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ALSI Trades


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#24281 Argento

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 09:58 AM

Thanks A, i don't just follow what people say on this forum but it is interesting to note what other people see on the charts and to get info that hasn't reached me yet. The other day i was looking at the charts but didn't see a reverse H & S that was forming that AJS posted.

Cool, can get hurt if you do that, just checking! ;)

 

Wave B up normally retrace 50% of Wave A down so we are looking at a target of around 41500ish (futures) later this afternoon...then Wave C down should commence for new lows from tomorrow!

A


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#24282 BlythZ

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 09:50 AM


Any suggestions on whether to go short or long?

You shouldn't go long or short based on what the forum or other guys say, very important to have your strategy and make decisions based on your trading analysis, if you're not there yet then you should papertrade!

A

Thanks A, i don't just follow what people say on this forum but it is interesting to note what other people see on the charts and to get info that hasn't reached me yet. The other day i was looking at the charts but didn't see a reverse H & S that was forming that AJS posted.
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#24283 Argento

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 09:43 AM

Any suggestions on whether to go short or long?

You shouldn't go long or short based on what the forum or other guys say, very important to have your strategy and make decisions based on your trading analysis, if you're not there yet then you should papertrade!

 

A


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#24284 Rietgat

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 09:36 AM

Any suggestions on whether to go short or long?

+1

 

My research/info says short term up ,but generally more downside to come?


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#24285 BlythZ

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 09:32 AM

Any suggestions on whether to go short or long?
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#24286 Rietgat

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 08:56 AM

Good luck all!

 

Resistance still @ 41300? 


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#24287 AJS

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Posted 13 January 2014 - 06:35 AM

Good luck with the trading week everyone, hope it is a good one!


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"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#24288 AJS

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 10:22 PM

A take on the dallies...if one views the Friday candle as a bullish reversal bar, then trading the last two bars will lead to an long entry at 41 120 ish  and a SL at 40 454 ish.

 

This will correspond to A's Friday comments, but A's short army on Tuesday implies we are looking at a bear flag type situation.....the size of Friday's candle however makes me wonder... together with the fact that it seems to be a bounce of the BB MA ....my 1/2 cent

 

Or maybe this is wave B as A eluded to.... Lets see what the week brings! Dailies still looking bearish.

 

*edit* notice the similarity to what transpired during November.  

Attached Files


Edited by AJS, 12 January 2014 - 10:23 PM.

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#24289 AJS

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 10:15 PM

A quick recon i do everyday in morning before opening :

 

Ps note: All IG cash for Alsi and Ftse and also using bid prices

 

 

Alsi IG close at 5pm  Friday  40950

Alsi IG futures at  6.30pm  when FTSE closes 40930

 

 

Ftse IG at 5pm Sa Time when our market closes  6745

Ftse IG at 6.30pm SA time when FTSE closed    6740

 

Rand/pound exchange rate at 5pm  R17.6512

Rand/pound exchange rate at 6.30pm R17.5903

 

Alsi IG as of now 41027

Ftse as of now  6760

Rand /pound as of now  R17.544

 

My calculation of what Alsi should be :

 

6760-6740 / 6740  times 40930   =  122 points  so Alsi should be up to 40930 + 122  =  41052

 

However rand went from 17.5903 to 17.544

 

Therefore Alsi should fall by   17.5903 -17.544  /  17.544  = .0027  times 58% 41052 =   62 points  

 

My calculation of current Alsi =  41052 less 62  = 40990    Current is   41027

 

So 37 points difference is negligible.

 

However i will do all these calculation again at 8am tomorrow morning as futures and pound rate changes

 

 

S is right when he say easier to trade Dow.. There are very few uncertainties to condsider when trading the Dow..

 

However when trading the Alsi there are  100 and one things to consider. Thats why its called the beast and at some times one thinks that it is doing its own thing but that is not correct.

 

Factors to consider first thing in morning before market opens to see which way we will be going :

1. Performance of Ftse futures which is nevetheless influenced by the American markets

2. The pound exchange rate - about 58% of our market is listed in the Ftse

3. As we are resource driven, the dollar exchange rate and price of resources. About 8% of our Top 40 is effected here.

4. The performance of 10cent in Hong Kong as this effects Naspers which makes up about 7% of our TOP 40

5. Performance of Sasol in New York night before as Sasol makes up about 6% of our TOP 40.

6. The Swiss franc/ rand exchange rate as this effects CFR which makes up about 10% of the Index.

7. See what is happening to BHP in Australia as this makes up about 13% of the Index. Ps this 13% is already included in the 58% listed in FTE.

8. Check Australia, Shangai, Hong Kong and Japanese markets to see how they are doing as this may lead to some direction in our market!

9. Watch the economic calender for the day to see if any major news may effect markets.

10. Check any good or bad news on other Bric nations which may effect our market or cause sell off.

10. Last but not least check local news headlines to see if Govt or Malema has not messed up again by making some radical statements in the press which may effect our market only. Also  if any strikes planned. 

 

So if FTSE and Dow are flying does not mean we will also be flying. If rand strengthens against the pound and dollar and resource prices weaken, we could have a red day while rest of world is flying

 

Ps : I may be slightly wrong with my calculations of the TOP40 % constituents above so if anyone can correct it please do!!!

 

WoW, thanks a lot, this is useful!


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"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#24290 BlythZ

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 10:12 PM

A quick recon i do everyday in morning before opening :

Ps note: All IG cash for Alsi and Ftse and also using bid prices


Alsi IG close at 5pm Friday 40950
Alsi IG futures at 6.30pm when FTSE closes 40930


Ftse IG at 5pm Sa Time when our market closes 6745
Ftse IG at 6.30pm SA time when FTSE closed 6740

Rand/pound exchange rate at 5pm R17.6512
Rand/pound exchange rate at 6.30pm R17.5903

Alsi IG as of now 41027
Ftse as of now 6760
Rand /pound as of now R17.544

My calculation of what Alsi should be :

6760-6740 / 6740 times 40930 = 122 points so Alsi should be up to 40930 + 122 = 41052

However rand went from 17.5903 to 17.544

Therefore Alsi should fall by 17.5903 -17.544 / 17.544 = .0027 times 58% 41052 = 62 points

My calculation of current Alsi = 41052 less 62 = 40990 Current is 41027

So 37 points difference is negligible.

However i will do all these calculation again at 8am tomorrow morning as futures and pound rate changes


S is right when he say easier to trade Dow.. There are very few uncertainties to condsider when trading the Dow..

However when trading the Alsi there are 100 and one things to consider. Thats why its called the beast and at some times one thinks that it is doing its own thing but that is not correct.

Factors to consider first thing in morning before market opens to see which way we will be going :
1. Performance of Ftse futures which is nevetheless influenced by the American markets
2. The pound exchange rate - about 58% of our market is listed in the Ftse
3. As we are resource driven, the dollar exchange rate and price of resources. About 8% of our Top 40 is effected here.
4. The performance of 10cent in Hong Kong as this effects Naspers which makes up about 7% of our TOP 40
5. Performance of Sasol in New York night before as Sasol makes up about 6% of our TOP 40.
6. The Swiss franc/ rand exchange rate as this effects CFR which makes up about 10% of the Index.
7. See what is happening to BHP in Australia as this makes up about 13% of the Index. Ps this 13% is already included in the 58% listed in FTE.
8. Check Australia, Shangai, Hong Kong and Japanese markets to see how they are doing as this may lead to some direction in our market!
9. Watch the economic calender for the day to see if any major news may effect markets.
10. Check any good or bad news on other Bric nations which may effect our market or cause sell off.
10. Last but not least check local news headlines to see if Govt or Malema has not messed up again by making some radical statements in the press which may effect our market only. Also if any strikes planned.

So if FTSE and Dow are flying does not mean we will also be flying. If rand strengthens against the pound and dollar and resource prices weaken, we could have a red day while rest of world is flying

Ps : I may be slightly wrong with my calculations of the TOP40 % constituents above so if anyone can correct it please do!!!


That is some valuable info there, thanks HDB
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#24291 HDB

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 09:44 PM

A quick recon i do everyday in morning before opening :

 

Ps note: All IG cash for Alsi and Ftse and also using bid prices

 

 

Alsi IG close at 5pm  Friday  40950

Alsi IG futures at  6.30pm  when FTSE closes 40930

 

 

Ftse IG at 5pm Sa Time when our market closes  6745

Ftse IG at 6.30pm SA time when FTSE closed    6740

 

Rand/pound exchange rate at 5pm  R17.6512

Rand/pound exchange rate at 6.30pm R17.5903

 

Alsi IG as of now 41027

Ftse as of now  6760

Rand /pound as of now  R17.544

 

My calculation of what Alsi should be :

 

6760-6740 / 6740  times 40930   =  122 points  so Alsi should be up to 40930 + 122  =  41052

 

However rand went from 17.5903 to 17.544

 

Therefore Alsi should fall by   17.5903 -17.544  /  17.544  = .0027  times 58% 41052 =   62 points  

 

My calculation of current Alsi =  41052 less 62  = 40990    Current is   41027

 

So 37 points difference is negligible.

 

However i will do all these calculation again at 8am tomorrow morning as futures and pound rate changes

 

 

S is right when he say easier to trade Dow.. There are very few uncertainties to condsider when trading the Dow..

 

However when trading the Alsi there are  100 and one things to consider. Thats why its called the beast and at some times one thinks that it is doing its own thing but that is not correct.

 

Factors to consider first thing in morning before market opens to see which way we will be going :

1. Performance of Ftse futures which is nevetheless influenced by the American markets

2. The pound exchange rate - about 58% of our market is listed in the Ftse

3. As we are resource driven, the dollar exchange rate and price of resources. About 8% of our Top 40 is effected here.

4. The performance of 10cent in Hong Kong as this effects Naspers which makes up about 7% of our TOP 40

5. Performance of Sasol in New York night before as Sasol makes up about 6% of our TOP 40.

6. The Swiss franc/ rand exchange rate as this effects CFR which makes up about 10% of the Index.

7. See what is happening to BHP in Australia as this makes up about 13% of the Index. Ps this 13% is already included in the 58% listed in FTE.

8. Check Australia, Shangai, Hong Kong and Japanese markets to see how they are doing as this may lead to some direction in our market!

9. Watch the economic calender for the day to see if any major news may effect markets.

10. Check any good or bad news on other Bric nations which may effect our market or cause sell off.

10. Last but not least check local news headlines to see if Govt or Malema has not messed up again by making some radical statements in the press which may effect our market only. Also  if any strikes planned. 

 

So if FTSE and Dow are flying does not mean we will also be flying. If rand strengthens against the pound and dollar and resource prices weaken, we could have a red day while rest of world is flying

 

Ps : I may be slightly wrong with my calculations of the TOP40 % constituents above so if anyone can correct it please do!!!


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#24292 Plasma

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Posted 12 January 2014 - 09:22 PM

A take on the dallies...if one views the Friday candle as a bullish reversal bar, then trading the last two bars will lead to an long entry at 41 120 ish  and a SL at 40 454 ish.

 

This will correspond to A's Friday comments, but A's short army on Tuesday implies we are looking at a bear flag type situation.....the size of Friday's candle however makes me wonder... together with the fact that it seems to be a bounce of the BB MA ....my 1/2 cent


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#24293 Plasma

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 11:36 AM

IG after hours tracking.

Interesting post by HDB last night about the pound variable. In terms of my casual observation I thought that the IG algorithms took notice of the S&P movements. Sometime ago, somebody posted a comprehensive view of whom IG tracks after hours. I wonder if they have more than one set of Algorithms .....and if so, whether they select one on the basis of potential profit for the night....
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#24294 AJS

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 11:05 AM

Cant stop a train with a brick wall

Dax back at highs of the day. Dow coming through nicely.

S&P should close above 1840.

 

Closed for $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

Go Bulle :P  :P :P  :P  :P  :P

 

Well done S!  Good stuff!


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"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#24295 BlythZ

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 10:53 AM

Really hope this inverted H&S doesn't take us up all the way :(


That's not pretty good for my short that i entered for the weekend at 41,024. I set a limit at 40,900 i hope we dip when we open on Monday
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#24296 AJS

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Posted 11 January 2014 - 10:20 AM

Really hope this inverted H&S doesn't take us up all the way :(

Attached Files


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"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#24297 Sunesis

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 10:41 PM

I'm buying Dax and Dow

Cant stop a train with a brick wall

Dax back at highs of the day. Dow coming through nicely.

S&P should close above 1840.

 

Closed for $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

 

Go Bulle :P  :P :P  :P  :P  :P


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#24298 AJS

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:58 PM

Ig does not track the Dow...Ig tracks the FTSE adjusted for the British Pound exchange rate!! Most times if exchange rate is same, if FTSE goes up one point, we go up 6!! I have closely monitored this and have come to this conclusion. Therefore today although Dow is down, the FTSE futures are up 17 points on IG and hence we also up!! Therefore i agree with Lekkery!!

 

I have been playing the Alsi last 2 months and one thing i noticed...Forget the rand/dollar exchange rate. Always have the Pound/Rand exchange rate chart open in front of you before you make any trades!!This is the main driver for the Alsi!!A one cent increase in the pound exhange rate sees about 23 points adjusted to the Alsi!!

 

Hope this helps!

 

Ig does not track the Dow...Ig tracks the FTSE adjusted for the British Pound exchange rate!! Most times if exchange rate is same, if FTSE goes up one point, we go up 6!! I have closely monitored this and have come to this conclusion. Therefore today although Dow is down, the FTSE futures are up 17 points on IG and hence we also up!! Therefore i agree with Lekkery!!

 

I have been playing the Alsi last 2 months and one thing i noticed...Forget the rand/dollar exchange rate. Always have the Pound/Rand exchange rate chart open in front of you before you make any trades!!This is the main driver for the Alsi!!A one cent increase in the pound exhange rate sees about 23 points adjusted to the Alsi!!

 

Hope this helps!

 

Wow, okay, never realized that! Thanks a lot ! :)


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"Trade what you see, not what you think"

#24299 HDB

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:25 PM

That IG tracks the DOW plus some crazy IG made spread?

 

Ig does not track the Dow...Ig tracks the FTSE adjusted for the British Pound exchange rate!! Most times if exchange rate is same, if FTSE goes up one point, we go up 6!! I have closely monitored this and have come to this conclusion. Therefore today although Dow is down, the FTSE futures are up 17 points on IG and hence we also up!! Therefore i agree with Lekkery!!

 

I have been playing the Alsi last 2 months and one thing i noticed...Forget the rand/dollar exchange rate. Always have the Pound/Rand exchange rate chart open in front of you before you make any trades!!This is the main driver for the Alsi!!A one cent increase in the pound exhange rate sees about 23 points adjusted to the Alsi!!

 

Hope this helps!


Edited by HDB, 10 January 2014 - 09:28 PM.

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#24300 davidp13

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Posted 10 January 2014 - 09:05 PM


And, your conclusion?

 
That IG tracks the DOW plus some crazy IG made spread?

Remove stops if you have shorts around 41k and put back monday before 0830. All depending on your risk appetite and account. The current range is the range + lower but not a hell of a lot higher.

A called it again today.
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