The GOOD, the BAD and the UGLY -Next Level Share Selection Program

Selling two thirds (510 shares) of ANG shares @ R509-00 and buying 1/3 of the cash value into SSW @ R36-70, and 1/3 into SNH @ R1-18.

 

Although Anglogold is at all time high levels, and should continue to make new highs, the Risk/Reward is the worst of the Long positions held and should be adjusted to keep the risk profile at the optimal levels.

 

SSW is in the same sector and has a better Risk/Reward and SNH now has a lot of upside potential with little downside risk.

 

 

For the short portfolio I am selling all SHP shares @ R110-20 or at opening and Buying BHP Billiton @ R307-35 or at the open.

 

Shoprite does not have much more downside at these levels and BHP, although a rand hedge stock, show to have some downside potential. It is dependent on the Oil price for earnings, so it does make sense why the program is showing a negative future valuation.

Used closing price of R464-77 for ANG. It is much lower, but unfortunately I did not specify a change.

Selling two thirds (510 shares) of ANG shares @ R509-00 and buying 1/3 of the cash value into SSW @ R36-70, and 1/3 into SNH @ R1-18.

Although Anglogold is at all time high levels, and should continue to make new highs, the Risk/Reward is the worst of the Long positions held and should be adjusted to keep the risk profile at the optimal levels.

SSW is in the same sector and has a better Risk/Reward and SNH now has a lot of upside potential with little downside risk.

For the short portfolio I am selling all SHP shares @ R110-20 or at opening and Buying BHP Billiton @ R307-35 or at the open.

Shoprite does not have much more downside at these levels and BHP, although a rand hedge stock, show to have some downside potential. It is dependent on the Oil price for earnings, so it does make sense why the program is showing a negative future valuation.

After 10 weeks, the portfolios looks as follows.

For all the Steinhoff holders.

Yesterday, I had a look at my "What's-going-on-here-index?" It's actually my momentum indicator, and has always been my "go-to" signal that something is up with a share. (See table attached)

I could understand that Sibanye and DRD had such high momentum figures, with the Gold price and the weak Rand playing in their favor. Even BTI is showing some upwards momentum because it is a defensive stock in this part of the cycle, but to see Steinhoff with a figure that even surpasses all the Gold shares? That is not a value I expected and my gut says something is up here. That is a boatload of momentum!

Who knows......... maybe some people had a sneak peek at their financials, or maybe a couple of figures got written on a tissue and did not get sneezed upon.....

Just leaving it out there...

Edited by Pilotpilot, 24 April 2020 - 04:06 AM.

Selling all CLS @ R267-70 and adding a new position in Steinhoff (SNH) @ R1-16 for the long portfolio.

 

CLS has done well so far for the long portfolio, but does not have that much more upside potential. It's only about 5% exposure, so not a big shift in the portfolio. 

 

SNH has been trading in a pretty close trading range of late, and has strong support at R1-03, which is the bottom of its trading range and its ultimate buying price. The Reward to Risk ratio is extremely good at current levels. I did want to trade it 2 days ago  , nevertheless, its still a very good buy.

 

With the rand weakening at an alarming rate recently, this makes sense why SNH has such strong support as they have a lot of assets abroad.

Changing the buying price for SNH to R1-19.

Selling all CLS @ R267-70 and adding a new position in Steinhoff (SNH) @ R1-16 for the long portfolio.

CLS has done well so far for the long portfolio, but does not have that much more upside potential. It's only about 5% exposure, so not a big shift in the portfolio. 

SNH has been trading in a pretty close trading range of late, and has strong support at R1-03, which is the bottom of its trading range and its ultimate buying price. The Reward to Risk ratio is extremely good at current levels. I did want to trade it 2 days ago  , nevertheless, its still a very good buy.

With the rand weakening at an alarming rate recently, this makes sense why SNH has such strong support as they have a lot of assets abroad.

Edited by Pilotpilot, 23 April 2020 - 08:29 AM.

Just a quick Covid-19 update.

Worldwide the spread of the virus has dropped to 3,5% growth per day. This has been as high as 12%, and this is a catastrophic figure if nothing was done about it.

My previous estimate was that we might have less than 5 million reported cases worldwide and this could still be reached, but would be a better case scenario.

My new projections estimate we could end with between 4,8mil and 6mil reported cases. It all still depends on new flare-ups and the Southern Hemisphere's winter to come, so these figures could change. We should get to less than 100 new reported cases  around early October, and having less than 10 new cases at the end of November 2020.

We could see the no new reported cases at the end of 2020 or early January 2021 and hopefully close the chapter on this pandemic.....

Stay safe

Hi Angazi

 

I just updated all the shares on the watchlist....so this is fresh news.... 

 

MTN is showing a new projected price of R34-00 and a trading range between R26-85 and R74-44.

 

I do believe we will test that bottom support (R26-85), as we have not formed a bottom, nor is there any divergence or momentum change yet. But time will tell.

Thanks very much... taking a hammering today

What's your take on MTN today?

Hi Angazi

I just updated all the shares on the watchlist....so this is fresh news.... 

MTN is showing a new projected price of R34-00 and a trading range between R26-85 and R74-44.

I do believe we will test that bottom support (R26-85), as we have not formed a bottom, nor is there any divergence or momentum change yet. But time will tell.

Hi Soutie

 

You did good so far....

 

I updated all the data on a lot of shares and checked MTN in particular. The program is still showing downside but not as bad as was predicted. It still shows downside but only -28% from  the R51-80 level. That gives a target price of around R37-30.

 

Its trading range is between R31-64 and R79-23. It seems like it will not go down to the low levels of 23 March (R29-50), and should find support a bit higher at R31-50.

 

It might not be as rapid as the previous downturn, but we are still in a larger downtrend and in a bear trend.

 

MTN has not really shown a bottom forming, so I'm am still bearish on this one.

 

I have not gone through any financials or news to support the downside, but with Covid-19 and the slowing economy, their earnings should be impacted too.

What's your take on MTN today?

After 9 weeks, the GOOD, BAD and UGLY portfolios looks as follows.

Closing all IMP shares @ R119-70 and adding to the ASC position @ R1-32 for the Long (Good) portfolio.

IMP still has some upside but is now trading halfway in its trading range with the worst risk reward in the portfolio. ASC has a much better Risk/Reward ratio and the highest growth rate.

As ASC is the best selection by the program, it also needs to be the largest holding, as to represent the program's guidance best.

Cool bud thanks....I'll be out long before it hits the early R40's

Thanks for all the other input also.

Hi Pilot..

1st off I'm long MTN from this morning's bounce off R48.70 area & it was a convincing 1 for me...

I don't see much more downside...My reasoning is purely T/analysis volume & price action at levels the above becoming a major 1.

My stop will be a close below R47.65.

Maybe I'm missing something....?

Hi Soutie

You did good so far....

I updated all the data on a lot of shares and checked MTN in particular. The program is still showing downside but not as bad as was predicted. It still shows downside but only -28% from  the R51-80 level. That gives a target price of around R37-30.

Its trading range is between R31-64 and R79-23. It seems like it will not go down to the low levels of 23 March (R29-50), and should find support a bit higher at R31-50.

It might not be as rapid as the previous downturn, but we are still in a larger downtrend and in a bear trend.

MTN has not really shown a bottom forming, so I'm am still bearish on this one.

I have not gone through any financials or news to support the downside, but with Covid-19 and the slowing economy, their earnings should be impacted too.

Edited by Pilotpilot, 15 April 2020 - 11:37 AM.

Yea....keeping up with a 140% per day uptrend is probably not going to happen. If we do 10% everyday for 2 weeks, I won't complain.

Would be nice if it does continue that upward trend... But... I'm getting concerned about the talks about that drug and the effects etc.... Anywayz... Interesting day 2morrow

Yea....keeping up with a 140% per day uptrend is probably not going to happen. If we do 10% everyday for 2 weeks, I won't complain.

That's Perfect! Then there are no gaps, and the "new" uptrend can continue.

Hit R1. 45 on the head

That's Perfect! Then there are no gaps, and the "new" uptrend can continue.

Hi Pilot..

1st off I'm long MTN from this morning's bounce off R48.70 area & it was a convincing 1 for me...

I don't see much more downside...My reasoning is purely T/analysis volume & price action at levels the above becoming a major 1.

My stop will be a close below R47.65.

Maybe I'm missing something....?

Hi Soutie

Sorry, got caught up in a lot of stuff today. I will have have a proper look and come back to you.

I did see that the hourly chart showed a break that is causing a strong uptrend. But I will check the longer term view.

Hi Lionel

There are 2 gaps that needs to be closed. The daily @ R1-62 and the other at R1-45. It would be good if both closed, but the daily is the important one @ R1-62. I am happy with the R1-67 entry too.