7058 replies to this topic

[crowe]

i'm also long LHC @4025..trading the range with tp 4401

 

 

you sure we will see 4400?

[delta66]

i'm also long LHC @4025..trading the range with tp 4401

[walter10]

long LHC @ 4000 again tp 4250

[PickApprentice]

Agreed. But it's irresponsible to invest ones whole portfolio in 5 Small caps. That said, my issue is more with this self promoting muppet who always claims his calls were 'spot on' , never admits he is wrong and it's just generally a bit of a tosser... According to those who know him.

Tell you what, let's each of us pick 5 stocks for the year and monitor our performance against his. I'll even bring out my monkey and dartboard for the occasion!


 

 

 

Assuming that neither the dividend nor the rights offer was priced in until the dividend declaration on Friday:

Closing price on Friday (9/01): 10080c with a market cap of R 7 615 580 414 and 75 551 393 issued shares

Ex div price should be around: 10080- 2024 = 8056c with a market cap of R6 086 420 220 (about R1.5B less that before)

 

The company said that they would be issuing shares to a total of R2B at a discount of between 15% and 20% of the company's VWAP. I am however sure that they should not use the 30 day VWAP since it will be skewed as a result of the divi. 

 

So I will just assume that the new shares will be issued at a 20% discount to the ex-div price = 80%*8056c= 6445c a share and they will require 31 mil shares.

So the issue price of the new shares will be +/- R65 minimum 

 

So the price ex-rights should be around minimum: (31m*6445 + 75.551m*8056c)/(31m+75.551m) = 7587cps

 

This is the minimum that I would think it would be at since I used the 20% discount rate.

(I hope my assumptions and calculations are correct and make sense    )

 

 The issue price is the lower of R69 or the 30 days VWAP. 

 

Based on my calculation, it should be R77. 

[crowe]

long LHC @ 4000 again tp 4250

 

[Moonraker]

Assuming that neither the dividend nor the rights offer was priced in until the dividend declaration on Friday:

Closing price on Friday (9/01): 10080c with a market cap of R 7 615 580 414 and 75 551 393 issued shares

Ex div price should be around: 10080- 2024 = 8056c with a market cap of R6 086 420 220 (about R1.5B less that before)

 

The company said that they would be issuing shares to a total of R2B at a discount of between 15% and 20% of the company's VWAP. I am however sure that they should not use the 30 day VWAP since it will be skewed as a result of the divi. 

 

So I will just assume that the new shares will be issued at a 20% discount to the ex-div price = 80%*8056c= 6445c a share and they will require 31 mil shares.

So the issue price of the new shares will be +/- R65 minimum 

 

So the price ex-rights should be around minimum: (31m*6445 + 75.551m*8056c)/(31m+75.551m) = 7587cps

 

This is the minimum that I would think it would be at since I used the 20% discount rate.

(I hope my assumptions and calculations are correct and make sense    )

Many thanks yusufm 1. Quite a complicated calculation, but I think give or take 500cps you are correct.

[walter10]

Some volatility on BGA lately

[yusufm]

After Rights share price will be what ? ± R65 ?

Assuming that neither the dividend nor the rights offer was priced in until the dividend declaration on Friday:

Closing price on Friday (9/01): 10080c with a market cap of R 7 615 580 414 and 75 551 393 issued shares

Ex div price should be around: 10080- 2024 = 8056c with a market cap of R6 086 420 220 (about R1.5B less that before)

 

The company said that they would be issuing shares to a total of R2B at a discount of between 15% and 20% of the company's VWAP. I am however sure that they should not use the 30 day VWAP since it will be skewed as a result of the divi. 

 

So I will just assume that the new shares will be issued at a 20% discount to the ex-div price = 80%*8056c= 6445c a share and they will require 31 mil shares.

So the issue price of the new shares will be +/- R65 minimum 

 

So the price ex-rights should be around minimum: (31m*6445 + 75.551m*8056c)/(31m+75.551m) = 7587cps

 

This is the minimum that I would think it would be at since I used the 20% discount rate.

(I hope my assumptions and calculations are correct and make sense    )

Edited by yusufm1, 12 January 2015 - 09:44 AM.

[yusufm]

Long IVT 9850C

Out at 10220c

[Moonraker]

You are correct, the market usually reacts quite irrationally when it comes to big % divi payouts. I think it has something to do with investors/traders trying to manipulate their tax returns?
Anyways I don't have a very high target. Had a bit of free cash out so thought I might as well look for a small profit. TP 10250c

After Rights share price will be what ? ± R65 ?

[yusufm]

Giving money back to the shareholders should not result in an increase in share price. Market is really irrational on this. I am going to either buy the rights shares or wait for the share price to R89/90 (if it does).

Anyway, good luck Yusuf!

You are correct, the market usually reacts quite irrationally when it comes to big % divi payouts. I think it has something to do with investors/traders trying to manipulate their tax returns?
Anyways I don't have a very high target. Had a bit of free cash out so thought I might as well look for a small profit. TP 10250c

Edited by yusufm1, 10 January 2015 - 05:21 AM.

[PickApprentice]

Long IVT 9850C

 

Giving money back to the shareholders should not result in an increase in share price. Market is really irrational on this. I am going to either buy the rights shares or wait for the share price to R89/90 (if it does). 

 

Anyway, good luck Yusuf!

[yusufm]

Long IVT 9850C

[delta66]

i'm offloading at current levels

[Ninja]

Eish.... Make that R1675 for one naspers share. Anyone here buying or selling?

[Ninja]

R1643 is the price you can buy 1 naspers share for today..... Spectacular!!!!

What deflation??? Savings from cheaper oil going into tencents new online bank... For those that are not buying online games

Edited by Ninja, 07 January 2015 - 02:06 PM.

[@sirgrantfleming]

betting against beer! 

 

It's a trade that makes sense from a technical perspective but you will note from the attached chart that its broken the 200 at least 6 times in the last 4 years and in hindsight, each time has been a buying opportunity. Will this time be different? Time will tell... but I personally would not bet against SAB. Don't forget that SAB still has a significant presence in developed markets, including the US and Europe.

 

Screen Shot 2015-01-07 at 8.19.22 AM.png

wise words

[AJS]

Nice (potential) IHS setup on CFR?

 

 CFR_weekly.PNG   255.31KB   42 downloads

[delta66]

INL looking good for long from 9250+-

[delta66]

agree with some of the views re: SAB  there are far easier short trade setups..have a long order sitting on lateral support but have doubt price will reach that level