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The GOOD, the BAD and the UGLY -Next Level Share Selection Program

Next Level The Good The Bad the Ugly Share selection the good the bad and the ugly Next Level Share Selection

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#81 Milo

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Posted 04 March 2020 - 02:50 PM

The top 40 is following the Dow Jones. The charts look exactly the same.

 


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#82 Milo

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Posted 04 March 2020 - 02:27 PM

Thanks for the feedback. Is going to be interesting to see what the Dow Jones 30 futures will do tonight.


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#83 Pilotpilot

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Posted 04 March 2020 - 01:06 PM

Thanks for the info. All your your portfolios are in a minus. Does this mean we can start shorting the Alsi Top 40. Is there a bear market starting?

 

Hi Milo

 

Yes, the Top40 has entered a Bear market on the 24 February 2020 according to my program. I explained it on the 25th...see link below.

 

http://www.sharechat...am/#entry290875

 

 

We are now floating about midway between the Bear break and our 20 year support level. I do not see enough good news to break back into the bull trend, so this will be our home for now. If the 20 year support level breaks (and I believe it will), we will see a big weakening in the rand and a serious market correction or even a prolonged recession.

 

The program has a projected value of 39500 for the Top40 over the next 12 months, taking all the factors into account and is recommending a net short exposure for the portfolio. So shorting the Top40 near resistance levels would be best in this market or just staying out of long positions for the time being.   


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#84 Milo

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Posted 04 March 2020 - 09:28 AM

Thanks for the info. All your your portfolios are in a minus. Does this mean we can start shorting the Alsi Top 40. Is there a bear market starting?


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#85 Pilotpilot

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Posted 04 March 2020 - 08:17 AM

Standings are as follows after 14 trading days.

 

GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks by Program)  -1,29%
BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark)  -8,45%
UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks by Program)  -14,65%

 

The Reward/Risk ratio is still very good for the best Picks Portfolio (3.98) and is the lowest for the Top40 (0.78). This means that there are 4 times more upside reward vs. downside risk on the Good Portfolio and 0.78 upside reward vs. downside risk. This in effect means that the Good Portfolio shares are close to their support levels and should recover much stronger than the Top40 in the days and weeks to come.

 

I am selling ANH position at the open today and changing into SHP (@ R127-50 or at the close today) for the Ugly portfolio. ANH is near its lower levels, whereas Shoprite is nearing its upper trading levels. This will improve the Reward/Risk ratio for the Ugly portfolio to the downside. 

 

I am really impressed with the results to date, as this is better than the difference between any 2 unit trust funds in this category. Out-performance is exactly what a fund should achieve, and this is what these portfolios are all about. The best and worst portfolios are moving apart at close to 1% per trading day in these volatile conditions. These figures should be lower in less volatile periods, but should not influence the out-, under-performance.    

 

The growth rating given by the program currently, concurs why these figures should be so high. The 5 best performing shares have a projected 100%+ growth and the 5 worst performing shares have larger than -40% projected decline over the next year.

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#86 Pilotpilot

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Posted 03 March 2020 - 08:58 AM

Selling GRT position and adding to GND position in Ugly portfolio at the open today.

 

Standings are as follows after 13 trading days.

 

GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks by Program)  -4,29%
BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark)  -10,41%
UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks by Program)  -16,18%

 

The Reward/Risk ratio is very high for the best Picks Portfolio and we could expect the Good Portfolio to out-perform the others by a larger margin.

 

 

Attached File  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 3-3-2020.xlsx   29.13KB   3 downloads


Edited by Pilotpilot, 03 March 2020 - 09:01 AM.

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#87 Pilotpilot

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Posted 28 February 2020 - 08:56 AM

Selling half the position in DRD and buying SGL at the open to balance exposures and risk reward.

 

 

Attached File  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 28.xlsx   43.62KB   3 downloads


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#88 Pilotpilot

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Posted 27 February 2020 - 04:42 PM

Ugly portfolio changes

 

Selling (4% portfolio value) KIO  and Adding CFR at the close. 


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#89 Pilotpilot

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Posted 27 February 2020 - 03:44 PM

Best of luck going forward Pilot....

Gut feel says 10 days & only 6% is a beeeeeeg ask for peop's to start to part with their cash.

 

My portfolio is up more than 6% in the last 10 days.....Go Harmony.....!

See you next time..

Cheers. 

 

True, but they still don't know what I know  :D. And it is 6% when the market went down 5%.  

 

Well done to you with 6+% on your portfolio and Harmony! Very nice!

 

My best buy of the month is long AMS @ R1180-00.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 27 February 2020 - 03:45 PM.

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#90 soutie

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Posted 27 February 2020 - 03:31 PM

Best of luck going forward Pilot....

Gut feel says 10 days & only 6% is a beeeeeeg ask for peop's to start to part with their cash.

 

My portfolio is up more than 6% in the last 10 days.....Go Harmony.....!

See you next time..

Cheers. 


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#91 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 February 2020 - 09:54 PM

After 10 trading days, the standings are as follows.
 
GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks by Program)  +5,86%
BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark)  -4,72%

UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks by Program)  -11,26%

 

More than 10% separates the Good portfolio from the Top40 and that is about a 1% change per day. The Worst Pick Portfolio under-performed the TOP40 by more than 5% in the 10 days. The margins should widen further as time goes by.

 

After 10 days these results are pretty impressive considering that there was no cash to wait and time the trades better. With the restriction on trading I could have balanced the risk/reward a little better as the market is very volatile and trading limits are reached much quicker than normal.  

 

I will only update the portfolios from tomorrow and not the Share Selection Program data. This data is now privileged information. It is available with my assistance should any investor, Fund or Hedge Fund manager/owner want to take their portfolios to the Next Level and get their full performance bonus.

 

Attached File  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 26-2b.xlsx   30.74KB   5 downloads


Edited by Pilotpilot, 26 February 2020 - 09:56 PM.

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#92 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 February 2020 - 05:10 PM

Hi Pilot...

1st off how come such a penny illiquid stock such as Wesizwe is included....

2nd how can 1 plat miner become bearish & 2 major producers become bullish...

Maybe I've answered my own question...

Ever learning is I...

No hurry busy day for us all today...

Cheers.

Hi Soutie

 

Because there were not enough "long" stocks to choose from at the start, I added some shares that were in the same sector as the other "long" shares in the TOP40. Wesizwe and Jubillee Platinum were selected, and they barely made it as suitable selections. They were also the worst performers in the Good Portfolio. They were also a fond selection for an investment friend I am watching shares for.

 

On the second question. I am really not sure. Wesizwe and Jubilee are junior Platinum miners and are maybe not on the international radar for Platinum stocks. Wesizwe was barely in a bull trend at the start compared to the other Platinum shares. On the 25th it traded below its buying support level and crossed over to slightly bearish. It does not have a strong bearish indicator, but is on the wrong side of the fence. 

 

Most of the other platinum mining companies still have strong bullish indexes.

 

Cheers


Edited by Pilotpilot, 26 February 2020 - 05:11 PM.

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#93 soutie

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Posted 26 February 2020 - 03:16 PM

Hi Pilot...

1st off how come such a penny illiquid stock such as Wesizwe is included....

2nd how can 1 plat miner become bearish & 2 major producers become bullish...

Maybe I've answered my own question...

Ever learning is I...

No hurry busy day for us all today...

Cheers.


Edited by soutie, 26 February 2020 - 03:17 PM.

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#94 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 February 2020 - 02:29 PM

Selling full Wesizwe position @ R0-45, as it has changed to bearish index.

 

Adding half to each of NHM (R132-80) and AMS (R1225-50) positions.


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#95 Pilotpilot

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Posted 26 February 2020 - 09:24 AM

Activated Steinhoff's short term data and it is now the top share for overall growth index by the program 332% over the next year. This is only according to short term support and resistance levels. There are no long term support/resistance levels that apply to Steinhoff, as it has breached all of them. These new support levels could get reached and breached within hours.

 

Although still in a bear trend, the amount of momentum that is recognized by the program has put it as a buy at R1-73, along with 3 other shares. Given the right risk reward trades could be made. I will not add it to the portfolios, but is interesting to watch and monitor the support resistance levels.

 

Aspen is still a good short.

 

 

 

Attached File  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 26-2.xlsx   30.38KB   7 downloads


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#96 Pilotpilot

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Posted 25 February 2020 - 07:14 PM

After 9 trading days, the the standings are as follows.
 
GOOD Portfolio (Best Share Picks by Program)  +9,53%
BAD Portfolio (Top 40 Benchmark)  -5,23%

UGLY Portfolio (Worst share picks by Program)  -9,27%

 

After yesterdays pullback across all the markets, the standings still reflect what should be happening. The Ugly portfolio is continuing to further under-perform the TOP40 and the Good Portfolio is an impressive 14,76% ahead of the TOP40.

 

The risk/reward between the portfolios for future performance is still what will seperate them even further. There is still more to come from the Good portfolio in the weeks to come.

 

 

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#97 Pilotpilot

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Posted 25 February 2020 - 08:42 AM

As mentioned yesterday that many shares have changed into Bear trends over the past week and that the TOP40 is close to the crossover and yesterday the TOP40 changed quite vigorously into a Bear. It broke its 200 day moving average as well, at around 50500 and will probably re-test this break and should also fill a gap that was created yesterday at around 51150. We have currently found some support at a 1 year support level, so a bounce should be the likely result today. If it breaks we might test it at a later date.

 

The bigger picture shows that the TOP40 has already broken 10 year support levels. Now we have to go back to 20 year support levels and we did test old support levels on 3 occasions in the past. The weeks of

21 April 2003, 17 November 2008 and 23 February 2009.

 

I do not expect this 1 year support to hold if we have already lost support at 10 year buying levels. The market has already chosen another direction for the TOP40. The program has also identified that the TOP40 has changed into a Bear trend and this is always correct. It will cross over to bullish in the future at a lower level albeit in 5 days time or 2 years time.

 

Testing the old 20 year support levels, would mean a correction of 14-25% from current levels. This level is not always clear, because it is not determined by the price but an indicator and is also influenced by the time it takes to get there. If international buyers decide that this is not the level they want to buy into our markets.....heaven behold.......it will not be pretty!

 

 

 

Today is the 2nd last day I will be posting with all the future indicators etc. I will then just update the Portfolios for the next 3 months. You will see, that over time the margins between the portfolios will expand even further. The program makes unbiased selections, which is key especially in these volatile times and do recognize support and resistance levels for buying and selling opportunities. 

 

4 Shares have triggered the buy signal and Aspen is still at good shorting levels. The 4 shares for buying are all Platinum shares.

 

 

There are no changes to the portfolios for today. 

 

Attached File  NEXT LEVEL SHARE SELECTION-GOOD-BAD-UGLY 25-2.xlsx   30.77KB   5 downloads

 


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#98 Pilotpilot

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 04:37 PM

I am making  a change to each of the portfolios at closing today.

 

 

GOOD Portfolio

Closing 2,4% position in Clicks and adding to Northam

 

Clicks currently has a bad risk reward for our Good portfolio and Northam is near its buying levels and a good buy.

 

 

 

UGLY Portfolio

Closing 4% position in Shoprite and adding Investec

 

Shoprite is nearing its support levels and INL still has fresh legs for the downrun. 


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#99 Pilotpilot

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 11:33 AM

https://www.moneyweb...pierre-verster/

 

When you get some time.....& give the comments section time to fill.....Plenty fun...!

 

Very interesting....like it!

 

This is exactly the type of fund to benefit from this share selection program!


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#100 LiveInExcess

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Posted 24 February 2020 - 11:16 AM

Good luck, will be watching your progress!

 

Been a while since posting on this platform, still venture here now and again.

 

Glad to see something like this to hopefully bring some life back into this place.

 

Always love a good algorithm..... 


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