A look @ the performance of the Nikkei, S&P and J200 against each other. (Monthly chart)
Interesting notes on the 3 previous Nikkei "crashes"
• 1996 It started with the Nikkei on 28 June and thank's to the ".com bubble" the S&P just keep going north while the J200 was making new high's till 31 July '97 and only then followed the Nikkei downwards.
• 2000 The decline on the Nikkei started on 31 March, the S&P 5 month's later on 31 Aug (when the bubble burst) and the J200 zigzag upwards making new highs (ignoring both the Nikkei and S&P) till 31 May 2002.
• 2007 The Nikkei started on 29 June and the S&P 4 month's later on 31 Oct and the J200 again making new high's till 30 May 08.
It will be realy interesting to see how things are going to play out in the next Nikkei crash, whenever that happens!
Nice read.
We have Japan tax hike on April 1st. The last time Japan had a tax hike, the Nikkei crashed and never recovered until today.
Based on your stats, April 1st in in the middle on March and June when Nikkei usually crashes.
I expect the Japanese to launch another stimulus program, including aggressive monetary easing, that will most likely start sometime in the second half and trigger the next phase of Nikkei bull trend.
The Bank of Japan is aware of this and has recently stopped buying Japan Gov Bonds to make room for more aggressive steps later.
The BOJ will support Nikkei, the question is when will they start.
A weak Nikkei will make USD weak. This will drive gold and metal prices up, hence J200 might be supported by mining stocks like BHP and Anglo. This might also explain why J200 tends to be supported when Nikkei is falling