35854 replies to this topic

[HDB]

 
 
Your first mistake, never trade on other peoples advice!

Trading the ALSI is not easy and it takes a lot of years to master this skill, mistakes will also be made, sometimes more than other as she changes her mind very quickly!

Recently it has been more difficult calling the moves as this thing has been moving sideways from June!

But thanks for your posting of charts and advice on this forum, really made a difference!

A

As GM of Traders corner said last night...last 2 months has been very choppy and trendless..very hard to trade!!

In fact last 2 months has been a day traders dream...

[Hedge]

I'm long @ 45822

Aiming for +- 46950 by next week.

My stop is big, so the gap can first close.

Long here takes guts but with a bit of time I think you could be correct. The weakness in the US today could be expected after a good run but the strength should return and will pull Alsi up with it. Rand also weakling which should also help.

[Argento]

 

Hi A
 
To look at it from another way, Anglo and Bill are in a down trend and have been for a while, CFR is up, NPN is turning up, SAB is up but loosing momentum, and MTN is up. All of that tells me long is the only way to go, I did however feel that the last drop was cut short and expected at the very leased another 500 points before the turn, I was looking for about 44500 as the turning point. Also looking at the FTSE the area of 6750.00 has been tested 5 times and in 4 of them the market has bounced back down, yesterday it was tested again and today it seems to have bounced back down. In my view, in order to make the new highs you are looking for (I think will happen) the market needs to confirm itself by allowing a drop and correcting / confirming prices. That would require more than a 3 percent drop, we have not seen  a drop larger than 4 percent this year. If you look at a few other points  as well, we have had a good run and have also had the good fortune to have the RAND devaluing and that pulled us up when we should have dropped on many occasions, looking at the mother unit the FTSE they have had numerous corrections over the same period and are in a much more stable situation.
 
I still think the BULL is on but I also think traders are nervous to commit due to apprehension that his has possibly gone on for to long, if we get a decent drop the market will have its correction and be in a much better position to move on to new highs with more confidence. This may as you state also be a C leg down that would end this cycle.  
 
I still have my longs in place and don't plan to change much unless we start looking like a break of the 44000 is on the cards.
 
It is not waves but it said the same thing as waves.
 
G

 
A good read and you might be right with that last drop (C leg) before we see new highs!

Thanks Grantmu

[Argento]

 

At risk of this last quote; I just don't understand how you guys, like Argento especially, can still be bullish, when both the daily and 4hr charts CLEARLY show we're in a downtrend. (My charts don't go back long enough to show any other than a bull trend on the longer time frames.)
Almost all the times I've followed A, I ended up being in trouble. (MY own fault!) The ONLY people here who's been consistently making good calls, are Mhlato and HDB. Although, I'm still stuck in a long, because of following HDB yesterday morning(no bad feelings; MY choice once again). Overall I'm short though and trying to keep a short open at ALL times; just hoping not to miss that BIG sudden correction.
A, you're not Travis from IG perhaps, also trying to (mis)lead us into believing we should still be bullish at the workshops!??
My most successful trades lately has been when I stay away from Sharechat when trading (and in a trade) or when only following HDB's OUV...

 
Your first mistake, never trade on other peoples advice!

Trading the ALSI is not easy and it takes a lot of years to master this skill, mistakes will also be made, sometimes more than other as she changes her mind very quickly!

Recently it has been more difficult calling the moves as this thing has been moving sideways from June!

But thanks for your posting of charts and advice on this forum, really made a difference!

A

[BBW]

I used to be more active on here but I haven't been on for awhile.

 

I believe Argento is a genuine guy who always gives of himself. 

 

However ... I do believe a lot of trolls visit this site (brokers and/or those who are looking for an easy buck) and that is the reason I seldom post. Pity, because there are some really good guys in here who know their stuff

My post isn't meant to discredit A or out of vindictiveness. I've learned more from him (about technical trading) than probably anyone else on this forum and am very thankful for that. I also believe he's really unselfish and adds a lot to teach us all (and that's much more than I can say), but even he gets it wrong some(many)times and the greener traders like me should take care? For instance, where do you see the higher highs in this picture?:

 

Attached Files

•  Document.rtf   6.16MB   27 downloads

[grantmu]

 
 
Hi Roundtree,

Always look at the big picture, until this morning she has been making higher highs as mentioned but with this downside action it sure raise the question...are we finished with Intermediate IV of Primary III? Now she has not touched the yearly uptrend line in place around 44900ish and amazingly how sometimes they play in those channels and only turn when she hit that trend line!

This could have been a B wave up and we have started with a the C leg down now!!?

With the US marching north and we totally out of sink this makes atm is really difficult, going to wait for confirmation before going short!

Next week is seasonally bearish also!

A

Hi A

 

To look at it from another way, Anglo and Bill are in a down trend and have been for a while, CFR is up, NPN is turning up, SAB is up but loosing momentum, and MTN is up. All of that tells me long is the only way to go, I did however feel that the last drop was cut short and expected at the very leased another 500 points before the turn, I was looking for about 44500 as the turning point. Also looking at the FTSE the area of 6750.00 has been tested 5 times and in 4 of them the market has bounced back down, yesterday it was tested again and today it seems to have bounced back down. In my view, in order to make the new highs you are looking for (I think will happen) the market needs to confirm itself by allowing a drop and correcting / confirming prices. That would require more than a 3 percent drop, we have not seen  a drop larger than 4 percent this year. If you look at a few other points  as well, we have had a good run and have also had the good fortune to have the RAND devaluing and that pulled us up when we should have dropped on many occasions, looking at the mother unit the FTSE they have had numerous corrections over the same period and are in a much more stable situation.

 

I still think the BULL is on but I also think traders are nervous to commit due to apprehension that his has possibly gone on for to long, if we get a decent drop the market will have its correction and be in a much better position to move on to new highs with more confidence. This may as you state also be a C leg down that would end this cycle.  

 

I still have my longs in place and don't plan to change much unless we start looking like a break of the 44000 is on the cards.

 

It is not waves but it said the same thing as waves.

 

G 

[gannet]

At risk of this last quote; I just don't understand how you guys, like Argento especially, can still be bullish, when both the daily and 4hr charts CLEARLY show we're in a downtrend. (My charts don't go back long enough to show any other than a bull trend on the longer time frames.)

Almost all the times I've followed A, I ended up being in trouble. (MY own fault!) The ONLY people here who's been consistently making good calls, are Mhlato and HDB. Although, I'm still stuck in a long, because of following HDB yesterday morning(no bad feelings; MY choice once again). Overall I'm short though and trying to keep a short open at ALL times; just hoping not to miss that BIG sudden correction.

A, you're not Travis from IG perhaps, also trying to (mis)lead us into believing we should still be bullish at the workshops!??

My most successful trades lately has been when I stay away from Sharechat when trading (and in a trade) or when only following HDB's OUV...

 

I used to be more active on here but I haven't been on for awhile.

 

I believe Argento is a genuine guy who always gives of himself. 

 

However ... I do believe a lot of trolls visit this site (brokers and/or those who are looking for an easy buck) and that is the reason I seldom post. Pity, because there are some really good guys in here who know their stuff

[Roundtree]

 
 
Hi Roundtree,

Always look at the big picture, until this morning she has been making higher highs as mentioned but with this downside action it sure raise the question...are we finished with Intermediate IV of Primary III? Now she has not touched the yearly uptrend line in place around 44900ish and amazingly how sometimes they play in those channels and only turn when she hit that trend line!

This could have been a B wave up and we have started with a the C leg down now!!?

With the US marching north and we totally out of sink this makes atm is really difficult, going to wait for confirmation before going short!

Next week is seasonally bearish also!

A

Understood, brother.

 

I guess it depends on how you look at the bigger picture. She's a bit feisty, it's true, but she's been very good to me. Like I said, we were at this level on Friday. We could be traversing down south to close the gap, or it could be the end of civilization as we know it!

 

Always look at the bigger picture.

 

One more thing, I have to say I admire your unbiased approach to the market. But most of all, I admire the fact that, unlike most traders who only talk about their good trades after the fact, you are one who will openly admit when you think you have been wrong. It takes brass balls to make the calls you do. And I consider myself privileged to be in your presence. Continue enlightening those of us who are willing to learn. 

 

Happy trading, brother. 

[Beorn]

I'm long @ 45822

Aiming for +- 46950 by next week.

My stop is big, so the gap can first close.

[BBW]

@Argento...the little I have been on here you have made correct calls and the last one you made about getting out of your positions Has probably been the most educating to me!!big lesson in trading!!

 

@Vertebrae...here is a quote I live by which you will probably enjoy....not directed at anyone on here

 

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
-Lincoln

At risk of this last quote; I just don't understand how you guys, like Argento especially, can still be bullish, when both the daily and 4hr charts CLEARLY show we're in a downtrend. (My charts don't go back long enough to show any other than a bull trend on the longer time frames.)

Almost all the times I've followed A, I ended up being in trouble. (MY own fault!) The ONLY people here who's been consistently making good calls, are Mhlato and HDB. Although, I'm still stuck in a long, because of following HDB yesterday morning(no bad feelings; MY choice once again). Overall I'm short though and trying to keep a short open at ALL times; just hoping not to miss that BIG sudden correction.

A, you're not Travis from IG perhaps, also trying to (mis)lead us into believing we should still be bullish at the workshops!??

My most successful trades lately has been when I stay away from Sharechat when trading (and in a trade) or when only following HDB's OUV...

[bear catcher]

V the Master

[gannet]

On a shorter time frame that speed line ... if price action continues to hold ... could prove to be significant.

 

The area around 46,000 is important for a number of reasons. If we bounce back towards it and reverse ... it could offer a 2nd bite at the cherry. 

 

 

Attached Files

•  alsi srl.png   247.68KB   6 downloads

[Argento]

 

That's a damn shame, A. Just for interest sake, are you planning to go short?
 
According to some, the sky is falling; is it? We were at this level on Friday. What has changed since then?

 
Hi Roundtree,

Always look at the big picture, until this morning she has been making higher highs as mentioned but with this downside action it sure raise the question...are we finished with Intermediate IV of Primary III? Now she has not touched the yearly uptrend line in place around 44900ish and amazingly how sometimes they play in those channels and only turn when she hit that trend line!

This could have been a B wave up and we have started with a the C leg down now!!?

With the US marching north and we totally out of sink this makes atm is really difficult, going to wait for confirmation before going short!

Next week is seasonally bearish also!

A

[Motion Picture]

Been reading this article. Very sobering...especially for our long term accounts:

 

http://seekingalpha....cfa_daily&ifp=1

[mx125]

Bit the bullet and took my losses. Still green for the month though, but lost a hell of a lot. Will scalp my way back.

[Ettas]

Catching up on some good posts here

 

A - you have made some great calls. And I think you are spot on again.

 

Mhlato - an ominous ... but good post. We need to pay attention to this

 

I believe yesterday's move was the signal. For me it confirmed a lower high and next week could be messy.

 

The Bear is about to be let loose ... and its hungry!

@Argento...the little I have been on here you have made correct calls and the last one you made about getting out of your positions Has probably been the most educating to me!!big lesson in trading!!

 

@Vertebrae...here is a quote I live by which you will probably enjoy....not directed at anyone on here

 

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt."
-Lincoln

[BlythZ]

When i close the longs that i have i am going to stick to being a day trader, yesterday i was in profit and ended up with a loss and today the pain continues but made some money this morning with HDB's call. So bottom line is day trading works much better for me, please note that i said for me, not for everyone!

[gannet]

I'm out of all my trades, don't like this action and no more higher highs!

A

 

Catching up on some good posts here

 

A - you have made some great calls. And I think you are spot on again.

 

Mhlato - an ominous ... but good post. We need to pay attention to this

 

I believe yesterday's move was the signal. For me it confirmed a lower high and next week could be messy.

 

The Bear is about to be let loose ... and its hungry!

[Roundtree]

I'm out of all my trades, don't like this action and no more higher highs!

A

That's a damn shame, A. Just for interest sake, are you planning to go short?

 

According to some, the sky is falling; is it? We were at this level on Friday. What has changed since then?  

[Gorrat]

Bears please take my money.... Sticking it out...... Long it is...... Target 46000 COB next week Tuesday. Based on simple long term model....