35854 replies to this topic

[joker]

Have you read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas?

 

No I haven't. Something about the psychology of investing? 

 

I should probably be more positive. I started trading 3 weeks ago, and in one day I've lost just about everything I made. I'm starting to understand the idea of risk/reward ratios now.

 

As a side note, how does one set a stop loss to spare themselves from the damage of an opening drop gap like today. Is it possible?

[Argento]

Depends on your strategy, if you are willing to hold until next friday to catch the whole ride down keep your shorts, with friday afternoon you sometimes have short cover and with Monday being US holiday we normally go up...so I would lock in those profits and have a nice weekend away!

 

She tends to return to the broken 60min chart 89 MA that is about 250 points up so she should bounce (B leg up) next week before the last leg © down..but she can always continue south too, your choice!

 

A

Difficult to believe TOP40 almost dropped a 1000 points since the top yesterday...but November living up to it's volatile reputation!

 

Should see that friday short cover and bounce into Monday as she dropped hard before we go down again!

 

Seasonal trend my nr 1 indicator!

 

A

Edited by Argento, 08 November 2013 - 04:20 PM.

[Sam]

Yes to the former :-)
With the US fall yesterday, ( which wiped out at least a week of good gains on the SPX), there must be quite a few previously complacent longs feeling the heat and a further push south will only serve to cause the less resilient to begin folding.
That gap on the SPX will act like a magnet too.....
( thinks he hopefully).
Good luck with those shorts.

Well at this stage it appears my take was completely wrong.
Waiting for the US open before making a decision on cutting my new shorts.

[gringots]

 

The day that broke me. Game over.

 

Have you read Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas?

[Plasma]

Hope you're wrong about this one. I have 4 longs riding into the night.

The day that broke me. Game over.

[gringots]

October Nonfarm payroll employment rises to 204,000 vs.163,000 in September; Unemployment Rate at 7.3%

so...

 

That means its good for the US?

Which means tapering is more likely to happen sooner rather than later.

Which means cheap money is more likely to dry up.

So the market will get pushed down?

Edited by gringots, 08 November 2013 - 03:43 PM.

[OceanWalz]

October Nonfarm payroll employment rises to 204,000 vs.163,000 in September; Unemployment Rate at 7.3%

[joker]

Hope you're wrong about this one. I have 4 longs riding into the night.

 

The day that broke me. Game over.

[BBW]

Thanks S

 

A

Thanks a mil  A. Think I'm going to stagger the stops on my position; some with trailing stops.

[Argento]

(Argento), what do you reckon is a good SL (for my shorts); I'm off to the West Coast for the weekend   My arget's 40100, but think I should cut my losses, should the market turn before then?

Depends on your strategy, if you are willing to hold until next friday to catch the whole ride down keep your shorts, with friday afternoon you sometimes have short cover and with Monday being US holiday we normally go up...so I would lock in those profits and have a nice weekend away!

 

She tends to return to the broken 60min chart 89 MA that is about 250 points up so she should bounce (B leg up) next week before the last leg © down..but she can always continue south too, your choice!

 

A

[Argento]

Well called Argento, wish I'd stayed in longer.

Thanks S

 

A

[BBW]

(Argento), what do you reckon is a good SL (for my shorts); I'm off to the West Coast for the weekend   My arget's 40100, but think I should cut my losses, should the market turn before then?

[Sam]

She is about to make a 30min bearish cross and there is no sign of the US turning up, so I am staying in!
 
The uptrend line has been broken (can't post chart) so my PF target remains 40350ish (futures), but she should zig zag down so in S words...PUMP AND DUMP!
 
Trend is down for now...
 
A

Well called Argento, wish I'd stayed in longer.

[Plasma]

Well, two disastrous trades this morning. First one stopped out. Then the revenge...which did nearly turn green, but I waited toooooo long and when I looked again, also stopped out and the whole week's profit gone. Another long that could have given back half of that, but I missed the top and only took a few points. And now sitting with another one....trust that we have had the low of the day. Did not listen to what I wrote last night.

[Sam]

So, a good nr will be good for my shorts over the weekend; and a bad nr, anybody's guess?

Yes to the former :-)
With the US fall yesterday, ( which wiped out at least a week of good gains on the SPX), there must be quite a few previously complacent longs feeling the heat and a further push south will only serve to cause the less resilient to begin folding.
That gap on the SPX will act like a magnet too.....
( thinks he hopefully).
Good luck with those shorts.

[snoop]

Bulls beware - falling knife.... no need to guess bottom - wait for proper reversal of short term trend

Yes we have been buying the dip but those dips were small - and trend was up.

[BBW]

Hi BBW
Yes, my understanding is that the FED was always going to taper. Before yesterday's GDP announcement the general feeling was that tapering wouldn't commence before March 2014, but now as a consequence of the good data will be fast tracked ( but still only next year). My thinking here is that bad employment data ( subjective) will again serve to throw water on the fire and introduce some doubt into the timing of the tapering decision.

So, a good nr will be good for my shorts over the weekend; and a bad nr, anybody's guess?

[Sam]

Thanks A. Think I'll stay with my original plan and hang tight. Hesitant though to take some extra positions, in order to make my points target a little less.
Not so sure I agree with Sam completely, as it seems to me that the FED has made their mind up to taper, and a little bad data is not going to stop them?

Hi BBW
Yes, my understanding is that the FED was always going to taper. Before yesterday's GDP announcement the general feeling was that tapering wouldn't commence before March 2014, but now as a consequence of the good data will be fast tracked ( but still only next year). My thinking here is that bad employment data ( subjective) will again serve to throw water on the fire and introduce some doubt into the timing of the tapering decision.

[Argento]

Thanks A. Think I'll stay with my original plan and hang tight. Hesitant though to take some extra positions, in order to make my points target a little less.

Not so sure I agree with Sam completely, as it seems to me that the FED has made their mind up to taper, and a little bad data is not going to stop them?

I won't go long now...should be an A,B,C correction down with a B leg commencing probably Monday with the US being closed but going to sit tight, next week is OPEX and markets should stay down into friday!

 

But then good opportunity to go long for the year end rally, taper will not come into play soon me thinks...definitely not before Bernanke steps down and more not within the first term of the new chairlady.

 

Cycles will take over next year with a good bear leg down, and that might be causing some of the red already (top formation)..but US might just correct more than we think if I look at the charts!

 

A

[Mad Max]

Should never trade our market based on the US futures...can change in a jiffy!

 

A

I have to agree with you A. Got burnt more than once based on their stupid green futures- yesterday was classic. I think trading the TOP40 long after 3 pm is a bad idea. I thin SAM mentioned this in an earlier post.