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ALSI Trades


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#22981 Sunesis

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 07:47 PM

A look @ the performance of the Nikkei, S&P and J200 against each other. (Monthly chart)

 

Interesting notes on the 3 previous Nikkei "crashes" 

 

• 1996 It started with the Nikkei on 28 June and thank's to the ".com bubble" the S&P just keep going north while the J200 was making new high's till 31 July '97 and only then followed the Nikkei downwards.

 

• 2000 The decline on the Nikkei started on 31 March, the S&P 5 month's later on 31 Aug (when the bubble burst) and the J200 zigzag upwards making new highs (ignoring both the Nikkei and S&P) till 31 May 2002.

 

• 2007 The Nikkei started on 29 June and the S&P 4 month's later on 31 Oct and the J200 again making new high's till 30 May 08.

 

It will be realy interesting to see how things are going to play out in the next Nikkei crash, whenever that happens!

Nice read.

 

We have Japan tax hike on April 1st. The last time Japan had a tax hike, the Nikkei crashed and never recovered until today.

Based on your stats, April 1st in in the middle on March and June when Nikkei usually crashes.

 

I expect the Japanese to launch another stimulus program, including aggressive monetary easing, that will most likely start sometime in the second half and trigger the next phase of Nikkei bull trend.

The Bank of Japan is aware of this and has recently stopped buying Japan Gov Bonds  to make room for more aggressive steps later. 

 

The BOJ will support Nikkei, the question is when will they start.

 

A weak Nikkei will make USD weak. This will drive gold and metal prices up, hence J200 might be supported by mining stocks like BHP and Anglo. This might also explain why J200 tends to be supported when Nikkei is falling


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#22982 Mhlato

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 06:39 PM

what is your take on the strange market Mhlato? - so many convinced this is going pop and fall every day many others again expect reaching trendline target of 1965 on S&P as if all obstacles to growth has been ironed out.

 

Ocean, i have seen on Google Finance a guy mention 1900 on the S&P by July...

 

My take on the J200 is that if you are not long in the market atm....stay out. Too late to long and too early to short. Naturally with a longer term trade in mind, not scalping.

 

I will start looking to short once the J210 reaches 58,000 + but will then first take a in depth look @ the J211 because we might see more upward movement there, cancelling out a pullback on the J210 because the latter carries less weight in the J200 atm.

 

And then i will let the 20EMA on my "thighy" guide me further iff in doubt!


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"Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done, except by liars." - Bernard Baruch


#22983 OceanWalz

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 06:02 PM

A look @ the performance of the Nikkei, S&P and J200 against each other. (Monthly chart)

 

Interesting notes on the 3 previous Nikkei "crashes" 

 

• 1996 It started with the Nikkei on 28 June and thank's to the ".com bubble" the S&P just keep going north while the J200 was making new high's till 31 July '97 and only then followed the Nikkei downwards.

 

• 2000 The decline on the Nikkei started on 31 March, the S&P 5 month's later on 31 Aug (when the bubble burst) and the J200 zigzag upwards making new highs (ignoring both the Nikkei and S&P) till 31 May 2002.

 

• 2007 The Nikkei started on 29 June and the S&P 4 month's later on 31 Oct and the J200 again making new high's till 30 May 08.

 

It will be realy interesting to see how things are going to play out in the next Nikkei crash, whenever that happens!

what is your take on the strange market Mhlato? - so many convinced this is going pop and fall every day many others again expect reaching trendline target of 1965 on S&P as if all obstacles to growth has been ironed out.


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#22984 Mhlato

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 05:48 PM

A look @ the performance of the Nikkei, S&P and J200 against each other. (Monthly chart)

 

Interesting notes on the 3 previous Nikkei "crashes" 

 

• 1996 It started with the Nikkei on 28 June and thank's to the ".com bubble" the S&P just keep going north while the J200 was making new high's till 31 July '97 and only then followed the Nikkei downwards.

 

• 2000 The decline on the Nikkei started on 31 March, the S&P 5 month's later on 31 Aug (when the bubble burst) and the J200 zigzag upwards making new highs (ignoring both the Nikkei and S&P) till 31 May 2002.

 

• 2007 The Nikkei started on 29 June and the S&P 4 month's later on 31 Oct and the J200 again making new high's till 30 May 08.

 

It will be realy interesting to see how things are going to play out in the next Nikkei crash, whenever that happens!

 

 

Attached Files


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"Don't try to buy at the bottom and sell at the top. It can't be done, except by liars." - Bernard Baruch


#22985 AJS

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 03:07 PM

Good! As long as you didn't crash your yacht and chopper! :D<br /><br />Sent from my GT-I9100 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app<br /><br />
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"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#22986 Sunesis

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Posted 16 February 2014 - 12:06 AM

Welcome back S!

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Was on Holiday

 

I never had a break for almost a year.

 

Back to business now


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#22987 AJS

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Posted 15 February 2014 - 11:26 PM


Time to close our shorts and go long?


Welcome back S!

Sent from my GT-I9100 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app
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"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#22988 Sunesis

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Posted 15 February 2014 - 08:59 PM

Time to close our shorts and go long?

Nikkeibreakdownthinicefeb12.jpg


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#22989 Guest_Dentarg_*

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Posted 15 February 2014 - 08:28 AM

Time to close our shorts and go long?


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#22990 AJS

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Posted 15 February 2014 - 08:16 AM

No end in sight for this bullet train.  Is now almost a 12% absolute move since the move from the high to the low to where it is now!  This is despite all the negative divergence.

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#22991 bear catcher

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 10:01 PM

Short 42228 . The top is in on IG Haha the Jamesons got the better of me Oh and i support the Stormers so up the Bulls
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IG CASH


#22992 Beorn

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 05:26 PM

Shorted just before close and will keep open for few days looking for pullback. The market has run to fast. Would loved to short at 42400 today. Monday there will prop be chance but i did not want to take chance.

 

I dont understand Naspers and why that happened but prop again bad news is good news and good is good.

 

Look at bitcoin. Maybe the stocks will do the same..........

 

Monday is US Bank holiday, dont expect to much volume, so we will probably go higher again


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Alsi future

 

I only post my views, not advice


#22993 CPvanWyk

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 05:07 PM

Shorted just before close and will keep open for few days looking for pullback. The market has run to fast. Would loved to short at 42400 today. Monday there will prop be chance but i did not want to take chance.

 

I dont understand Naspers and why that happened but prop again bad news is good news and good is good.

 

Look at bitcoin. Maybe the stocks will do the same..........

 

 


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#22994 Beorn

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 04:57 PM

Naspers is up 2.46%

 

and BHP yes, but why are they all up?


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Alsi future

 

I only post my views, not advice


#22995 CPvanWyk

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 04:51 PM

Naspers is up 2.46%


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#22996 Beorn

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 04:47 PM

Closed and short @ 42085

 

Closed @ 42000

 

on another note, somewhere there has to be incorrect pricing of the Alsi today? ZAR is stronger and US and Ftse are red, why are we up?


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Alsi future

 

I only post my views, not advice


#22997 Beorn

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 04:24 PM

So we have become the investors dream,the market just keeps powering on with no heed given to anything.

Very strange to me.


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Alsi future

 

I only post my views, not advice


#22998 OceanWalz

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 04:09 PM

got below from a DBank view - sorry for big mouth full but might interest some here - :
 
the underlying global economic recovery, driven by decline of fiscal
austerity and continued monetary policy support in advanced economies, remains on track
In the US, the underlying trend remains consistent with 2014 growth of above 3% p.a. The European recovery is at a less advanced stage, but remains positive and by some measures, has reached the highest level in 2½ years.
The continued strength of the US recovery means the Fed will continue with its ongoing strategy of monetary policy normalisation that began with tapering in December 2013. The normalisation process has raised concerns because past episodes of a tightening have led to EM crises (notably Asia in 1997/98). However, 2014 is unlikely to prove as destructive—on most economic metrics, EMs are stronger today than in previous years. Instead, we expect continued differentiation between healthier EMs and the
weaker ones Equities continue to price in the macro recovery, with valuations in many sectors implying strong earnings growth. The asset class remains vulnerable to a delay in the expected upturn of global growth if earnings revisions remain negative.
 
Accommodative central bank policies can continue to support prices in the near-term, though sustained appreciation will require the stronger economic growth. In this kind of environment, stock selection continues to be key to future returns.
Expect global growth to accelerate throughout 2014. Mixed data in the last few months not a cause for concern at this stage 
---
The ‘good decade’ for EM economies and assets is behind us. Between 2002 and 2011, strong China growth, higher
commodity prices and a decline in global interest rates allowed incomes in EM economy to grow rapidly and EM assets to outperform, attracting a significant inflow of capital.
But since 2011, it has become clearer that a number of these tailwinds and the growth rates of the past would be hard to replicate. In most cases, the need to slow economies to a sustainable pace of growth was not well understood early on. This has led to the build-up of significant imbalances: large current account deficits – which equate to the need for substantial external financing – to support unsustainable levels of spending. Those imbalances were reinforced by measures taken to boost demand in the face of US (and broader DM) economic weakness and monetary easing.
Addressing these economic imbalances requires weaker currencies and higher bond yields in significant parts of EM. Both adjustments are underway.
---
deficit economies exhibiting limited signs of  external adjustment, such as S outh A frica, but alsoTurkey and Brazil, pressure on exchange rates to depreciate will remain. $/ZAR levels between 12.60 and 13.20 is possible ---  Currency depreciation and real rate increases in the least healthy parts of the EM universe may have collateral damage for more healthy parts

Edited by OceanWalz, 14 February 2014 - 04:12 PM.

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#22999 Argento

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 04:05 PM

Hi O,

 

She is now moving within this bull channel so after next weeks pullback she should aim for moving past the 43000 level!

 

We should see some weakness in March as well but the euphoria phase is just getting started and at the end we could aim for the top of the channel before this bullmarket \ 7 year cycle tops....

 

A

Never sell a dull market...can only hope for a pullback to get in but afraid she is aiming for new highs...bullish cross on the 5H confirmed!

 

A


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"Never never never give up!"



 


 

 
 

 


#23000 Beorn

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Posted 14 February 2014 - 03:47 PM

I'm long @ 42024.

 

Looks like there are more fools buying in, so I will follow.

 

Closed and short @ 42085


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Alsi future

 

I only post my views, not advice






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