814 replies to this topic

[gamma]

Gamma i  completely disagree with you!! How can you be optimistic about our future business prospects?

We are last in the pecking line for everything... America went through it first and now they are more or less out of it..Europe is going through it now and will in another 12 month get out of this mess.. We my friend are still going to go through it...See what the next 24 months holds for us....Its going to be doom and gloom believe me...Any astute investor should be looking to capital preservation now and not going away on holiday or sitting back and saying we will get through this mess soon and all will be ok!!! Even if it means cashing in all your investments now, i say do it because you will be able to buy them much cheaper in 12 months time!!! I have already started cashing in from 3 months ago when that big fall in Kumba happened!!! Ive been through 3 major crashes and know from experience how its starts!Not going to get burnt again!! Each man for his own though.....

 

Sorry if im being blunt but thats the facts!!!

 

 

Yup, well time will tell and perhaps you will be proved right but I don't see a major crash, a correction sure, but not a crash (although maybe this is a matter of definition). Here's why:

 

I'm not disputing SA's economy is a laggard or not suffering due to poor leadership, but there are a couple factors that are different to the big downturns in the US and Europe.

 

1. The emerging middle class in SA is a driver, a big one, that doesn't exist in the aforementioned economies.

2. North of our border, many if not most, of the African economies are growing very well and that growth is only at the beginning of a long term cycle (and by long I mean 15-30 year cycle). SA companies that are exploiting that growth will benefit despite what happens in SA.

3. The weak rand will drive exports which will add some impetus to GDP growth. (Yes I know imports and inflation is a watch-out on the flip side of this coin) - but already recent data showed a surprise to the upside for precisely these reasons.

Do you really think an acceleration in US GDP, a turnaround in the Europe (our biggest trading partner) and a ticking along of BRIC countries is a recipe for a crash?

Given the above...the MTNs, SABs, BATs and their ilk...a collapse? really? Can you see demand disappearing for any length of time?

 

Yes sure, some stocks could take a big hit short term, including our pet CML but IMO there is enough quality/defensives that should benefit from the macro factors I point out above to more than cover underperformance elsewhere.

 

Of course something unexpected could always hit us in the face but I'm not hearing a clear argument from anyone for exactly what's so new that is driving it. Unsecured lending? maybe..though this hardly seems a big enough factor. Probably the biggest risk, albeit low, is a Chinese slow down/collapse. That will take us..and pretty much everyone else down with it.

 

So lets see..

[HDB]

Gamma i  completely disagree with you!! How can you be optimistic about our future business prospects?

We are last in the pecking line for everything... America went through it first and now they are more or less out of it..Europe is going through it now and will in another 12 month get out of this mess.. We my friend are still going to go through it...See what the next 24 months holds for us....Its going to be doom and gloom believe me...Any astute investor should be looking to capital preservation now and not going away on holiday or sitting back and saying we will get through this mess soon and all will be ok!!! Even if it means cashing in all your investments now, i say do it because you will be able to buy them much cheaper in 12 months time!!! I have already started cashing in from 3 months ago when that big fall in Kumba happened!!! Ive been through 3 major crashes and know from experience how its starts!Not going to get burnt again!! Each man for his own though.....

 

Sorry if im being blunt but thats the facts!!!

 

 

It might very well be another red and a few more next week. You have to remember that US markets are up huge YTD relative to us and so a pullback was inevitable. My take is that the market was simply waiting for an excuse to take serious profit off the table.

Problem is that our underperformance YTD means we have more to lose in this correction.

 

That said I don't see how anyone can be pessimistic. Remember, the reason that Uncle Bennie is pulling back stimulus is because the US economy is improving!

 

Also, Africa growth is very very good (ex-SA) and so our companies playing in that space will continue to do well. Even locally, the good company's will outperform - just look at FBRs latest qtrly update.

 

So my plan is basically to sit tight, do nothing, pick up the odd bargain. 

[gamma]

Another red day in the USA. I hope this doesn't repeat here tomorrow. Hopefully after today's big red it will be Buy buy or perhaps Goodbuy.

 

It might very well be another red and a few more next week. You have to remember that US markets are up huge YTD relative to us and so a pullback was inevitable. My take is that the market was simply waiting for an excuse to take serious profit off the table.

Problem is that our underperformance YTD means we have more to lose in this correction.

 

That said I don't see how anyone can be pessimistic. Remember, the reason that Uncle Bennie is pulling back stimulus is because the US economy is improving!

 

Also, Africa growth is very very good (ex-SA) and so our companies playing in that space will continue to do well. Even locally, the good company's will outperform - just look at FBRs latest qtrly update.

 

So my plan is basically to sit tight, do nothing, pick up the odd bargain. 

[orca]

Another red day in the USA. I hope this doesn't repeat here tomorrow. Hopefully after today's big red it will be Buy buy or perhaps Goodbuy.

Edited by Orca, 20 June 2013 - 08:15 PM.

[delta66]

Well...I must say, its a nice change to get smashed ALONG with the rest of the worlds markets rather than all by our lonesome

right you are gamma, misery likes company

[gamma]

Well...I must say, its a nice change to get smashed ALONG with the rest of the worlds markets rather than all by our lonesome

 

Bit of an over reaction to Ben. Thought he handled it well and it had to be done at some point. 

Things will hopefully return to a more normal level of volatility soon. 

Nice also to see that SA data this week were better than expected.

[saint1]

also added to existing holding at 790, results out next month.

 

back in with ELI at 7.81 

[delta66]

back in with ELI at 7.81 

[gamma]

Looks good. PE a bit high but will check out the peer PE or sector PE. Thanks.

 

 

Orca, I suggest starting a thread titled 'Charts that look like like these'

Would be good to see a range of stocks with smooth uptrends.

 

And since I'm too lazy to troll through all the JSE stocks it would be easier to have others chip in.

 

chart should be a weekly and at least 3yr

 

Here's one to start the ball rolling.

 

 Screen Shot 2013-06-18 at 9.25.45 PM.png   45.16KB   60 downloads

[orca]

Hey ORCA

 

You always mention that you need to find shares than consistantly rise long term like CML,MTA and PNC...

 

Have you considered REMGRO? If so, what do you think of the share? If not...maybe you should ;-)

Looks good. PE a bit high but will check out the peer PE or sector PE. Thanks.

[brads]

Hey ORCA

 

You always mention that you need to find shares than consistantly rise long term like CML,MTA and PNC...

 

Have you considered REMGRO? If so, what do you think of the share? If not...maybe you should ;-)

[gamma]

hey gamma! welcome back from your brief sabbatical..my turn coming up soon.  off to UK for 2 weeks, wish it was for holiday but will find time to have a break.

 

enjoy! maybe catch some cricket if you get there in time...unless the rest of the tournament is washed out..

[delta66]

hey gamma! welcome back from your brief sabbatical..my turn coming up soon.  off to UK for 2 weeks, wish it was for holiday but will find time to have a break.

Edited by delta66, 16 June 2013 - 09:00 PM.

[gamma]

Blood in the streets!

 

Think I'll go to Mozambeach for a few days to avoid making any emotional trades

 

Enjoy the ride boys!

 

 

Well I'm back..didn't look at the markets all week and had a nice time not doing it 

I find when the entire market is getting smashed you either trade very attentively (time consuming and you need a strong stomach), you add to your longs, or you take a break! either of these 3 options generally worked well for me over the years.

 

Was up 18% ytd end of last week and down another half % this week. Can live with it but lets hope things quieten down a bit this coming week. Can only take so much holiday..

 

So while driving around SA I did a bit of research on one of my favourite companies. FBR is rocking. Wherever I went I saw expansion and consolidation. They really are pushing the hub concept. Hard to find any FBR brand without at least 1,2 or in some cases 4 other brands clustered around it. Also really liking M&B's push into the quick serve coffee market. The M&B 'on the move' concept seems to be working well and after many years in the US and seeing what coffee saturation really looks like, I see tons of opportunity to push on in this area, particularly with so few real international competitors to challenge.

[delta66]

added more to OCE at 8493

[soutie]

WESCOAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
(Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa)
(Registration number 2005/006913/06)
JSE Share code: WSL & ISIN: ZAE000069639
("Wescoal" or "the Company")


OFFER TO ACQUIRE A COAL TRADING BUSINESS AND CAUTIONARY
ANNOUNCEMENT


1. INTRODUCTION

Shareholders are advised that Chandler Coal Proprietary Limited (“Chandler”), a wholly
owned subsidiary of Wescoal, has made an offer to acquire a coal trading business from a
third party (the "Third Party") (the "Third Party's coal business"), subject to certain suspensive
conditions (“the acquisition”).

2. RATIONALE FOR THE ACQUISITION
Wescoal is a junior miner with a trading arm, Chandler that is a coal supplier to the Southern
African domestic market with offices and depots situated in Gauteng, Eastern and Western
Cape. Since 2008 the various coal supply companies operating in the South African domestic
market have had to compete with the primary producers resulting in reduced volumes and
pressure on margins.
The acquisition of the Third Party's coal business will give the trading division the critical mass
required to negotiate and overcome these challenges. In addition, significant synergy savings
and the profits generated by the Third Party's coal business will enhance Wescoal earnings and
shareholder value.


3. DESCRIPTION OF THE THIRD PARTY'S COAL BUSINESS
The Third Party is a coal supply business operating within the Southern African region with
offices and various depots situated in Gauteng, Eastern and Western Cape.


4. TERMS AND CONDITIONS OF THE ACQUISITION
4.1 On 7 June 2013 Chandler made an offer to acquire the Third Party's coal business with
effective from 1 October 2013 (“effective date”). The offer was accepted by the Third Party
on 10 June 2013, subject to various suspensive conditions.
4.2 The total purchase price is R 79 million consisting of property, movable assets and
goodwill, subject to inventory adjustment on the effective date.
4.3 The acquisition is conditional upon inter alia:
4.3.1 The completion of all legal agreements necessary to complete the acquisition;
4.3.2 The conclusion of a legal and financial due diligence investigation into the Third Party's
coal business to the satisfaction of Chandler;
4.3.3 Chandler being able to secure funding for the acquisition;
4.3.4 Conclusion of a four year restraint of trade agreement;
4.3.5 Approval of the acquisition by Wescoal shareholders to the extend required;
4.3.6 All the necessary regulatory approvals including JSE Limited (“JSE”) and Competition
Commission approvals for the acquisition.
 

Get on this bus guys there's still time, this ride up is not over by a looooooong shot....!

[brads]

Surely WHL is a no brainer at these levels?

[delta66]

glad i held on EOH yesterday, seems like they playing catchup on losses other stocks experienced in yesterday's bloodbath.  down over 5% today...i know this one is rated somewhat "expensive" by some analysts but couldn't resist adding at 5084

[gamma]

Blood in the streets!

 

Think I'll go to Mozambeach for a few days to avoid making any emotional trades

 

Enjoy the ride boys!

[BBW]

...added more SAB @49255

 

...tussling with the idea of adding more to Brait and EOH at current prices

Add RMI to these...?