35854 replies to this topic

[Dust]

Rand swimming to the South Pole....

[fabes]

Just also to add, Sunesis, Argento, AJS, Chubby and alot of the other guys have really added to my success.  A BIG BIG BIG THANK YOU!!!!

 

Went from chasing 100 points a day, to trading 1000's of points and that I learned the hard way on my own, but with their advice. Words like "express train", "Santa rally" and "red hanger sale" comes to mind.

[fabes]

Agree BBW. But remember, rather have too much info than too little. That drop on Tuesday was technical. Everything else indicated that the market should rise: futures, data, trend but it didn't.

 

So listen to the technical guys too - lot to learn there.

 

I have sells on FTSE because the trend is down and the US futures are blood red. That's it

 

 

Very bold statement to make, if not technical what will you use to trade?

 

If you want to use technical and catch the daily moves then you are going to get burned, that I will agree with you..especially on the ALSI!

 

If your account can't handle a 200-300 drop you shouldn't trade her, period!

 

Still happy with my longs and buying into this weakness, trend is still up..watch next week!

 

A

 

 

Should have kept my shorts of yesterday! If there's one thing that I've learned here: Learn from and listen to what others have to say, but follow your own convictions and do your own thing/trades. Be especially careful of the technical guys, because they get it wrong most times.

Agree with all of you except for one part of the statement BBW. Depends on who you listen too and even then it does not mean that they will always be right.

 

One must always read a post and see the point of view, sometimes you can clearly see it is more emotion then logic, then you should ignore.

 

I follow my own logic even when the rest of the forum migh differ(last two weeks, some days), but I always keep in mind what they say, cause I might want to make emotional trades where everyone else is thinking logic. Forum serves as a "sounding board" for traders and rarely advice on trades.

 

Just apply risk management strategies when you have trades like that.

[BBW]

Agree BBW. But remember, rather have too much info than too little. That drop on Tuesday was technical. Everything else indicated that the market should rise: futures, data, trend but it didn't.

 

So listen to the technical guys too - lot to learn there.

 

I have sells on FTSE because the trend is down and the US futures are blood red. That's it

 

 

Very bold statement to make, if not technical what will you use to trade?

 

If you want to use technical and catch the daily moves then you are going to get burned, that I will agree with you..especially on the ALSI!

 

If your account can't handle a 200-300 drop you shouldn't trade her, period!

 

Still happy with my longs and buying into this weakness, trend is still up..watch next week!

 

A

I think one gets a "feel" for the market, after being involved for a while, following the news, reading forums, listening to others, experiencing the sentiment, seeing what other markets do, etc. Then after overstuffing yourself with all this info, act on that "feeling"/logical calculation (which is where the feeling comes from, in your brain  )  and buy the dips and/or sell the rallies... ala Sunesis.

I also trade for the longer term mostly, but also enjoy trading the daily fluctuations to add to my account a bit.

[BBW]

Uhm, tech analysis is not an undisputed  vision of the future, nor is it a unquestionable dictation of where the market must go.

 

It is based on patterns and trends and tech analysis uses the past performance (be it 1m, 5m, 1h, or 1d / 1w bars) in determining the possible trend going forward. At ANY given point in time, it can be altered by events or emotional tendencies of people trading and affecting the markets.

 

But more importantly, the market is currently in an abnormal trend (QE) and being artificially fed and directed. My "concern" is, society of today will not "allow" a market crash as in the old days, because of tech, clever-beavers and greed. Look at nature, it brings balance with and after extremes. But not markets (anymore).

 

After QE 3, there will be QE4,5,6 etc until a new underlying support is found for equities. The proverbial Pandora's box has been opened the past decade+ and it is a one-way street, it would seem.

Yes, sorry, I rephrased that last part of my post. Don't get me wrong; I have the utmost respect for technical guys and admire their abilities and will look at technicals myself, but my post is from own experience.

[Argento]

Should have kept my shorts of yesterday! If there's one thing that I've learned here: Learn from and listen to what others have to say, but follow your own convictions and do your own thing/trades. Be especially careful of the technical guys, because it doesn't work, not on the ALSI.

Very bold statement to make, if not technical what will you use to trade?

 

If you want to use technical and catch the daily moves then you are going to get burned, that I will agree with you..especially on the ALSI!

 

If your account can't handle a 200-300 drop you shouldn't trade her, period!

 

Still happy with my longs and buying into this weakness, trend is still up..watch next week!

 

A

[JBlack]

Agree BBW. But remember, rather have too much info than too little. That drop on Tuesday was technical. Everything else indicated that the market should rise: futures, data, trend but it didn't.

 

So listen to the technical guys too - lot to learn there.

 

I have sells on FTSE because the trend is down and the US futures are blood red. That's it

[Lekkerry]

Apologies BBW, it would seem I caught your original post and wording in my reply to you. Now it has been cemented.

 

LOL

 

Should have kept my shorts of yesterday! If there's one thing that I've learned here: Learn from and listen to what others have to say, but follow your own convictions and do your own thing/trades. Be especially careful of the technical guys, because they get it wrong most times.

[BBW]

Should have kept my shorts of yesterday! If there's one thing that I've learned here: Learn from and listen to what others have to say, but follow your own convictions and do your own thing/trades. Be especially careful of the technical guys, because they get it wrong most times.

[Lekkerry]

Uhm, tech analysis is not an undisputed  vision of the future, nor is it a unquestionable dictation of where the market must go.

 

It is based on patterns and trends and tech analysis uses the past performance (be it 1m, 5m, 1h, or 1d / 1w bars) in determining the possible trend going forward. At ANY given point in time, it can be altered by events or emotional tendencies of people trading and affecting the markets.

 

But more importantly, the market is currently in an abnormal trend (QE) and being artificially fed and directed. My "concern" is, society of today will not "allow" a market crash as in the old days, because of tech, clever-beavers and greed. Look at nature, it brings balance with and after extremes. But not markets (anymore).

 

After QE 3, there will be QE4,5,6 etc until a new underlying support is found for equities. The proverbial Pandora's box has been opened the past decade+ and it is a one-way street, it would seem.

 

 

 

 Be especially careful of the technical guys, because it doesn't work, not on the ALSI.

[K~~]

she is stubborn at 42000 though

 

The bulls will have to take a breather at one stage or another.

 

We'll see what happens...

[K~~]

If S&P is down 1.1 % and ZAR/USD is weaker by 1.5%, then our market is still relatively "cheap" in USD terms. We might drop to 42100 but will have to wait and see if any further selling ensues...

K

This 42100  is the critical level. If this breaks, 41800 next stop...

 

K

Edited by K~~, 24 January 2014 - 10:57 AM.

[mountainman]

 Stop loss triggered at 42330 after I missed selling at over 42410 

 

Long again @ 42275

[mountainman]

1 x Long @ 42300 (OST)

100 point trailing stop loss

 Stop loss triggered at 42330 after I missed selling at over 42410 

[mountainman]

1 x Long @ 42300 (OST)

100 point trailing stop loss

Edited by mountainman, 24 January 2014 - 09:43 AM.

[BBW]

Sunesis, are you buying the dip??!

[Lekkerry]

Really Nasdaq, clawing from -1% to + 0.4%? Almost as erratic as ALSI atm.

[BBW]

Guys be very careful relying on our Zim dollar(ZAR). It doesn't always mean we go up when rand does. See beginning of December on attached chart. ZAR jumped 2% and Alsi fell 2%.

Yes, as I said, SA Top40 seems best rand-hedge of all!

[fabes]

Guys be very careful relying on our Zim dollar(ZAR). It doesn't always mean we go up when rand does. See beginning of December on attached chart. ZAR jumped 2% and Alsi fell 2%.

 

Attached Files

•  chart.jpg   42.32KB   17 downloads

[Plasma]

$1900 on SNP.
$645 on FTSE
$800 on ZAR/USD

beautiful day.

Nice!