35854 replies to this topic

[HDB]

Bem ive closed my longs this morning and now have time for replying to your post!

 

Thanks for the reply...

 

I am not defending my theory but just thought I would discuss 2 points you made..

 

1. The rand/ dollar FX is the one of the most illiquid foreign currency to play. Why do you think the spreads are so high! Its a manipulators dream! Im in the import/ export business so I know that as a fact! Go try to put a buy for a million dollars and see what happens to the rand. If it was dollar/euro or dollar/pound, those currency wont even move for 10 times that volume! As I said Rand is an easy rarget for manipulators and our Reserve Bank Governors have been saying it for years!!  SA made the biggest mistake by floating the rand..

 

2. Back to SAB...My exact point why Player A went for an overseas company instead of a local bourse stock!

I have asked many questions regarding the alsi in this forum and no one could answer them. You have to understand the mechanics of how the alsi system works to understand how this game is played. if you don't you will never understand my point!!

Vertebrae says its drama.Good luck to him because it shows his limited knowledge of the mechanics of the system! I wont get into those mechanics is that will require another 2 hours to post here!! I have a system which can tell me at anyone time what the underlying should be during the day plus minus a few points!! To get that system going , you have to know how this alsi works. Look back at my posts to see questions I was asking when I first started playing the alsi 6 months ago. It wasn't for testing who is clever in this forum. The question was specific as to how the bourse works. if you don't understand that, you not going to make a good trader!!

 

Just another question for you because you seem to know a lot about trading and I respect you for that..

If I buy one alsi contract from safex, what actually happens? What am I really buying??? Don't say a contract, I want more than that....

 

BTW SAB down over 1% in UK and about same here even with pound weakening!!

 

and now to me Player A cashed in big time yesterday and this morning!! closed his longs!!

 

Right now he is selling his SAB back into the market!!

 

and finally the bruised and battered Mms have control of this market!! All local shares down...

[grantmu]

Where can we get the volumes traded, because IG don't give volumes for alsi. Is there a site that we can use for this?

i get my feed from a company called DIRO in Pretoria, live feed cost about R600 per month

[HDB]

Where can we get the volumes traded, because IG don't give volumes for alsi. Is there a site that we can use for this?

no...Only if you have an account with safex via your broker!!

[Dallas]

Where can we get the volumes traded, because IG don't give volumes for alsi. Is there a site that we can use for this?

[grantmu]

back to exceptionally low volumes again today

[Vertebrae]

Being phobic about shorting but need the practice before the big game.

[farouk]

Looks like Vertebrae pullback playing out.

Waiting for buying @ the bottom.

Edited by farouk, 11 June 2014 - 10:01 AM.

[HDB]

Grantmu, contact HDB via a pm. He is by far one of the most dedicated students of the markets.

 

HDB, regarding our discussion:

 

Point 2: It seems unrealistic that a currency like the ZAR (one of the top 10 traded and liquid FX's in the world) will be targeted for the matter of small gains on a small bourse. Let's agree to disagree!

 

Point 3: I did do a lot of reading on the SAB issue. ABI has reached saturation level in most of their markets. All of them are gunning for the premium beer market, a segment where SAB is ahead of ABI. Deep pockets and lots of risk, yes, but why do it through a FTSE proxy? For that additional volume (R3.5Billion) why not just target a locally listed entity like MTN? As a side note: When you operate in a near-zero interest rate environment (read yield as well), the Yanks, and now Europe, won't give a rat's ass about valuations.

 

Point 4: I follow Tencent every day until close out. There is a decent correlation between NPN after 10 am SA time and the Hang Seng futures. I also believe that some buyers are targeting the island reversal move back to R1278. On a general up day they will allocate money regardless (fund managers).

 

Point 6: IG shows 89% of traders short. Information that I get from guys trading with PSG, SBK and Nedbank show similar patterns. Technical levels higher? Yes. A certain fact? No.

 

Remember Randal Stevens' quote: " Top pickers and bottom pickers become cotton pickers"

Bem ive closed my longs this morning and now have time for replying to your post!

 

Thanks for the reply...

 

I am not defending my theory but just thought I would discuss 2 points you made..

 

1. The rand/ dollar FX is the one of the most illiquid foreign currency to play. Why do you think the spreads are so high! Its a manipulators dream! Im in the import/ export business so I know that as a fact! Go try to put a buy for a million dollars and see what happens to the rand. If it was dollar/euro or dollar/pound, those currency wont even move for 10 times that volume! As I said Rand is an easy rarget for manipulators and our Reserve Bank Governors have been saying it for years!!  SA made the biggest mistake by floating the rand..

 

2. Back to SAB...My exact point why Player A went for an overseas company instead of a local bourse stock!

I have asked many questions regarding the alsi in this forum and no one could answer them. You have to understand the mechanics of how the alsi system works to understand how this game is played. if you don't you will never understand my point!!

Vertebrae says its drama.Good luck to him because it shows his limited knowledge of the mechanics of the system! I wont get into those mechanics is that will require another 2 hours to post here!! I have a system which can tell me at anyone time what the underlying should be during the day plus minus a few points!! To get that system going , you have to know how this alsi works. Look back at my posts to see questions I was asking when I first started playing the alsi 6 months ago. It wasn't for testing who is clever in this forum. The question was specific as to how the bourse works. if you don't understand that, you not going to make a good trader!!

 

Just another question for you because you seem to know a lot about trading and I respect you for that..

If I buy one alsi contract from safex, what actually happens? What am I really buying??? Don't say a contract, I want more than that....

 

BTW SAB down over 1% in UK and about same here even with pound weakening!!

[Plasma]

Symptom of an immature trader that got burned yesterday....sitting on hands and s#%% scared to jump in, though the trades are presenting themselves.

[farouk]

Tks HDB just took 200 points from your calls.

[Vertebrae]

V

 

Were we headed?

 

O

 

Upside is bounded. Breach spells overthrow. 46000 should be too far until (iv) in. Need microwaves (iv) and (v) to complete the entire bull Primary.

Should be a good +400 points short coming. But that is only my take based on chart appearance and wave count.

[HDB]

 

Great stuff for stage play. Costume people could also go artefact (that's when you get your art and your facts confused)

Like the drama teacher let loose on students in the chemistry lab. Good for fun and entertainment and acid spills.

Good teacher stuff - not.

Only your opinion or fact?

[Olymphia]

 

Great stuff for stage play. Costume people could also go artefact (that's when you get your art and your facts confused)

Like the drama teacher let loose on students in the chemistry lab. Good for fun and entertainment and acid spills.

Good teacher stuff - not.

V

 

Were we headed?

 

O

[CPvanWyk]

Someone is playing with the gbp zar again

[Vertebrae]

 

PLease note: This is juts my theory of what happened today. I could be hopelessly on the wrong track but its for you to make up your own mind. 

 

Great stuff for stage play. Costume people could also go artefact (that's when you get your art and your facts confused)

Like the drama teacher let loose on students in the chemistry lab. Good for fun and entertainment and acid spills.

Good teacher stuff - not.

[K~~]

Grantmu, contact HDB via a pm. He is by far one of the most dedicated students of the markets.

 

HDB, regarding our discussion:

 

Point 2: It seems unrealistic that a currency like the ZAR (one of the top 10 traded and liquid FX's in the world) will be targeted for the matter of small gains on a small bourse. Let's agree to disagree!

 

Point 3: I did do a lot of reading on the SAB issue. ABI has reached saturation level in most of their markets. All of them are gunning for the premium beer market, a segment where SAB is ahead of ABI. Deep pockets and lots of risk, yes, but why do it through a FTSE proxy? For that additional volume (R3.5Billion) why not just target a locally listed entity like MTN? As a side note: When you operate in a near-zero interest rate environment (read yield as well), the Yanks, and now Europe, won't give a rat's ass about valuations.

 

Point 4: I follow Tencent every day until close out. There is a decent correlation between NPN after 10 am SA time and the Hang Seng futures. I also believe that some buyers are targeting the island reversal move back to R1278. On a general up day they will allocate money regardless (fund managers).

 

Point 6: IG shows 89% of traders short. Information that I get from guys trading with PSG, SBK and Nedbank show similar patterns. Technical levels higher? Yes. A certain fact? No.

 

Remember Randal Stevens' quote: " Top pickers and bottom pickers become cotton pickers"

 

 

Hi Ben 

 

 

Thanks for the response! and i agree with you 200%..your opinion and my opinion may be different,,,thats what makes healthy debates!!

As i concluded in my post, mine was just a theory what i felt happened, i could be right i could be wrong!

Probable, possible, impossible , improbable....your guess is good as mine...but at least we are thinking to see the variious options out there!!  Today was an unusual day, very unusual, with ftse and to a degree thankng but we shooting the lights out without any pullbacks whatsoever. In fact my CCI system usually gives us an average 4 trade signals a day and guess what...Today we had zero. Thise who missed the 8.30am bus never got a chance to get in.Simply amazing!!

 

Anyway without getting too argumentative id like to go through some of your inputs...

 

1. 80b or 8b is still a lot of money...can break any market maker!

 

2. FX markets are totally unregulated and one player can move the currency big time. This has been MMs ammo for ages but today this came back to bite him.Depends on who has the deeper pockets and who how much is at stake.

 

3. SAB : dont read too much on these market commentators as the first thing that comes to thier mind when a share shoots the lights out is " Takeover"  At a 30p/e and so expensive, do you really think any share with that P/E will run up 5% on market rumours especially with a market cap of over a trillion?  and yes could that increase in volume be realted to Player buyiing that underline? Deep pockets and lots at risk remember..

 

4. Please do some homework on ten cent daily closing price and compare it to NPN daily closing price. NPN usually follows tencent. I keep track of it everyday. Please tell me if NPN has ever closed % age higher than then % age higher close of ten cent. It rarely, if not has ever happened!! NPN is used a number of tims by the MMs to take alsi higher or lower but by end od day it normally follows ten cents but the increase is always a lower %age. Today was different. NPN went up 4.02% compared to Tencents 2.44!!! Why the sudden disparity?

 

5. this is a known fact which i also proved. and exactly my point...Player A played these 2 stocks to gain market traction!

 

6. Totally disagee with you there. Yeah if u said every man in the street and every uneducated trader i will agree. But the technicals still point to a move much higher!

 

So you have your points and i have mine!! Which is right or wrong, the market only knows!!!

 

This market is a casino. The house always wins right? Well in my view some bright spark with deep pockets is trying to prove that theory wrong!!

 

Well this is just my opinion!!!

 

 

OK here is how this scheme was orchestrated: Lets Call the people or person who did this Player A

 

First Player A sold off the rand after the market opened causing the pound to weaken:

Pound at 8.30am  was R17.8839. Player A took the pound as high as R18.03 during the day and it closes at R17.9816 at 5pm!!

 

Just with the currency adj. we had 190 points  added to alsi. Obviously for him to weaken the currency, he was prepared to lose money when he has to re buy it!! Well its all in the bigger grand scheme of things. If he takes the market up and his options hit strike at 80 some odd billion, he must have been prepared to loose a few million on the currency side... Look at the past history for last 12 trading days for pound. Every single day it opened at a high, went lower during the day and then closed at a high. So our markets also opened high, went right down and then recovered at close for yes the last 12 trading days!!   Today player decided he was going to play the MMs at there own game and juts took the pound higher and higher. If you look at after hours right now, its down to R17.94.

 

His second move and a good one at that...He did not play the Alsi...He went for the juggler and went for the underlying...and that too not local shares but overseas shares...SAB and NPN. Our MMs can control local shares but they cant control the dual listed ones.

SAB up a whooping 5.5%...for what reason was it up. Why suddenly jump? Yes the weak pound could support its price but at most 1%.

Player A buys the momentum driven foreign underlying knowing he can dispose of it quickly and maybe at a small loss once his options are cashed in....The increase in SAB on our bourse added 280 points to the index. 

Then Player A bought NPN up 4.02% today. Once again a popular stock not hard to offload once options cashed in. NPN rise today added 150 points to the index.

 

 

Grand total of 3 = 190 + 280 +150  = 620 points!!!

 

MMs were taken to task and could not fight the sudden increase in the underlying!!

 

 

Where was the overall world markets?

 

FTSE was red by over .5% at one time. Dow also opened red and no way SAB in london could have risen 5.5% unless their was a powerfull and concerted effort to push it up and up on a red day!! Dow is still red as i write this...

 

So in my opinion, the thugs met their matcg today and still licking their wounds, not to realize tht tomorrow will be more bloodshed for them. Futures rollover in over a weeks time, so if Player A was using the futures market he wanted to make sure he made money before they expired!! However i am pretty sure he was using call options!!

 

Where does this leave us in the forum? Well im sure those short  the lesson is.....

 

1. Think outside the box first especially those who went short today.

 

2. Make sure stop losses in place or you become another casualty of this game. Its called collateral damage. ( Every looks rosy for a short and the next minute your account is wiped out for no valid reason)

 

3. Do not try to catch the top. Guys have been doing in from 41000 thinking here it is,,,but this beast juts goes up and up.

 

 

PLease note: This is juts my theory of what happened today. I could be hopelessly on the wrong track but its for you to make up your own mind. 

Love it when there it healthy debate without mudslinging! 

 

Think bottom line is when the Central banks destroy yield in cash and bonds and print money out the wazoo, the only place for the money to go is stocks! Even when stocks are (perceived to be) overpriced, they still yield more than stashing your money somewhere else. 

 

So the uptrend is intact. Until when? Who knows...

 

I'm too scared for a long (although logic dictates that this is the position to be in), and the perma-bear in me knows the moment I play long the market will turn.. Thus sitting in (low-yielding) cash and waiting for a shooting star and movement back inside the BBU to open some shorts...

 

Prosperous trading

 

K

[JJBen]

Grantmu, contact HDB via a pm. He is by far one of the most dedicated students of the markets.

 

HDB, regarding our discussion:

 

Point 2: It seems unrealistic that a currency like the ZAR (one of the top 10 traded and liquid FX's in the world) will be targeted for the matter of small gains on a small bourse. Let's agree to disagree!

 

Point 3: I did do a lot of reading on the SAB issue. ABI has reached saturation level in most of their markets. All of them are gunning for the premium beer market, a segment where SAB is ahead of ABI. Deep pockets and lots of risk, yes, but why do it through a FTSE proxy? For that additional volume (R3.5Billion) why not just target a locally listed entity like MTN? As a side note: When you operate in a near-zero interest rate environment (read yield as well), the Yanks, and now Europe, won't give a rat's ass about valuations.

 

Point 4: I follow Tencent every day until close out. There is a decent correlation between NPN after 10 am SA time and the Hang Seng futures. I also believe that some buyers are targeting the island reversal move back to R1278. On a general up day they will allocate money regardless (fund managers).

 

Point 6: IG shows 89% of traders short. Information that I get from guys trading with PSG, SBK and Nedbank show similar patterns. Technical levels higher? Yes. A certain fact? No.

 

Remember Randal Stevens' quote: " Top pickers and bottom pickers become cotton pickers"

 

 

[HDB]

HDB

 

1. The R80B story is nonsense. Someone misquoted Garth Mackenzie here. He mentioned a total exposure value of R8Billion on TC. Option strikes are long deltas from 45 850 and upwards.

2. FX markets are orders of magnitude bigger than our equity market. To think that a single player can launch a calculated, daily attack on the rand is far stretched in my opinion. The Street and the Reserve Bank will realise this very quickly.

3. SAB: Rumours of a buy-out/merger with Anheuser-Busch (ABI) send this one up today. No attack of any kind. The movement was launched on the FTSE, where 8.33 Million shares traded, as opposed to the average of 1.79 Million. This started around 11am.

4. Tencent went up in Hong Kong. Also on above average volumes. Both SAB and NPN are foreign held companies. We simply don't have control over the share price or volume traded.

5. Using a simple average weighted formula, these two counters contributed roughly 80% of the move on the ALSI.

6. Every man and his dog is short of the market. This is only the start of the short squeeze. If we build momentum on the SAB rumour, together with option strikes, we will run up all the way to  46500.

 

This is my opinion, and you are more than welcome to differ - that is what this forum is for!

 

Thanks for all your inputs.

 

 

Hi Ben 

 

 

Thanks for the response! and i agree with you 200%..your opinion and my opinion may be different,,,thats what makes healthy debates!!

As i concluded in my post, mine was just a theory what i felt happened, i could be right i could be wrong!

Probable, possible, impossible , improbable....your guess is good as mine...but at least we are thinking to see the variious options out there!!  Today was an unusual day, very unusual, with ftse and to a degree thankng but we shooting the lights out without any pullbacks whatsoever. In fact my CCI system usually gives us an average 4 trade signals a day and guess what...Today we had zero. Thise who missed the 8.30am bus never got a chance to get in.Simply amazing!!

 

Anyway without getting too argumentative id like to go through some of your inputs...

 

1. 80b or 8b is still a lot of money...can break any market maker!

 

2. FX markets are totally unregulated and one player can move the currency big time. This has been MMs ammo for ages but today this came back to bite him.Depends on who has the deeper pockets and who how much is at stake.

 

3. SAB : dont read too much on these market commentators as the first thing that comes to thier mind when a share shoots the lights out is " Takeover"  At a 30p/e and so expensive, do you really think any share with that P/E will run up 5% on market rumours especially with a market cap of over a trillion?  and yes could that increase in volume be realted to Player buyiing that underline? Deep pockets and lots at risk remember..

 

4. Please do some homework on ten cent daily closing price and compare it to NPN daily closing price. NPN usually follows tencent. I keep track of it everyday. Please tell me if NPN has ever closed % age higher than then % age higher close of ten cent. It rarely, if not has ever happened!! NPN is used a number of tims by the MMs to take alsi higher or lower but by end od day it normally follows ten cents but the increase is always a lower %age. Today was different. NPN went up 4.02% compared to Tencents 2.44!!! Why the sudden disparity?

 

5. this is a known fact which i also proved. and exactly my point...Player A played these 2 stocks to gain market traction!

 

6. Totally disagee with you there. Yeah if u said every man in the street and every uneducated trader i will agree. But the technicals still point to a move much higher!

 

So you have your points and i have mine!! Which is right or wrong, the market only knows!!!

 

This market is a casino. The house always wins right? Well in my view some bright spark with deep pockets is trying to prove that theory wrong!!

 

Well this is just my opinion!!!

[grantmu]

HDB

 

1. The R80B story is nonsense. Someone misquoted Garth Mackenzie here. He mentioned a total exposure value of R8Billion on TC. Option strikes are long deltas from 45 850 and upwards.

2. FX markets are orders of magnitude bigger than our equity market. To think that a single player can launch a calculated, daily attack on the rand is far stretched in my opinion. The Street and the Reserve Bank will realise this very quickly.

3. SAB: Rumours of a buy-out/merger with Anheuser-Busch (ABI) send this one up today. No attack of any kind. The movement was launched on the FTSE, where 8.33 Million shares traded, as opposed to the average of 1.79 Million. This started around 11am.

4. Tencent went up in Hong Kong. Also on above average volumes. Both SAB and NPN are foreign held companies. We simply don't have control over the share price or volume traded.

5. Using a simple average weighted formula, these two counters contributed roughly 80% of the move on the ALSI.

6. Every man and his dog is short of the market. This is only the start of the short squeeze. If we build momentum on the SAB rumour, together with option strikes, we will run up all the way to  46500.

 

This is my opinion, and you are more than welcome to differ - that is what this forum is for!

 

Thanks for all your inputs.

Your explanations are truly appreciated. As a small trader it is very difficult to understand some of the more violent or sudden moves the market makes. having said that an understanding of the problem does help to plan the following days and what positions the smaller trader is going to take. 

 

I would pay to have had this knowledge during the trading day today, is there some place that offers a streaming commentary of markets even if it costs me money.

[JJBen]

HDB

 

1. The R80B story is nonsense. Someone misquoted Garth Mackenzie here. He mentioned a total exposure value of R8Billion on TC. Option strikes are long deltas from 45 850 and upwards.

2. FX markets are orders of magnitude bigger than our equity market. To think that a single player can launch a calculated, daily attack on the rand is far stretched in my opinion. The Street and the Reserve Bank will realise this very quickly.

3. SAB: Rumours of a buy-out/merger with Anheuser-Busch (ABI) send this one up today. No attack of any kind. The movement was launched on the FTSE, where 8.33 Million shares traded, as opposed to the average of 1.79 Million. This started around 11am.

4. Tencent went up in Hong Kong. Also on above average volumes. Both SAB and NPN are foreign held companies. We simply don't have control over the share price or volume traded.

5. Using a simple average weighted formula, these two counters contributed roughly 80% of the move on the ALSI.

6. Every man and his dog is short of the market. This is only the start of the short squeeze. If we build momentum on the SAB rumour, together with option strikes, we will run up all the way to  46500.

 

This is my opinion, and you are more than welcome to differ - that is what this forum is for!

 

Thanks for all your inputs.