize returns. Its really an unfair advantage they have.

 

So what next and can it be improved?

 

This model really works and I have not even implemented the Risk/Reward and Asset Management system with these portfolios as I have with the small CFD account I am running. This is something I have been working long hours on over the past 2 months and is also a big contributor to performance. I have improved the weighting value of some indicators when I did back testing with the original portfolio on 12 February.   The portfolios as they stand currently has large reward/risk ratios and are still lagging the market and will outperform even more in the week to come. There are many areas that can improve returns, such as trading long and short positions in the same portfolio will improve returns dramatically. Monitoring and updating more shares will enable the program to cherry-pick more premium shares on offer and improve results. I would like to monitor in the region of about 120 shares soon. Because we are in a long term weakening Rand trend and proven by the fact that SA Offshore Funds took the first 65 spots for fund performance over the last 3 months, a Euro/Dollar/GBP  trading account would make absolute sense. Having your cash in another currency (which I will disclose later), and having access to the global market stocks and many more instruments to trade with will be the best way forward. And lastly gearing; this portfolio was at a gearing of 1, and increasing the gearing would scale the returns.  

 

I will explain the whole inner workings of the program, with the share selection and risk management addition in another post.

 

I also have a business proposition for 2 or maybe 3 investors for a minimum investment amount of R20000 each. I may not give financial advice, but business propositions are fine.

 

Mail me at perfectportfoliosa@gmail.com (I can only offer it to 2 and maybe a 3rd later) if you want more information.

 

Thank you for all the interest and all the responses, constructive and those less constructive.

 

Regards

 

  

 

Pilot

 

Ps. Attached are the final holdings and the 84 SA Equity Funds 

Attached Files


Edited by Pilotpilot, 16 May 2020 - 03:33 PM.

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#19 Pilotpilot

Pilotpilot

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Posted 05 May 2020 - 11:28 AM

My goal is to use the Share selection program for a Hedge fund approach in future. So about 6 weeks ago I decided to test the other side of the spectrum. To see how far I could push this program and to test what it could do, especially with the Dynamic Risk Management Monitor I added. So I opened a CFD account and deposited R4000 on the first of May 2020.

 

I started straight away and used the best shares, that showed the highest growth figures; were near their lower support levels, and were showing the best Reward/Risk returns by the program. I tried to keep my gearing between 3-5:1 and tried to keep multiple of the best positions showed by the program (Long and Short).    

 

After just over a month the Program made R8943, returning a 223% growth in 32 days only on the closed positions. (There are profits of about R1500 on the current open positions)

 

My worst trade was shorting Sasol at R86-17. I posted it on the Sasol thread (see link below) and you can see it in my trading history attached. 

http://www.sharechat...l-sol/?p=291702

 

It was not a trade suggested by the program, as Sasol is some way from its upper resistance level, nor did it have a good risk reward ratio. I got Stopped out the next morning when it jumped to R95-00. Nevertheless, that is the lesson you learn when you think you're smarter than the program.

 

2 other trades did not go through as Limit trades and caused a loss and a lesser return on the other trade. Still the overall result is much better than expected.

 

I wanted to keep an aggressive approach, and in one instance the gearing went to 6.5:1 when 2 new orders both traded. I tried to keep some cash at all times and have it available for very good opportunities. The portfolio currently has 10 positions of which 8 are long positions (75% exposure) and 2 shorts (-25% exposure).

 

The program is currently showing a recovery by most shares being monitored.

 

I used a scale (1-10) that I created on my Risk manager for Portfolio management. A 1 would be Long term investment style (50% exposure), a 4 rating would be Hedge Fund type approach with typically 200% exposure, and I had the setting on 8 (350% exposure) for the duration of the past month. This is about as close to max exposure as I could go (allowing the gearing available to me). When getting to the higher exposure levels, the program always gives the worst (best) share to close out, to get the exposure and risk back to ideal levels.

 

Going forward I intend to create a more balanced approach with a 5 rating, but I am currently using a 6,5 for the month of May.

I will soon be creating a portfolio on an overseas platform where investors can connect their accounts to copy the trades on my account.

 

And for those wandering.......Sasol is not a short anymore!

 

Trade safe

 

 

Ps. the time on my trading history is London time and I think you should add an hour to get the right SA time.

Attached Files


Edited by Pilotpilot, 05 May 2020 - 11:30 AM.

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#20 Pilotpilot

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Posted 03 May 2020 - 11:11 AM

I know this is a very long Video on youtube, but it's certainly worth the watch and could save you a boatload of money in the future.

 

It's about a professional trader (one of the best) that gives you some insights as to what's happening behind the scenes. I shared it with someone else, but I think everyone needs to see it.

 

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=L7G0OfJUON8

 

 

Enjoy!


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