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ALSI Trades


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#28521 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 01:31 PM

US stock market will open at 14h30 today until 3 November

 

Apple will release earnings around 21h00, highlight of the day. Those who can't trade after hours might wake up with a gap.

 

Apple,Microsoft,Google,Oracle,Intel,Cisco,Amazon make up 50% weight on the Nasdaq.

 

Apple has the biggest weight and its rising before US open. Maybe signs of a bullish day.

 

Apple can pull the whole stock market, Apple is as good as Retail Sales, a good market indicator or consumer spending indicator.


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No profession requires more hard work, intelligence, patience, and mental discipline than..speculation.


#28522 Lekkerry

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 01:21 PM

At this pace of limited market movement (intraday):

  • begin day: enter / exit trade
  • end day: exit / enter trade
  • begin day < in-between > end day: do something else, i.e. surf the web or snooze

 

It could not get more simple / boring / mundane / uneventful / calm <-- take your pick  -_-  


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From your perspective, Lekkerry is faceless and to a degree nameless, so any opinions expressed are just that, opinions from someone on the Internet  :D


#28523 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 01:02 PM

The unstoppable stock market machine: A bubble or a lack of technicals?

 

I was thinking to myself over the weekend about the situation in stocks. A huge part of trading is technical analysis and it’s general ability to become a self fulfilling prophecy. If everyone is trading off the same levels then it adds depth and definition to the market.

 

Take stock markets at all time highs, what if there is no tech?

 

How do all the tech heads trade against a trend or find levels to enter into the market, except in one direction only? With history, technicals provide points to trade both ways in a market but for stocks, they’re in uncharted territory so there’s nothing to the upside to lean against. Given the average trader’s often overwhelming mental reaction to try to pick tops and bottoms how do you trade against thin air.

 

Does the lack of upside technical resistance mean that traders are in fact only trading one way, i.e up, meaning that the the market becomes overly supported due to the lack of technical sellers, and that the only available technical analysis is for support level buying? Is this why we’re seeing the virtual straight line up in stocks rather than the QE trade?

Do these situations force religious technical traders to focus on fundamentals for two way direction?


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#28524 Argento

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 12:41 PM

 

Something interesting to note...and maybe some has already picked it up and others not!
 
US holidays..sometimes the prevailing trend runs until then and turns on that day...we have one coming up on Monday the 11th November, so that friday before should mark an important low on the ALSI. So taking in account the 04th November being a possible high (with another down leg next week), as the market should rally into the 1st as per pattern and November being bullish (against seasonal trend though but looking at the charts..)
 
TA very important in this game and market patterns repeats itself due to human nature and plays a big part.
 
Just keep it in the back of your mind..changes are good it won't play out...or it just might and means lekke kudo's! :rolleyes:
 
A


Reasons to hold that long for the week:

Charts (Bullish triangle/flag breakout)
FOMC Meeting Wednesday (Bullish week)
Seasonal trend is up

Medium term I strongly believe we have started a top pattern so November should be very volatile with big moves up and down (new highs)..US also getting stretched but need to form a top pattern first (2-3 weeks) before a good correction..!

A

Edited by Argento, 28 October 2013 - 12:41 PM.

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#28525 Scotsman

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 12:28 PM

Thanks for the advice Sunesis. I will concentrate my efforts on those points to get to understand the market better. At the moment I am shooting in the dark. Just as I think I understand what I am doing, I enter a losing trade. I entries are a real issue right now!


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#28526 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 11:54 AM

Hey S, thanks for your posts. I have been hovering around and reading what you all have been doing the past couple of weeks. I am still learning and find everything posted very interesting.

I see that you punt buying the dips often, and it seems to be working for you pretty well. I also read somewhere that you use a stop of 500 points with your trades. My question is really how do you know how far a "dip" will go, before you buy, and what is your trigger to buy at a certain point of a dip?

Thanks for the posts, very informative and interesting how you all see the market.

The best place to buy a dip is by the demand area, support zones example S1 S2 S3.

But if you miss the support zones, you have to start playing russian rollette with the market and buy on any tiny dip you can get.

1st is to look at the sentiment for the day. If BAT,SAB,NASPERS,RICHEMONT,BHP,ANGLO, MTN,STANDARD BANK,FIRSTRAND are up in the morning. It usually means the day will be bullish.

 

Also have a look at the market sentiment in Asia around 3am. If Tencent and some Chinese Banks are bid, that's usually a good sign to buy dips on open.

Our ALSI moves with Asian sentiment. If Asia is bad, trust me stocks like richemnont,sab,naspers,bhp won't go anywhere.

 

Overall is to teach yourself every tradable intrument, like gold,oil,forex and bonds.

 

Right now i have a long position on oil,gold,AUD/USD, NZD/JPY, GBP/JPY,ALSI,NASDAQ,Euro50

 

Once you get a feel of all these markets, you will find it easy to trade because they are all correlated. That's how Paul Tudor Jones traded


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#28527 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 11:31 AM

Reminder to indice traders. Since 1995, S&P 500 rose 16 times from Oct 28 to Nov 6 vs just 2 dips


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#28528 Scotsman

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 11:29 AM

Bought the dip 40572

Hey S, thanks for your posts. I have been hovering around and reading what you all have been doing the past couple of weeks. I am still learning and find everything posted very interesting.

I see that you punt buying the dips often, and it seems to be working for you pretty well. I also read somewhere that you use a stop of 500 points with your trades. My question is really how do you know how far a "dip" will go, before you buy, and what is your trigger to buy at a certain point of a dip?

Thanks for the posts, very informative and interesting how you all see the market.


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#28529 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 10:52 AM

Bought the dip 40572


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#28530 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 10:31 AM

And that weather update kindly brought to you by JBlack :)

The is a very good chance it will happen again. All the markets are overbought. It will happen just after Dow hits all time highs.

All the indices are waiting for Dow. Once Dow crosses the 15675 line and maybe hit 15800, the market can pullback.

Bull are somewhat tired of making money now.

 

We need a 3-5% pullback.

 

Making money is easy if you buy the dip in a bull trend.

Those who have been waiting for a crash since 2009 are licking thier wounds.

Some of them are broke or bankrupt


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#28531 JBlack

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 10:26 AM

And that weather update kindly brought to you by JBlack :)

And in other news - Tokyo Sexwale has apparently been mistaken for a member of Al Qeada at JFK Airport..... 


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#28532 JBlack

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 10:21 AM

A big storm has just hit London.

 

3 days after the last big storm in England in 1987, the market collapsed. Dow lost 22% in one day. Just saying....


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#28533 bear catcher

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 10:18 AM

Think this is a good exit for my longs now wait for the dip to buy again. Easy money ,just hope it lasts. If we go much higher today will maybe sell the rally???
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#28534 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 09:40 AM

I am expecting a green day this Monday morning I think -   but a pull back later in week of SP500 to 1740 'ish taking our T40spot with - but this should present another Dip Buy

- opinions please.

I'm done for the day. All my longs from last week took profits.

 

 

Viva La Bull came early morning


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#28535 OceanWalz

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 07:59 AM

I am expecting a green day this Monday morning I think -   but a pull back later in week of SP500 to 1740 'ish taking our T40spot with - but this should present another Dip Buy

- opinions please.


Edited by OceanWalz, 28 October 2013 - 08:01 AM.

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#28536 Sunesis

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Posted 28 October 2013 - 01:08 AM

US Stock Market "The Wall Of Worry "

 

Traders and investors all around the world is having trouble climbing over the wall of worry/fear with the US stock market, and rightly so. There is a lot of things taking place and unfolding that carry a high level of uncertainty. Let’s face it, who wants to invest money into the market when it’s hard to come by (high unemployment, banks are still extremely tight with their money, companies are nowhere near wanting to hiring new staff).

The hard pill to swallow is the fact that the stock market loves to rise when uncertainty is high. It’s almost doing it just to drive investor’s nuts who sold out near market bottom or recent correction. You must overcome the urge to short the market when the economy looks so bearish in the years ahead, and continue to trade with the trend.

 

Short Term Investing – Weekly Volatility Index Chart

Below you can see the fear index. The chart is self-explanatory showing where it should move next. But if you are not familiar with the VIX then here is definition by investopedia:

 

“The first VIX, introduced by the CBOE in 1993, was a weighted measure of the implied volatility of eight S&P 100 at-the-money put and call options. Ten years later, it expanded to use options based on a broader index, the S&P 500, which allows for a more accurate view of investors’ expectations on future market volatility. VIX values greater than 30 are generally associated with a large amount of volatility as a result of investor fear or uncertainty, while values below 20 generally correspond to less stressful, even complacent, times in the markets.”

VixBottom1.png

 

Weekly Investing Chart of the SP500 Index

After reviewing the VIX chart above which points to stocks nearing a level of selling pressure, then review the chart below we come to a conclusion that a minor pullback of 2-5% is likely to take place in the next week ortwo.

The divergence in the Relative Strength Index is a bearish sign for the broad market. While I feel a pullback is do and needed for the market to regroup, it is important to review the seasonality chart and know that we are entering one the strongest times of the year for stocks.

SP500Divergence.png

 

SP500 Seasonality Chart

Again, using the data from the previous two charts along with this graph clearly shows that a pullback in the stocks is likely going to be bought back up by the brave investors willing to override their fear and go with the trend. 

 SP-Seasonality.gif

 

The Wall Of Worry Conclusion:

In short, expect the stock market to correct in the next week or two. But once we get a correction of two percent or more, be prepared for buyers to step back in and buy things up into year end.

 

This WALL OF WORRY is about to GET HIGHER!


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#28537 davidp13

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Posted 27 October 2013 - 05:06 PM

Very interesting discussions. Keep up the good work.
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#28538 Plasma

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:36 AM


Correct on the not charging as long your make at least 3 trades a month. The after hours liquidity i would say is about 80%-90% . If you keep trying a minute or 2 later your are bound to sell your contract. However the minute you get on IG you learn that trading is no more a sit back and watch kind of thing. It becomes a 24 hour thing (on weekdays only) ! You will find yourself up at midnight, sometimes at 3 am and people will wonder what the hell you are doing at that hour of the night.

Hehe. I rather be trading at night than what I do now. These limited hours are affecting my day job.

One other thing. What brokerage fee do they charge? SBOT charges R14 per a contract.

Brokerage embedded in spread.

Lol..had the same day job issues....now on a much better footing....
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#28539 joker

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Posted 26 October 2013 - 07:10 AM

Correct on the not charging as long your make at least 3 trades a month. The after hours liquidity i would say is about 80%-90% . If you keep trying a minute or 2 later your are bound to sell your contract. However the minute you get on IG you learn that trading is no more a sit back and watch kind of thing. It becomes a 24 hour thing (on weekdays only) !  You will find yourself up at midnight, sometimes at  3 am and people will wonder what the hell you are doing at that hour of the night.

Hehe. I rather be trading at night than what I do now. These limited hours are affecting my day job.

 

One other thing. What brokerage fee do they charge? SBOT charges R14 per a contract.


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#28540 Mad Max

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Posted 25 October 2013 - 08:51 PM

Thanks Rockstar. I'll open up a demo account. So if I understand correctly, IG opens two accounts, domestic and international, and they don't charge any maintenance fee for them, as long as you're not inactive? 

 

And how liquid are the ALSI contracts after hours?

Correct on the not charging as long your make at least 3 trades a month. The after hours liquidity i would say is about 80%-90% . If you keep trying a minute or 2 later your are bound to sell your contract. However the minute you get on IG you learn that trading is no more a sit back and watch kind of thing. It becomes a 24 hour thing (on weekdays only) !  You will find yourself up at midnight, sometimes at  3 am and people will wonder what the hell you are doing at that hour of the night.


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