35854 replies to this topic

[davidp13]

So i have my longs in play as i bought the dips dip Will we go back down to below 40000 before a move back up or is this only going up up and away? Anyone have a view?

And yes I am skeptical cause this market is like that girl in the club looking at you and smiling and in actual fact she looking at herself in the mirror behind you if you catch my drift.

[mx125]

Do we take profits now and buy the dip again, or do we hang on and buy the dip anyway....... if it dips.<br /><br /><br />Sent from my GT-N8000 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app<br /><br />

[davidp13]

So i have my longs in play as i bought the dips dip Will we go back down to below 40000 before a move back up or is this only going up up and away? Anyone have a view?

[Sunesis]

P..we have all been there..Iv been there several times..and likely to go there in future again along with everyone else. Was it because of a simple miscalculation on your part? that can be fixed and learnt from. If it was because a biased was formed based on opinion on the forum and you just didn't let it go? I suppose thats a personal question that only you can answer. There is no train or express, only a chart that moves up and down.  You are doing all the hard graft already! Now do the easy part as well and make that money!

 

 

The market doesn’t know your emotions or care about your portfolio. The market is moving on. And so should you.” – Terry Savage

One of the most challenging aspects of trading is learning to understand and appreciate that our constant desire to be right and smart in the markets will always cloud our judgment and too often work against us at the most inconvenient times.

In this current bull stampede, there are unfortunately too many traders and investors who are short or sidelined and now in desperate need for the market to move lower. How do I know this happening? This past week alone I received dozens of emails from those who expressed utter confusion and disappointment in why I’m not paying much attention to a number of bearish factors (i.e. low volume, overbought conditions, VIX readings, earnings/data not surpassing expectations, Baltic Dry Index, poor February seasonality, etc.) My reply in every single case was the following:

“The price action remains positively firm and our job is to be aligned with the price action as long as it remains that way. While that doesn’t mean we ignore the risks or think this market is somehow has magically become invincible, we have to constantly align our positions in the direction that offers the great probability for profit. In this environment that means you stay opportunistically bullish until we see that change. And, don’t worry – I’ll be here to help you see that change as soon as it happens.”

The challenge, as all of us will learn soon or later learn, is that Mr. Market doesn’t listen or care about anyone’s else opinion but his very own. This is especially true when we are wrong and not following his hidden and often very confusing agenda. Mr. Market often acts like a rebellious teenager and does exactly what he wants to do, when he wants to do it, and at the same time pays no respect for anyone who disagrees with him or believe he should act logically or within reason. In fact, a recent tendency is for the market to do exactly the opposite of tendencies we’ve seen so many times before. This is why you must place so much importance on what the market is actually doing rather than what you think it should do.

In truth, we’ve all been there, haven’t we? I know I have. In fact, more times I can even recall or really care to admit. I have also wasted and missed far too many opportunities by devoting precious time and energy looking for reasons to justify mistakes I have already made hoping that somehow that will make it better or help me to overcome my disappointment in my bottom line performance. Unfortunately, that never works and, even worse, only increases the pain and lengthens period of poor performance. This is not good especially if you are trying to make a living from trading!

While I know many of you don’t want it, here is some free advice for those who were positioned wrong for the past few weeks and who are significantly under performing so far this year. Your job right now is not to spend a moment longer asserting you were just early (which is the equivalent of being wrong in this game) but rather own up to the mistake and then figure out why the mistake was made. After you do that, it is just as important to figure out what lessons there are to be learned so you don’t repeat the same mistake again. In simple, ask yourself this – what could you have done differently or better to have profited more since this rally began? That’s the question to ask right now. Once you have your answer, then move on.

In my experience, that’s what winners do that losers do not. And, since we all desire to be winners, that’s what you need to do right now to get back on track especially if your among the many who have been left in the dust in this bull stampede!

- See more at: http://www.kirkrepor...h.NURQ60vf.dpuf

Read of the Year

[Lekkerry]

Plasma, with all sincerity: “Ag nee boet!” You know it, you really do know it, but you are trading with little, if any regard to a sound trading regime nor any regard for a preservation money management approach. I know you know, but consider it again, please.

 

Here is an idea. Take today’s pain, the hard facts and write it down in bold:

• what your plan was for each trade (the reason behind it),
• what transpired,
• what your thoughts were and
• what the end (net) result was (related to your plan / reasoning was).

 

Put it down logically, easy to read and easy to scan quickly. Now next time, when you enter a trade, measure it against this “memoires of a trade” you have captured. More importantly, when the trade starts running against you, read this “memoires of a trade” repeatedly and assess if you are doing the same. It might not work the first time, then what you do, you create another field on this “memoires of a trade” and name it REOCCURENCES. After a couple of times of following the same path, you might start reconsidering a losing trade because you see the outcome is short of predictable.

 

Back to ALSI; FWIW, you say that you can’t partake in the feast now, but I am not overly confident of a massive upheaving for ALSI just yet. Reasons being our sell-off came late in the day with a gradual decline earlier. ALSI might have been stopped, but is the local sentiment enough to undo most of the damage of yesterday just yet? I reckon I will know in 5 or 6 hours’ time of writing this. I am really resisting the urge to climb in with a long now.

 

What is the alternative? I am wrong, but if so, today might produce many opportunities of buy high / sell higher!  

 

Nobody else to share with....my sorry tale of today.

Tuesday was great....even the 2 silly longs last night. Went long this morning during the dip...2 longs at different levels. Then we dropped some more. Decided to hedge with a short ....and did not tick force open ...thus both longs got closed. Since it was a large amount relative to my account, I then was forced to take a smaller long a bit later and made up about a third of the loss.

Then went long again....no stop loss...over confident in the bull. Well, we had the drop and drop, and my account took severe critical strain by the time I saw it. Then all tempts to save the day went for a ball...

Now we are nearly back where I started this morning...and I am not able to jump on train...since I said if I loose this money, then will only trade next year again....thus not touching my other capital.

This is hard ...and flippen sad

[Shortboy]

Nobody else to share with....my sorry tale of today.

Tuesday was great....even the 2 silly longs last night. Went long this morning during the dip...2 longs at different levels. Then we dropped some more. Decided to hedge with a short ....and did not tick force open ...thus both longs got closed. Since it was a large amount relative to my account, I then was forced to take a smaller long a bit later and made up about a third of the loss.

Then went long again....no stop loss...over confident in the bull. Well, we had the drop and drop, and my account took severe critical strain by the time I saw it. Then all tempts to save the day went for a ball...

Now we are nearly back where I started this morning...and I am not able to jump on train...since I said if I loose this money, then will only trade next year again....thus not touching my other capital.

This is hard ...and flippen sad

Don't get caught up in all the theory P! Don't go!

 

Cant remember which forum member's motto this is, but every time I do a trade it burns in my brain.....the market always proves you wrong...........just before it proves you right! That lesson cost me an aggregated booked loss of R80k in my first 2 weeks of trading and has proved itself true time and again.

 

Things are different now. I wait for the afternoon story. If its been a down day I buy the F*** dip in anticipation of short covering. If its been an up day I wait for an extended spike which I can sell into. For me, its all about where I "see" the most longs or shorts lying. Those overweight positions are what I think the traders with big pockets are targeting, little guys like me with thin S/Ls.

 

Still learning, not making a living out of it yet, but still here.

[davidp13]

P..we have all been there..Iv been there several times..and likely to go there in future again along with everyone else. Was it because of a simple miscalculation on your part? that can be fixed and learnt from. If it was because a biased was formed based on opinion on the forum and you just didn't let it go? I suppose thats a personal question that only you can answer. There is no train or express, only a chart that moves up and down.  You are doing all the hard graft already! Now do the easy part as well and make that money!

 

 

The market doesn’t know your emotions or care about your portfolio. The market is moving on. And so should you.” – Terry Savage

One of the most challenging aspects of trading is learning to understand and appreciate that our constant desire to be right and smart in the markets will always cloud our judgment and too often work against us at the most inconvenient times.

In this current bull stampede, there are unfortunately too many traders and investors who are short or sidelined and now in desperate need for the market to move lower. How do I know this happening? This past week alone I received dozens of emails from those who expressed utter confusion and disappointment in why I’m not paying much attention to a number of bearish factors (i.e. low volume, overbought conditions, VIX readings, earnings/data not surpassing expectations, Baltic Dry Index, poor February seasonality, etc.) My reply in every single case was the following:

“The price action remains positively firm and our job is to be aligned with the price action as long as it remains that way. While that doesn’t mean we ignore the risks or think this market is somehow has magically become invincible, we have to constantly align our positions in the direction that offers the great probability for profit. In this environment that means you stay opportunistically bullish until we see that change. And, don’t worry – I’ll be here to help you see that change as soon as it happens.”

The challenge, as all of us will learn soon or later learn, is that Mr. Market doesn’t listen or care about anyone’s else opinion but his very own. This is especially true when we are wrong and not following his hidden and often very confusing agenda. Mr. Market often acts like a rebellious teenager and does exactly what he wants to do, when he wants to do it, and at the same time pays no respect for anyone who disagrees with him or believe he should act logically or within reason. In fact, a recent tendency is for the market to do exactly the opposite of tendencies we’ve seen so many times before. This is why you must place so much importance on what the market is actually doing rather than what you think it should do.

In truth, we’ve all been there, haven’t we? I know I have. In fact, more times I can even recall or really care to admit. I have also wasted and missed far too many opportunities by devoting precious time and energy looking for reasons to justify mistakes I have already made hoping that somehow that will make it better or help me to overcome my disappointment in my bottom line performance. Unfortunately, that never works and, even worse, only increases the pain and lengthens period of poor performance. This is not good especially if you are trying to make a living from trading!

While I know many of you don’t want it, here is some free advice for those who were positioned wrong for the past few weeks and who are significantly under performing so far this year. Your job right now is not to spend a moment longer asserting you were just early (which is the equivalent of being wrong in this game) but rather own up to the mistake and then figure out why the mistake was made. After you do that, it is just as important to figure out what lessons there are to be learned so you don’t repeat the same mistake again. In simple, ask yourself this – what could you have done differently or better to have profited more since this rally began? That’s the question to ask right now. Once you have your answer, then move on.

In my experience, that’s what winners do that losers do not. And, since we all desire to be winners, that’s what you need to do right now to get back on track especially if your among the many who have been left in the dust in this bull stampede!

- See more at: http://www.kirkrepor...h.NURQ60vf.dpuf

S is going to love this piece...

[Lamarje]

EXPRESS TRAIN IS HERE

 

Those who were brave in the afternoon and bought between 39800 and 40000, keep youR longs. We are going to be rewarded tomorrow 

The 5 leg correction is finished.        

Too late for me to jump on?

[Sunesis]

EXPRESS TRAIN IS HERE

 

Those who were brave in the afternoon and bought between 39800 and 40000, keep youR longs. We are going to be rewarded tomorrow 

The 5 leg correction is finished.        

[Sunesis]

This waves are interesting for the bulls and bears.

Bears know it will hit 39800, so they stay short. And hope it hits and breaks it.

Bulls know that 39800 is coming, they hope it hits and bounces.

 

What i can say is that both bulls and bears are making money at the moment.

When market is playing mind games like this, its best to stay with your bias.

If you start chopping and changing everyday, you will loose money.

 

Trend is your friend, the rest is just noise        

Plasma, you should have read this.

Stick with the trend

[Mad Max]

Nobody else to share with....my sorry tale of today.

Tuesday was great....even the 2 silly longs last night. Went long this morning during the dip...2 longs at different levels. Then we dropped some more. Decided to hedge with a short ....and did not tick force open ...thus both longs got closed. Since it was a large amount relative to my account, I then was forced to take a smaller long a bit later and made up about a third of the loss.

Then went long again....no stop loss...over confident in the bull. Well, we had the drop and drop, and my account took severe critical strain by the time I saw it. Then all tempts to save the day went for a ball...

Now we are nearly back where I started this morning...and I am not able to jump on train...since I said if I loose this money, then will only trade next year again....thus not touching my other capital.

This is hard ...and flippen sad

Hope you make it through!

[Plasma]

Nobody else to share with....my sorry tale of today.

Tuesday was great....even the 2 silly longs last night. Went long this morning during the dip...2 longs at different levels. Then we dropped some more. Decided to hedge with a short ....and did not tick force open ...thus both longs got closed. Since it was a large amount relative to my account, I then was forced to take a smaller long a bit later and made up about a third of the loss.

Then went long again....no stop loss...over confident in the bull. Well, we had the drop and drop, and my account took severe critical strain by the time I saw it. Then all tempts to save the day went for a ball...

Now we are nearly back where I started this morning...and I am not able to jump on train...since I said if I loose this money, then will only trade next year again....thus not touching my other capital.

This is hard ...and flippen sad

[Lamarje]

I'm not bullish or bearish but see a head and shoulders reversal pattern has happened and this could just be a retrace...long term trend is bullish...short term is bearish but tomorrow we will experience a lift in the markets....

 

my 2c

[Sunesis]

I think we will be lucky if we go up +- .9% tomorrow.

I can't see that happening though.

But I do not have a crystal ball, so I will stick to the trend as and where it goes. 

Trend is Bullish.

Correction is over. The 5 waves are complete

[Beorn]

I think we will have a 2% up day tomorrow. Green GREEN GREEN

 

I think we will be lucky if we go up +- .9% tomorrow.

I can't see that happening though.

But I do not have a crystal ball, so I will stick to the trend as and where it goes. 

Edited by Jakes, 21 November 2013 - 08:26 PM.

[Sunesis]

I think we will have a 2% up day tomorrow. Green GREEN GREEN

US still holding strong.

4hours to go. 

We have FED bullard speaking at 20h00, he is a hawk. Just hope he does not say anything stupid

US markets still holding above pivot

[Mad Max]

have to disagree there S..Think we are as low as we will go for awhile

I think we will have a 2% up day tomorrow. Green GREEN GREEN

[Sunesis]

have to disagree there S..Think we are as low as we will go for awhile

It was just my 2c.

As i still say, US close will decide our fate tomorrow.

So far so good in US markets, 5 hours to go for bulls to feel some relief.

 

A lot can happen in 5 hours in the markets.

[massimo]

Went long at 40000

 

Lets see how the US closes.

[Sunesis]

Senate Banking committee confirms Janet Yellen to be new Fed chair, 14-8; nomination now goes to full Senate

 

Have a feeling we are going to deep tonight, then Asia will take us higher. Then London will the start the bull run.

But the market needs to just flush out a few stops below 39800 overnight.

It usually happens before a bull run starts.