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FBR/Famous Brands Limited


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#1 Saints

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Posted 12 October 2017 - 12:05 PM

GBK is going to be costly and the market is not forgiving so it will be a while before the share price recovers. Remember it was already trading on a high PE so many disappointed shareholders out there when the impact of the trading update knocked the share price. FBR always paid good dividends too and now a 0% dividend yield for a well established company does not go down well.
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#2 SouthAfricanMi.com

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Posted 10 October 2017 - 10:39 AM

Famous Brands (FBR) taking a pounding after their latest trading update. Should have learnt from Spur. It is not easy doing business in the UK.

 

www.southafricanmi.com/blog-10oct2017.html

 

Above compares the share price performance of Taste, FBR and SUR over the last 4 years (or any date users specify).

Attached Files


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#3 DividendTycoon

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Posted 27 October 2016 - 08:29 AM

Thanks for the analysis. I prefer Spur in this sector - good brands and Rocomama's acquired at fraction of the cost of GBK. Not directly comparable but think FB may have paid too much.


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#4 SouthAfricanMi.com

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Posted 26 October 2016 - 07:31 PM

So FBR stopped paying dividends until at least 2018 in order to preserve cash after their Gourmet Burger Kitchen acquisition in the UK.

We feel they a little overpriced currently. Time to start growing organically instead of via acquisition.

Www.southafricanmi.com/famous-brands-fbr.html
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#5 Saints

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Posted 08 May 2015 - 09:24 AM

Year End results due in the next two weeks.

 

I have not seen a trading update which makes me think that the fast food franchise market may be flattening out as the number of franchises has increased to the point where consumers whose spending in this sector has been maximised has to be spread amongst more and more outlets.

 

The proof of the pudding for Famous brands will be its success outside of SA, Nigeria in particular. I still expect a solid set of results from FBR


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#6 Saints

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Posted 08 December 2014 - 03:59 PM

I am with you on that one Gamma.

 

Seems like Famous Brands have responded vary favourably to the threat of the latest competition.


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#7 gamma

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Posted 08 December 2014 - 03:17 PM

Very strong move today.

The news doesn't really justify it but hey I'll take it  :)


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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#8 Saints

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Posted 05 November 2014 - 07:50 AM

Thanks guys.

 

Does anyone know what the negotiations were about or who they were talking to? Were there any rumours?


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#9 gamma

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Posted 05 November 2014 - 01:28 AM

Yep saw this. Whatever they were looking at obviously didn't pan out. Given there low debt it's only a matter of time before they do something.


WITHDRAWAL OF CAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENT

Famous Brands shareholders are referred to the cautionary announcements
dated 19 August 2014 and 30 September 2014 and advised that the discussions
referred to in these announcements have been terminated.

Accordingly, shareholders no longer need to exercise caution when dealing
in their Famous Brands securities.

Midrand
31 October 2014


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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#10 chrisp

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Posted 04 November 2014 - 12:10 PM

WITHDRAWAL OF CAUTIONARY ANNOUNCEMENT

Famous Brands shareholders are referred to the cautionary announcements
dated 19 August 2014 and 30 September 2014 and advised that the discussions
referred to in these announcements have been terminated.

Accordingly, shareholders no longer need to exercise caution when dealing
in their Famous Brands securities.

Midrand
31 October 2014


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#11 Saints

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Posted 30 October 2014 - 08:58 AM

Thanks Gamma, what you have said is very true. Indicators and ratio are great to analyse the market but they should only be used as a guide, the market will price the share as they see fit. The trick is to be in before the market noise starts. A very high profile addition to the board which I am sure will pay dividends in years to come,

 

I do believe this one will keep on going and as you say when the cautionary is lifted and an announcement made further future earnings will be priced into the share.


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#12 gamma

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Posted 29 October 2014 - 12:12 AM

Funny that no one has commented on today's important announcement. In fact this for me was far more interesting than the results. For a long time I've been waxing about the similarities between SAB and FBR. The management pedigree and culture that was an important factor in driving SAB has been transposed to FBR over the years. Its obvious in the way they operate, not to mention their business model. Now Adami's appointment is the icing on the cake. Forget the PE and whether 24 is high or not. Yes it sure is, but what will the fwd PE be the day after FBR makes the big acquisition we expect it to make -  then slap on your usual 15-20% historic growth plus potential synergies from said deal.

 

Remember, Aspen looked just as expensive at R50.

 

ps, my 2c...PEs and PEGs are good ratios unless you are dealing with a very acquisitive company.


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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#13 flexbender

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 11:19 AM

Why are you kicking FBR here?

Technically speaking it was much more expensive a year ago.  I agree it is still expensive - but so is the rest of the market.

Last I checked average PE was close to 20...

 

Sure, I won't be buying more at this level, but while they are still churning out consistently good results, it remains a clear hold in my view.

 

Anyway, I plan to take a little profit at >110 only to bring it back down to less than 5% of my portfolio. 

And hopefully I will use that profit to buy some of the "value" that you speak of.  ;)

 

That's exactly what I'm doing at the moment mate.

However I always take a "Would I be buying at these levels?" approach to what I hold in my portfolio. FBR doesn't qualify anymore. (hence the "kicking" you refer too")

A strategy that works for me.

Partial profit taking and rebalancing portfolios works for others. Each to his own...

 

 

Is there a "value stocks" thread out there? Maybe the LT Portfolio one will suffice.


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#14 Hooligan

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 10:07 AM

Obviously the market prices in future earnings. It does that for every share.

What I'm saying is that at these levels you are paying way to much for those forecasted earnings.

In other words FBR's high PE cannot be justified by it's expected future earnings. My opinion.

 

Good business.

Way to expensive.

 

 

Apple - 16

Google - 20

Those are high PE's that can be justified...

 

Sasol for example is on a PE of 9... Comair on 7...

Now here's value I believe.

 

SAB is on 28... Anchor on 36... NPN is on 82 atm!

High expectations here. Very.

 

 

Yes PE is on EXPECTED future earnings. BUT, at what point does it become ridiculous?

I prefer looking at PEG.

Never only buy quality. Buy value.

Why are you kicking FBR here?

Technically speaking it was much more expensive a year ago.  I agree it is still expensive - but so is the rest of the market.

Last I checked average PE was close to 20...

 

Sure, I won't be buying more at this level, but while they are still churning out consistently good results, it remains a clear hold in my view.

 

Anyway, I plan to take a little profit at >110 only to bring it back down to less than 5% of my portfolio. 

And hopefully I will use that profit to buy some of the "value" that you speak of.  ;)


Edited by Hooligan, 28 October 2014 - 10:08 AM.

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#15 flexbender

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Posted 28 October 2014 - 09:21 AM

Obviously the market prices in future earnings. It does that for every share.

What I'm saying is that at these levels you are paying way to much for those forecasted earnings.

In other words FBR's high PE cannot be justified by it's expected future earnings. My opinion.

 

Good business.

Way to expensive.

 

 

Apple - 16

Google - 20

Those are high PE's that can be justified...

 

Sasol for example is on a PE of 9... Comair on 7...

Now here's value I believe.

 

SAB is on 28... Anchor on 36... NPN is on 82 atm!

High expectations here. Very.

 

 

Yes PE is on EXPECTED future earnings. BUT, at what point does it become ridiculous?

I prefer looking at PEG.

Never only buy quality. Buy value.

 

 


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#16 Saints

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 04:57 PM

The market is pricing in future earnings hence the high PE. It may take a market correction that hammers mid and small caps to bring this one down below R80


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#17 flexbender

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 03:59 PM

As much as I love FBR this is nuts. It's way to expensive.

PE of above 25 now!

 

Who the hell pays that much for a consumer goods business??

Crazy.

 

Sold at R100.

Will wait till it's under R80 to buy gain. (Or when growth starts justifying PE...)


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#18 Saints

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 10:51 AM

Yep this one never disappoints.

 

No clues as to why the share is still under cautionary though. 


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#19 gamma

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Posted 27 October 2014 - 08:44 AM

Very strong results.
Revenue up nicely. Earnings strong. Margin getting even better. Debt very low.
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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#20 Saints

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Posted 03 October 2014 - 08:32 AM

Cautionary renewed which makes us all more curious what they are planning


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