35854 replies to this topic

[Plasma]

closed short 44800..opened long 44792

closed long on limit order for 110p @44902

Closed 3 pips below you...

[delta66]

closed short 44800..opened long 44792

closed long on limit order for 110p @44902

[Beorn]

Has Putin made a deal with the West to keep supplying it with gas if it doesn't interfere in Ukraine, via some supply line?

There is clearly civil war in Ukraine, (Ukrainians vs Russian separatists).

Yet, no intervention from the West? Just some weak sanctions.

Clearly if this continues and Russia stops gas supply, Europe will eventually freeze.

 

None of this seems to be priced in?

[Argento]

Last 3 days higher lows, so guess trend is up again, or who's fooling who?

Also getting the graph limit upload error!

 

This could be a B leg up with C wave down to come into the 11-13th June....still got that target of 43700ish!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 03 June 2014 - 09:37 AM.

[BBW]

Last 3 days higher lows, so guess trend is up again, or who's fooling who?

[delta66]

should of left that short at 44800 ..will take back some later mr market   

[Argento]

Don't see us getting to 46000 just yet, any new high will be accompanied by strong daily negative divergence and be more bearish for a leg down into mid month..!

 

But for continuing up into friday (NFP) it is very possible...she is dancing around that 30min bullish cross again!

 

A

30min bullish cross not confirmed yet....just to add!

 

A

[Argento]

Underlying fundamentals and seasonality charts might have a bearish tinge to it but for now I'm again assuming that while the SP500 is above 1900 our low is already in(44000). Bounce off 650 was gud..any successful retest  tomorrow might see us targeting 46000 and 46400 in the next 2 weeks

Don't see us getting to 46000 just yet, any new high will be accompanied by strong daily negative divergence and be more bearish for a leg down into mid month..!

 

But for continuing up into friday (NFP) it is very possible...she is dancing around that 30min bullish cross again!

 

A

[delta66]

closed short 44800..opened long 44792

[Plasma]

IGM Cash 24h data


R3. 45261

R2. 45018

R1. 44916

P. 44775

S1. 44673

S2. 44532

S3. 44289

IG ProRealtime market hours data

R3. 45158
R2. 45017
R1. 44916
P. 44774
S1. 44673
S2. 44532
S3. 44431


Only R3 and S3 appears to be significantly off..

Hi K...if I change the R3 and S3 formula, then we are on par again....

Support Level 3 = Pivot Point - (Resistance Level 2 - Support Level 2)

Need to check the other one I had, ie pivot point - 2x(high-low)

[K~~]

IGM Cash 24h data

R3. 45261
R2. 45018
R1. 44916
P. 44775
S1. 44673
S2. 44532
S3. 44289

IG ProRealtime market hours data

 

R3. 45158

R2. 45017

R1. 44916

P. 44774

S1. 44673

S2. 44532

S3. 44431

 

Only R3 and S3 appears to be significantly off..

[delta66]

IGM Cash 24h data

R3. 45261
R2. 45018
R1. 44916
P. 44775
S1. 44673
S2. 44532
S3. 44289

yep, got the same P..won't be making same mistake as yesterday

[Plasma]

IGM Cash 24h data

R3. 45261
R2. 45018
R1. 44916
P. 44775
S1. 44673
S2. 44532
S3. 44289

[AJS]

Go to  traders-software.com/Free%20Download/  and download: Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter; Elliott Wave Principle for Forex by Robert Balan. Start reading, read again and again

Feel free to repost - there is no copyright on my thoughts.

 

Thanks for this - it really is a good read! (Busy with the first book)

[Vertebrae]

Increase of noise & usual lack of reason here, just beggars belief.

Won't waste any more battery here.

 

 

Next This week is choppy. This is presently a wave (iv) which is either sharp or complex.

This one is complex, but with a limited downside risk.

I am confident with my (long) holdings and generous stops.

So time to go for a remote lotek hike for a week or so.

 

In meantime any who may want can have my thoughts - right here...

 

1. Have confidence in the trend, the chart pattern, and what you expect next.
2. If #1. is not happening for you, wait until it does (study basic Elliott wave theory & practice).
3.  Use Fibonacci in combination with wave theory.
4. Go to  traders-software.com/Free%20Download/  and download: Elliott Wave Principle by Frost & Prechter; Elliott Wave Principle for Forex by Robert Balan. Start reading, read again and again.
5. Keep predicting even when not trading. Learn from each and every prediction mistake.
6. Know the risk & reward and be guided by it.
7. Employ a clear buy and sell strategy that suits you. Do not over-commit.
8. Hold those maturing, with-the-trend trades using increasing trailing stops (staying in-the-money, but only once well-established there) until target zone reached. Big winners need room to breathe.
9. Control those counter-trend trades with tighter stops.
10. Check Caldaro’s index charts via caldaro.wordpress.com for index wave count comparisons.
11. Never blindly believe or copy anyone, not ever – not even semi-blindly.
12. Avoid short-term, hit-and-run trades (Feeding a broker is same as feeding horses).
13. Say out loud: Predictions that lack reliable analysis-supported reasoning are pure guesswork.
14. Ignore all predictions except your own that you have sufficient confidence in.
15. Stop looking for distractions, trading is work – regard it as such.
16. Avoid over-confidence and jumping the gun. Blind faith is not faith – it is lazy needy greedy.
17. Have confidence in the trend, the chart pattern, and what you expect next.
18. If #17. is not happening for you, wait until it does. Refer to 4. & 15.

Feel free to repost - there is no copyright on my thoughts.

[HDB]

If they cant get the data right the first time , how can you trust them!!

Im sure lots took trades as the first incorrect data came out!!

 

Quote per Bloomberg:

 

“The correction improved market direction modestly,” Stephen Carl, principal and head equity trader at New York-based Williams Capital Group LP, said in a phone interview. “Going forward, you’re looking for expected improvement in the ISM number, so maybe this just adds to it. Overall, it wasn’t a big, meaningful change, but there was certainly a reaction in the market.”

The ISM originally said its May manufacturing index fell to 53.2 from 54.9 a month earlier, before correcting it twice, once to 56 and a second time to 55.4. Fifty is the dividing line between growth and contraction. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a gain to 55.5.

The ISM corrected the index more than two hours after its initial 10 a.m. release, saying that it had applied the wrong seasonal adjustment to the data."

 

Now this is thuggery as work!!

[delta66]

if I start to make millions well all good, if I make a living also good, as long as I have fun doing it even better. 

very well said.

[grantmu]

grant..thanks for your post.  many ways one could approach trading the index based on personal risk criteria but don't be to quick writing off intra day, some tag 700-1000p/week consistently.  the issue when trading on daily targets is the stress..its a constant, i mean..it never lets up(excepting weekends)

It is for the stress reason that I came up with alternatives, some worked and some were a catastrophe, still don't think I have what I want but it is getting there. I have in the past been able to hit a few good targets and managed to make more money than ! lost. Better than 2 to 1. I am very close to what I want as a trading system, just have to finish working out the timing and were the stop levels work best so that I don't get inadvertent blow outs. I reckon another month to get the bugs worked out, then throw some bigger money at the thing and see if it pays off. 

 

if I start to make millions well all good, if I make a living also good, as long as I have fun doing it even better. 

[Plasma]

grant..thanks for your post. many ways one could approach trading the index based on personal risk criteria but don't be to quick writing off intra day, some tag 700-1000p/week consistently. the issue when trading on daily targets is the stress..its a constant, i mean..it never lets up(excepting weekends)

Ja, some of us are more stress addicts than others

[delta66]

grant..thanks for your post.  many ways one could approach trading the index based on personal risk criteria but don't be to quick writing off intra day, some tag 700-1000p/week consistently.  the issue when trading on daily targets is the stress..its a constant, i mean..it never lets up(excepting weekends)