271 replies to this topic

[soutie]

Take a read of below for a somewhat different view on reason for the commodity rout of late.

 

http://online.barron...46773#pq=uzp6AY

 

This is gonna take a few years to unravel....

[soutie]

Personally I wouldn't do that. Take a punt long that is.

Look at their results just released they're skirting break-even. What's gonna happen when their mega sister Minas Rio starts ramping up production....?

Iron Ore spot still gonna drop to around $40 ish a ton & stay for couple months there. Objective clearly stated by Rio Tinto CEO forced closures on higher cost producers. Look further down this thread & you'll get what I've been posting for months now.... Short any bounce....

[Taurus]

Thanks Taurus, I am going to take a small punt at ~106.00

Just be careful. I would not bet on where all of this ends up. It is pretty complex. I try to read the tea leaves but can get my head around the full implications. It depends on to many factors. But here another fife cents from the pundits:

 

http://www.zerohedge...ulation-arrives

 

does not bear to well for our resources and the Runt.

[carlosthejackal]

Thanks Taurus, I am going to take a small punt at ~106.00

[HDB]

Anyone long here?

depends on your timeframe...if you want to trade it, too dangerous...Long term investment for 5 year minimum, worth a punt!!

continue to add as it falls!!

[Taurus]

Well, my gut feel tells me not all the downside is priced in yet. So short would it be. Some other people got to say this:

 

http://www.zerohedge...nue-china-opens

 

 

[carlosthejackal]

Anyone long here?

[soutie]

Soutie, doubt you shall see 175 for a long time as post div the market has seen substantial volumes, 165- was a good short number as it is 159.25 now.

 .......Back in Short is I....Looking for a quick profit this time

[_rookie_]

So anybody making hay here on the Kumba stock?

[Mr_SA]

https://www.psg.co.z...06-248578b949b5

 

Check page 6 of the attached

[_rookie_]

The slump of KIO must also be affecting EXX and AGL...not holding KIO but my EXX holdings are bleeding. In it for the long run though.

Also sure KIO will go below R100, EXX to R80 which is another buying opportunity for me personally.

Edited by _rookie_, 13 April 2015 - 05:55 PM.

[BlythZ]

holding... and have been for a while erk

Holding longs? 

[@sirgrantfleming]

The question is, Is there anyone buying Kumba? 

 

This is fast becoming a penny stock 

holding... and have been for a while erk

[BlythZ]

Anyone still shorting KIO?

The question is, Is there anyone buying Kumba? 

 

This is fast becoming a penny stock 

[Fuxx]

Anyone still shorting KIO?

[Shortboy]

Not so sure about the loss making piece...just yet. Was looking into KIO numbers earlier today. If we assume there is an increase of 10% in KIOs unit cash costs for 2015 the figure comes in at about R270 per ton (weighted average between Sishen and Kolomela), well below the $47 ore price in China reported on recently by Bloomberg.

 

A fundamental shift currently underway in Chinese growth strategy toward consumerisation and services instead of buildings and infrastructure coupled with shrinking demand and significantly increasing iron ore supply from Ozzie and Brazil could lead KIO back to and possibly below its 2014 NAV of R64.....  

[Sac1]

Indeed. See chart (Source: Deutsche Bank)

 

KIO_prices.PNG

 

Iron ore price v.s. the price realised by KIO.

China is also subsidising their iron miner putting more risk on international shares. I am also looking at buying below R100

[AJS]

KIO will bleed more, they not profitable at current iron ore price...I'll take a gamble below R 100

 

Indeed. See chart (Source: Deutsche Bank)

 

 KIO_prices.PNG   22.21KB   68 downloads

 

Iron ore price v.s. the price realised by KIO.

Edited by AJS, 10 April 2015 - 10:08 AM.

[Mr.Balls]

KIO will bleed more, they not profitable at current iron ore price...I'll take a gamble below R 100

[BlythZ]

R138 and still going down, is there any bottom down there?