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FBR/Famous Brands Limited


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#61 gamma

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Posted 23 October 2013 - 06:40 PM

Results should be out tomorrow or Friday


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#62 gamma

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Posted 03 October 2013 - 12:09 PM

a lot of small volume deals going through. To be honest the rest of the market (larger investors) have been pricing this update in for some time. PE is quite high for this share so not too much room to move until the latest results will adjust the PE accordingly 

 

Saints, one other thing to consider here is that come the first set of results in 2014 the PE will come down substantially given the addition of the earnings from the Nigerian business

So current fwd PE is not too bad.

 

Here's my calc.

PE current (ttm) is ~30

 

FBR have called a ~20% increase in earnings

This takes PE fwd to ~25

 

Say the nigerian business adds another 10% to earnings

takes PE to around ~22/23

 

 

This would be a short term look only at the PE at 6 months from now, at which time FBR should report say another 10-20% earnings on their current base which would conceivably bring it to below 20 in 6 months without too much of a stretch.

 

 

Note, this is a quick back of the napkin analysis so feel free to rip it up!

Cheers

gamma


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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#63 gamma

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 03:47 PM

Gamma, also remember that at R100 this share is expensive for small investors to get in . R100k is what you need to buy 1,000 shares. A while back it was suggested that they do a share split to make the share more trade-able.

 

yep, a 5 to 1 split would be great :)


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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#64 Saints

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 03:32 PM

Gamma, also remember that at R100 this share is expensive for small investors to get in . R100k is what you need to buy 1,000 shares. A while back it was suggested that they do a share split to make the share more trade-able.


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#65 gamma

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 03:13 PM

a lot of small volume deals going through. To be honest the rest of the market (larger investors) have been pricing this update in for some time. PE is quite high for this share so not too much room to move until the latest results will adjust the PE accordingly 

 

Agree with you. Wasn't expecting a big move either way but am surprised at how little volume traded. Even after the Nigerian deal, it's been a bit of a slug..


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#66 Saints

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 03:05 PM

a lot of small volume deals going through. To be honest the rest of the market (larger investors) have been pricing this update in for some time. PE is quite high for this share so not too much room to move until the latest results will adjust the PE accordingly 


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#67 gamma

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 02:56 PM

very strange

trading update out yet only 15 000 shares traded so far.

what gives?


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#68 gamma

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Posted 01 October 2013 - 08:48 AM

Solid trading update from FBR.

 

 

 

FBR 201310010009A
Trading Update

FAMOUS BRANDS LIMITED
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 1969/004875/06)
Share code: FBR
ISIN code: ZAE000053328
(“Famous Brands” or “the Group”)


TRADING UPDATE IN RESPECT OF THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 31 AUGUST 2013

Famous Brands is in the process of finalising its results for the
six months ended 31 August 2013.

Accordingly, shareholders are advised that the Group expects to
report headline earnings per share (“HEPS”) and earnings per share
(“EPS") (calculated on an IFRS basis) of between 178 cents per share
and 183 cents per share. This is an improvement on the prior year
comparable HEPS and EPS of between 19% and 22%.

The Group expects to report diluted HEPS and diluted EPS of between
176 cents per share and 181 cents per share, an improvement of
between 20% and 23%.

 


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#69 gamma

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 06:00 PM

Great news for FBR investors.

+146 new restaurants added. mroe restaurants to pump products into. expanded footprint in what will become the biggest market in Africa.

 

R100 now looks cheap!

 

the most exciting aspect to this deal is the logistics network they now have access to. If they can leverage this to push some of their other brands into Nigeria then the potential growth is massive.

 

Interview with Hedderwick

http://bcove.me/cucd6dze


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#70 gamma

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Posted 16 September 2013 - 10:13 AM

Great news for FBR investors.

+146 new restaurants added. mroe restaurants to pump products into. expanded footprint in what will become the biggest market in Africa.

 

R100 now looks cheap!


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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#71 gamma

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Posted 31 July 2013 - 04:23 PM

Some news from Taste today

 

http://www.moneyweb....-fish-and-chips


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#72 gamma

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 07:10 AM

I actually agree with you that the short term price is a bit rich and we could see a pullback should the market come off so am not questioning your trade. My view is much longer term +5 years and over that period I'm extremely bullish.  

 

On another note..Spur's update on Friday of 16+% growth in sales is in line with FBRs recent update and so its clear the market grew at a health clip despite a stagnant SA economy. What's interesting is that Spurs pizza franchise grew a staggering 31% and international operations grew by 25%. We need to wait for the details but my guess is that pizza growth ex-SA is a major growth driver, reinforcing the FBR strategy. Frankly, even without India, I think the coming industrialization and westernization of Africa is being grossly underestimated. If the India business takes off (and I'm not saying this is sure thing) then that is only upside, if it fails then what has FBR lost? Nothing much really.

 

I neglected to mention, one other piece of news last week that is relevant to FBR and that is Starbucks fantastic results which again would suggest that the Mugg and Bean on the move concept has a lot of legs. The coffee on the go culture is only starting in SA.


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#73 gamma

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Posted 29 July 2013 - 06:59 AM

Sell order is in for R99.50. S/L R101

 

I actually agree with you that the short term price is a bit rich and we could see a pullback should the market come off so am not questioning your trade. My view is much longer term +5 years and over that period I'm extremely bullish.  

 

On another note..Spur's update on Friday of 16+% growth in sales is in line with FBRs recent update and so its clear the market grew at a health clip despite a stagnant SA economy. What's interesting is that Spurs pizza franchise grew a staggering 31% and international operations grew by 25%. We need to wait for the details but my guess is that pizza growth ex-SA is a major growth driver, reinforcing the FBR strategy. Frankly, even without India, I think the coming industrialization and westernization of Africa is being grossly underestimated. If the India business takes off (and I'm not saying this is sure thing) then that is only upside, if it fails then what has FBR lost? Nothing much really.


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Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#74 Shortboy

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Posted 28 July 2013 - 07:24 PM

That was my view too, an expensive one in hindsight heh heh! But, this is now, if I was long of FBR I would be lightening or selling my position. If I was not holding a position I would be thinking of going short. If Hedderwick, the business manager, is uneasy about holding a long position in his own company at R100, I certainly am not going to second guess him. Just a view, one of millions out there. Well done for sitting tight though! 

Sell order is in for R99.50. S/L R101


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#75 Shortboy

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Posted 27 July 2013 - 12:33 PM

ahh..risk free investments...heard that one before!  :lol:

 

hope you don't completely agree with HDB though. last few months he sold all his long positions in anticipation of a major market crash. since then the market is up ~10%  :blink:

That was my view too, an expensive one in hindsight heh heh! But, this is now, if I was long of FBR I would be lightening or selling my position. If I was not holding a position I would be thinking of going short. If Hedderwick, the business manager, is uneasy about holding a long position in his own company at R100, I certainly am not going to second guess him. Just a view, one of millions out there. Well done for sitting tight though! 


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#76 gamma

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 11:47 PM

My mistake (2 week old data), the combined DY & EY of Famous Brands is actually 2% (about 25%) BELOW the guaranteed return of 8.09% you would get on an RSA 186 bond with "no risk".....

 

 

ahh..risk free investments...heard that one before!  :lol:

 

hope you don't completely agree with HDB though. last few months he sold all his long positions in anticipation of a major market crash. since then the market is up ~10%  :blink:


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#77 Shortboy

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 07:53 PM

I go with HDB on this. Famous Brands is a reallllly expensive share. Look beyond its sky high PE. Look at Its price to cash generated from operations ratio. Its in the region of 68 X, add to this an 8 X plus price to book value and a pretty low combined Dividend Yield and Earnings Yield (about the same as you would get on the RSA 186 bond)......it looks like a prime candidate for a sell....especially in this risk on, risk off, emerging market situation we are in. 

My mistake (2 week old data), the combined DY & EY of Famous Brands is actually 2% (about 25%) BELOW the guaranteed return of 8.09% you would get on an RSA 186 bond with "no risk".....


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#78 Shortboy

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 07:35 PM

Gamma you miss the point completely... All i warned follow investors in this forum is not to take your message on face value and do more homework on thye pizza market in India... U got it now??? <_<

I go with HDB on this. Famous Brands is a reallllly expensive share. Look beyond its sky high PE. Look at Its price to cash generated from operations ratio. Its in the region of 68 X, add to this an 8 X plus price to book value and a pretty low combined Dividend Yield and Earnings Yield (about the same as you would get on the RSA 186 bond)......it looks like a prime candidate for a sell....especially in this risk on, risk off, emerging market situation we are in. 


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#79 HDB

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 05:05 PM

HDB, you been trying your best to reverse pump the market for months now to get out of your losing shorts! :P

 

Yes I own the share but I'm calling it as I see it....if you mean I was pumping FBR since around R35 all the way to R95 then I guess I have major clout on the JSE!

Fact is...what we say here on these boards have very little (read none) impact on the share price. The market moves on what the big boys are doing...you've been around long enough to know this..

 

Gamma you miss the point completely... All i warned follow investors in this forum is not to take your message on face value and do more homework on thye pizza market in India... U got it now??? <_<


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#80 HDB

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Posted 26 July 2013 - 04:54 PM

HDB, you been trying your best to reverse pump the market for months now to get out of your losing shorts! :P

Well i guess you were joking with that statement. right?

Cos boy i only know how much my lovely shorts has brought me in the last 6 months. In fact my bank manager has phoned me last week to say he is not accepting any more of my cash..His safe is full to the brim and cannot take any more of my monies!!  B)  :rolleyes:  :)


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HDB

The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!






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