35854 replies to this topic

[mx125]

I'm glad you asked. It's all about odds, actually.

 

There are two levels I'm looking at. Two days ago professionals were buying when everybody was selling. They have to sell those longs eventually. My chart says they've been buying since 46545 and that's where they ultimately have to close. Anything can happen after that. 

 

Yesterday when the market was going up after the dip, they were opening short positions, when the dumb money was buying. Jakes and other smart traders took a long bet because the odds were in their favour and they made tons of money when everyone thought the sky was falling. Those short positions that the professionals opened have to be covered eventually. Remember, professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Now as a retail trader I have no way of telling which way this thing will move; there's not a single trading indicator in the world that can tell me which way this thing will move. Not a moving average, RSI or MFI. Anyone who says they know is lying to you. Not even the professionals know. 

 

We're currently hovering somewhere in between these two levels I mentioned earlier. Lets say I open a short right now. These crooks might decide to cover their shorts first (move south) in which case I'd make tons of money, or they might decide to close their long positions above, in which case I'd lose tons of money. Now that's gambling. The odds are 50/50. Not good at all.

 

So what should I do? WAIT. Wait until at least I think the professionals have covered their shorts and eliminated some of the risk. It's only then that I can say with a reasonable amount of certainty that the odds are in my favour. Right now, we're are sitting at 50/50. You don't have to be a professional gambler to know that those aren't good odds, brother. 

 

Of course this is based on the premise that we are trading a rigged market and professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Feel free to punch holes; I'm willing to learn from other traders. Unfortunately, I'm clueless when it comes to indicators - I only trade naked charts with horizontal lines.

 

Happy trading.

Thanks for the explanation it makes logical sense. How do you know they bought at the 46545 level?.

[gannet]

The market is resonating nicely with these speed lines

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•  alsi srl.png   205.35KB   7 downloads

[Qbre77]

I'm glad you asked. It's all about odds, actually.

 

There are two levels I'm looking at. Two days ago professionals were buying when everybody was selling. They have to sell those longs eventually. My chart says they've been buying since 46545 and that's where they ultimately have to close. Anything can happen after that. 

 

Yesterday when the market was going up after the dip, they were opening short positions, when the dumb money was buying. Jakes and other smart traders took a long bet because the odds were in their favour and they made tons of money when everyone thought the sky was falling. Those short positions that the professionals opened have to be covered eventually. Remember, professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Now as a retail trader I have no way of telling which way this thing will move; there's not a single trading indicator in the world that can tell me which way this thing will move. Not a moving average, RSI or MFI. Anyone who says they know is lying to you. Not even the professionals know. 

 

We're currently hovering somewhere in between these two levels I mentioned earlier. Lets say I open a short right now. These crooks might decide to cover their shorts first (move south) in which case I'd make tons of money, or they might decide to close their long positions above, in which case I'd lose tons of money. Now that's gambling. The odds are 50/50. Not good at all.

 

So what should I do? WAIT. Wait until at least I think the professionals have covered their shorts and eliminated some of the risk. It's only then that I can say with a reasonable amount of certainty that the odds are in my favour. Right now, we're are sitting at 50/50. You don't have to be a professional gambler to know that those aren't good odds, brother. 

 

Of course this is based on the premise that we are trading a rigged market and professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Feel free to punch holes; I'm willing to learn from other traders. Unfortunately, I'm clueless when it comes to indicators - I only trade naked charts with horizontal lines.

 

Happy trading.

Thank you for ur response, very informative and well explained.

[Roundtree]

Just for interest sake Roundtree, if you are willing to buy at that level, why do you not Short the hell out of her now.

 

 

you beat me to it, was about to ask the same question!

I'm glad you asked. It's all about odds, actually.

 

There are two levels I'm looking at. Two days ago professionals were buying when everybody was selling. They have to sell those longs eventually. My chart says they've been buying since 46545 and that's where they ultimately have to close. Anything can happen after that. 

 

Yesterday when the market was going up after the dip, they were opening short positions, when the dumb money was buying. Jakes and other smart traders took a long bet because the odds were in their favour and they made tons of money when everyone thought the sky was falling. Those short positions that the professionals opened have to be covered eventually. Remember, professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Now as a retail trader I have no way of telling which way this thing will move; there's not a single trading indicator in the world that can tell me which way this thing will move. Not a moving average, RSI or MFI. Anyone who says they know is lying to you. Not even the professionals know. 

 

We're currently hovering somewhere in between these two levels I mentioned earlier. Lets say I open a short right now. These crooks might decide to cover their shorts first (move south) in which case I'd make tons of money, or they might decide to close their long positions above, in which case I'd lose tons of money. Now that's gambling. The odds are 50/50. Not good at all.

 

So what should I do? WAIT. Wait until at least I think the professionals have covered their shorts and eliminated some of the risk. It's only then that I can say with a reasonable amount of certainty that the odds are in my favour. Right now, we're are sitting at 50/50. You don't have to be a professional gambler to know that those aren't good odds, brother. 

 

Of course this is based on the premise that we are trading a rigged market and professionals never close at a loss. 

 

Feel free to punch holes; I'm willing to learn from other traders. Unfortunately, I'm clueless when it comes to indicators - I only trade naked charts with horizontal lines.

 

Happy trading.

[Argento]

If she breaks below 46230-ish uptrend support, she's going back to 46050. (And there's still V's gap close @45650-ish on the to-do list)

 

(That's on the hourly chart - I've given up on trying to post charts, just too many problems)

 

K

This market is getting too dull to sell!

 

IMO that gap had it's change, not going to close now..maybe with Primary IV!

 

A

[K~~]

If she breaks below 46230-ish uptrend support, she's going back to 46050. (And there's still V's gap close @45650-ish on the to-do list)

 

(That's on the hourly chart - I've given up on trying to post charts, just too many problems)

 

K

Edited by K~~, 21 August 2014 - 12:52 PM.

[Qbre77]

Just for interest sake Roundtree, if you are willing to buy at that level, why do you not Short the hell out of her now.

you beat me to it, was about to ask the same question!

[mx125]

I've revisited my calculations after this morning's price action and changed my mind. 

 

Order waiting: 6 long @ 45913. If I do get filled, my profit target is 46285 but it might change depending on price action, that is, provided the professionals close their buy positions as they go south. 

 

Happy trading.

Just for interest sake Roundtree, if you are willing to buy at that level, why do you not Short the hell out of her now.

[Roundtree]

I've revisited my calculations after this morning's price action and changed my mind. 

 

Order waiting: 6 long @ 45913. If I do get filled, my profit target is 46285 but it might change depending on price action, that is, provided the professionals close their buy positions as they go south. 

 

Happy trading.

[sequoia]

If you are looking for some real perspective when short sightednss is killing you, read Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel.

 

Let me know your thoughts if you have read it. 

Edited by sequoia, 21 August 2014 - 12:13 PM.

[Roundtree]

Was a good call i am also not in yet 

They'll go back to 46355 for the last time (hitting it from below). There's still hope. But once again, I don't play the short side.

[Argento]

In this situation lets learn from the master:

 

"In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction." ~ Jesse Livermore

 

Doesn't matter how good a trader you are, you can predict until you are blue but playing the breakout is the best advice, market got me all emotional and fell again into the above trap!

 

So she has been moving in this sideways band since June, where to next? As the SPX is approaching the previous high and clearly back into an uptrend (Nasdaq uptrend confirmed) IMO it is just a matter of time before we pop out up (but I would be guessing so taking what info is available and speculating here).

 

I don't doubt my EW analyis and Intermediate V of Major 5 of Primary III still lies ahead (and as per Caldaro), and based on this sideways action we could see a significant bullrun before she turns again!

 

Since this morning taking a bullish stance on this woman...picking my head up and live to trade another day!

 

Some will be thinking she might go down again for only to miss the ride up, me thinks reward is on the bullish side and risk the bears!

 

Band is on the graph attached...see the daily macd has moved past the 0 line and usually a bullish sign!

 

Still thinks futures close-out in Sept will be a high....with QE getting pumped into the system and rates remaining low (Fed)!

 

A

5H bollingerbands is tightening together and usually signals on a big move coming....!!

 

A

[Dip Trader]

It certainly looks like a good call; and your short entry call was better than mine (although I'm not in it).

 

Happy trading, brother.

Was a good call i am also not in yet 

[Roundtree]

shoo no mate too much schizophrenia around here..i cannot post all my trades how many times can i say why....but i have provided many great pieces of trading tips here..gone over too many heads i guess...the best is trade the fibs now..last post dinkum i am short 46433..should work..adios

It certainly looks like a good call; and your short entry call was better than mine (although I'm not in it).

 

Happy trading, brother.

[Roundtree]

Roundtree

 

All is fair in love and war. I am as neutral as Switzerland in this handbag swinging. But to be fair, please remove the reference to DWT securities from your signature. Otherwise some "charlatan" might accuse you of ambush marketing.

 

Just saying.... 

Thanks, brother. Well spotted. 

 

Although it's not an excuse, I saw all the other traders mentioning IG so I thought I'd also state mine. But thanks for pointing that out.

 

Happy trading, brother.

[Dip Trader]

Just buy low and sell High !!

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[Roundtree]

Roundtree, do you think we will get to that level today? 

This is what my chart tells me based on my trading philosophy, which is Trade double tops/bottoms and Professionals never sell at a loss. 

 

There's a bunch of sell orders sitting at 46545 (19th August) to close long positions that were opened on the way down. I mentioned 46334 (short) because of what was happening there (the mini double top). Those who trade price action saw it unfold. But I don't believe in taking shorts! 

 

Regarding 45783 below, I don't see that happening today. But hey, we're trading a rigged market. The way I see it, these guys will not quit until all their long positions have been closed (and all the shorts have capitulated). The other case is that we have professionals stuck in short trades at 46160 below (from this morning). Now the question is, which one do they want to tackle first? I may be wrong, of course.  

 

Happy trading, brother.

[Argento]

In this situation lets learn from the master:

 

"In a narrow market, when prices are not getting anywhere to speak of but move within a narrow range, there is no sense in trying to anticipate what the next big movement is going to be. The thing to do is to watch the market, read the tape to determine the limits of the get nowhere prices, and make up your mind that you will not take an interest until the prices break through the limit in either direction." ~ Jesse Livermore

 

Doesn't matter how good a trader you are, you can predict until you are blue but playing the breakout is the best advice, market got me all emotional and fell again into the above trap!

 

So she has been moving in this sideways band since June, where to next? As the SPX is approaching the previous high and clearly back into an uptrend (Nasdaq uptrend confirmed) IMO it is just a matter of time before we pop out up (but I would be guessing so taking what info is available and speculating here).

 

I don't doubt my EW analyis and Intermediate V of Major 5 of Primary III still lies ahead (and as per Caldaro), and based on this sideways action we could see a significant bullrun before she turns again!

 

Since this morning taking a bullish stance on this woman...picking my head up and live to trade another day!

 

Some will be thinking she might go down again for only to miss the ride up, me thinks reward is on the bullish side and risk the bears!

 

Band is on the graph attached...see the daily macd has moved past the 0 line and usually a bullish sign!

 

Still thinks futures close-out in Sept will be a high....with QE getting pumped into the system and rates remaining low (Fed)!

 

A

Attached Files

•  TOP40 (Band).jpg   164KB   1 downloads

Edited by Argento, 21 August 2014 - 11:28 AM.

[ZoomZ]

shoo no mate too much schizophrenia around here..i cannot post all my trades how many times can i say why....but i have provided many great pieces of trading tips here..gone over too many heads i guess...the best is trade the fibs now..last post dinkum i am short 46433..should work..adios

[JJBen]

Roundtree

 

All is fair in love and war. I am as neutral as Switzerland in this handbag swinging. But to be fair, please remove the reference to DWT securities from your signature. Otherwise some "charlatan" might accuse you of ambush marketing.

 

Just saying....