35854 replies to this topic

[Argento]

Ok, forget futures, the actual TOP40 market is still about 400 points away from its top, the futures on IG and forexpros differ, so use that before you call a new high.

 

QE is just a bubble waiting to burst, fundamentals is way behind and soon (few months) it will reflect in the price!

 

But for now enjoy the QE hype while it lasts!

 

If you look at all the indicators it will tell you there is a correction upon us, to feel not...I won't bet on that!

 

A

 

Are you suggesting a market maker (IG markets) are more correct than the actual instrument listed on the safex?

 

And on QE, the bond buying program in the US is basically printing money and giving it to there banks, when there came news that qe might end, banks held the money back, because of fear there might be no more. and we dropped.

They will keep buying markets higher as long as the cheap money comes in.

 

But thats just my view, lets see who the market sides with. 

[Beorn]

Yip, QE has driven this market to where it is!

 

But...cycles is still alive and the Fed can only do that much, next year this bullmarket will end, QE or not!

 

Seasonal factor also calls for a weak period ahead in stocks!

 

A

 

I agree 100% with you view for a year from now, as I think we will by then see the end of QE. But not in the next couple of months.

Barring a black swan event.

[bear catcher]

Argento was right about the rise today now I just hold thumbs he is right a
bout a slide this afternoon, greed got hold of me sitting with a short at 35100

[Beorn]

So, you both (Jake & Argento) are actually saying the same thing: the market's being driven, or not, by QE mostly, whether it will stay or go away? Are there other BIGGER factors to consider?

 

Not in my view (no other big factors).

QE has been driving markets for the last several years.

Edited by Jakes, 15 May 2013 - 12:48 PM.

[Argento]

Yip, QE has driven this market to where it is!

 

But...cycles is still alive and the Fed can only do that much, next year this bullmarket will end, QE or not!

 

Seasonal factor also calls for a weak period ahead in stocks!

 

A

So, you both (Jake & Argento) are actually saying the same thing: the market's being driven, or not, by QE mostly, whether it will stay or go away? Are there other BIGGER factors to consider?

[Beorn]

But QE was in the system April as well when we sold off 3000 points?

 

Corrections happen even with QE around, but next year will be a different story when the Kress cycle takes hold!

 

That trend line is still about 400 points up as forexpros moved, use IG futures that is correct!

 

A

 

Are you suggesting a market maker (IG markets) are more correct than the actual instrument listed on the safex?

 

And on QE, the bond buying program in the US is basically printing money and giving it to there banks, when there came news that qe might end, banks held the money back, because of fear there might be no more. and we dropped.

They will keep buying markets higher as long as the cheap money comes in.

 

But thats just my view, lets see who the market sides with. 

[Argento]

That's me, taking profit here from my longs!

 

She may still run up a bit but will get in again after the drop this afternoon!

 

A

I'm stayIng In my longs till later this afternoon, wIll post before that sellorder comes through!

A

[BBW]

So, you both (Jake & Argento) are actually saying the same thing: the market's being driven, or not, by QE mostly, whether it will stay or go away? Are there other BIGGER factors to consider?

Edited by BBW, 15 May 2013 - 12:38 PM.

[Argento]

But QE was in the system April as well when we sold off 3000 points?

 

Corrections happen even with QE around, but next year will be a different story when the Kress cycle takes hold!

 

That trend line is still about 400 points up as forexpros moved, use IG futures that is correct!

 

A

No end to QE.

and if I'm not mistaken, it looks like that trend line on the June Alsi is only +-100 points away.

We might sail past it today.

 

The market has been pumping higher higher with no regard to TA or fundamentals, why will that change?

The only time we got a small pullback, was when there was talks of QE ending.

[Beorn]

Based on?

 

A

 

No end to QE.

and if I'm not mistaken, it looks like that trend line on the June Alsi is only +-100 points away.

We might sail past it today.

 

The market has been pumping higher higher with no regard to TA or fundamentals, why will that change?

The only time we got a small pullback, was when there was talks of QE ending.

[Lekkerry]

Every laurel has his hardy, every night has its day, every Tom has his Jerry and... every Argento post has a Jakes post!

Love it guys, I love it!

x many

[Argento]

Based on?

 

A

I think we will move past that trend line.

 

Without breaking a sweat.

[Beorn]

If you look very closely the second top was a few points under the first one, thus creating a downtrend line, now I believe she will go and touch that line (still 400ish points up) (IG futures spot) before coming down, and ye, we are in for a big slide as the QE euphoria party is almost done!

 

There is negative divergences already showing and just look at what the Aussie dollar did, scary!

 

A

 

I think we will move past that trend line.

 

Without breaking a sweat.

[Plasma]

A symmetrical triangle visible on 5 min chart IGM J200

[Argento]

If you look very closely the second top was a few points under the first one, thus creating a downtrend line, now I believe she will go and touch that line (still 400ish points up) (IG futures spot) before coming down, and ye, we are in for a big slide as the QE euphoria party is almost done!

 

There is negative divergences already showing and just look at what the Aussie dollar did, scary!

 

A

Well said Argento.

 

I like your style of trading waves. 

 

Do you think that the current daily chart is an example of a triple top in progress? If so, we are in for a huge slide, as you predict. I'm hanging onto a couple of shorts in anticipation.

[Beorn]

Oh sorry. I also listen to Chubby, JaDeb and Zoner! Sorry I left you out of my Oscar speech chaps!

I will trade what I see today which is bad EU data, red US futures, drop in the gold price and the need for this market to correct and/or someone to take profit. Plus the labour issues with our platinum miners will filter through I think.

Got sells at 35250 and 35300 Top40. Seeing a nice drop now...

 

Rand hedge stocks holding the Alsi up, and will keep holding it up until the ZAR starts to strengenth, which might not be soon, because of the strikes you talk of.

BTI is heaviest weighted in Alsi and a big ZAR hedge.

Just saying.

[K~~]

Well said Argento.

 

I like your style of trading waves. 

 

Do you think that the current daily chart is an example of a triple top in progress? If so, we are in for a huge slide, as you predict. I'm hanging onto a couple of shorts in anticipation.

 

 

We have all talents and experience to bring to this forum to learn and we all make mistakes, one can only try to use what is in front of you (charts, cycles, seasonal trend etc) to plan your trades accordingly and make money in this irrational market!

 

As Lekkerry stated, I focus on bigger waves, did intraday scalping once and learned my lesson, go and read Reminisence of a Stockoperater and listen to what the mos succesfull trader that lived said..

 

The holy grail of trading is YOU, your strategy and what works for you!

 

Back to the charts, dull day as she has started her island top but should see a quick drop later (after 15:00?) this afternoon a bit higher up from here, but long opportunity again for that cycle top come friday!

 

When she turns next week it will be an excellent opportunity to short and sit tight (given she goes down in waves), cause there will be a pot of gold waiting for you come August!

A

[JBlack]

I also listen when Lekkerkry, Plasma, Jakes, Ninja, Grumpy Old Man, karlwynv, bearcatcher, etc speaks..... It's about as much info as possible! Make an informed decision.

I shorted yesterday and was doing well until that pop everybody discussed. It happen as A predicted though and yes, I did listen to him but at that point I was still trading what I saw, which was us dropping along with US futures and Europe.

I did change my position around when we started climbing which means that Jakes, Argento was right about it turning later. 

Don't mirro someone else unless it is an expensive Forex robot!

Oh sorry. I also listen to Chubby, JaDeb and Zoner! Sorry I left you out of my Oscar speech chaps!

I will trade what I see today which is bad EU data, red US futures, drop in the gold price and the need for this market to correct and/or someone to take profit. Plus the labour issues with our platinum miners will filter through I think.

Got sells at 35250 and 35300 Top40. Seeing a nice drop now...

[Argento]

We have all talents and experience to bring to this forum to learn and we all make mistakes, one can only try to use what is in front of you (charts, cycles, seasonal trend etc) to plan your trades accordingly and make money in this irrational market!

 

As Lekkerry stated, I focus on bigger waves, did intraday scalping once and learned my lesson, go and read Reminisence of a Stockoperater and listen to what the mos succesfull trader that lived said..

 

The holy grail of trading is YOU, your strategy and what works for you!

 

Back to the charts, dull day as she has started her island top but should see a quick drop later (after 15:00?) this afternoon a bit higher up from here, but long opportunity again for that cycle top come friday!

 

When she turns next week it will be an excellent opportunity to short and sit tight (given she goes down in waves), cause there will be a pot of gold waiting for you come August!

A

 

 

I also listen when Lekkerkry, Plasma, Jakes, Ninja, Grumpy Old Man, karlwynv, bearcatcher, etc speaks..... It's about as much info as possible! Make an informed decision.

I shorted yesterday and was doing well until that pop everybody discussed. It happen as A predicted though and yes, I did listen to him but at that point I was still trading what I saw, which was us dropping along with US futures and Europe.

I did change my position around when we started climbing which means that Jakes, Argento was right about it turning later. 

Don't mirro someone else unless it is an expensive Forex robot!

[grumpy old man]

Watching the markets today is like watching paint dry....not very exciting and Telkom are messing with my adsl speeds which makes me even grumpier than usual........