271 replies to this topic

[snoop]

R373 seems to be major resistance last week - if we break that dont think there will be turning back...

 

Is the bottom in - or is knife still falling. 

[vlam]

Positive news out of China on Sunday (random links):

http://english.cri.c...2724s817651.htm

http://www.bloomberg...-cctv-says.html

http://www.reuters.c...=topNews&rpc=71

 

Another older article which I found interesting:

http://www.mining.co...n-slides-72714/

 

So wonder if this means we might have hit bottom for now...?  Will have to wait and see...

 

[snoop]

600 000+ trades in the first 10 minutes on opening.

[vlam]

What your analysis excludes is

 

- The production issues at Sishen.

- The addition of Kolomela 

 

And the FY13 average rand price (as per their results presentation) was R9.62.

 

Say the FY14 average rand price is R10.60 - that's an additional ~10% increase in earnings (in rand terms)

Edited by vlam-hobbyist, 16 March 2014 - 08:10 PM.

[BloodBurner9000]

Well I added to my holdings, unfortunately average price still high, at R412/share. Kumba's costs per unit still way below product price. Planning to hold very long term. <br /><br />Sent from my GT-I9300 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app<br /><br />

[snoop]

Some good newss when I googled Kumba today.

 

http://www.africanmi...ews.php?id=1971

 

https://www.google.c...HZbwNcg5GygDZ6w

 

 

[@sirgrantfleming]

AAARRRRGGG

I clicked sell instead of buy...what a chop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

         

Good day to make that mistake!

[soutie]

KIO opening a can of whip-a** on me    looks like you winning the poll...for now!

 

jokes aside though..my view is 340.00/bottom

Jokes aside I have a kidney & lung on E-bay to raise some cash.

[delta66]

YOUR'E OUT

KIO opening a can of whip-a** on me    looks like you winning the poll...for now!

 

jokes aside though..my view is 340.00/bottom

[soutie]

HDB...low reached today ie R355.37!!

 

YOUR'E OUT

[soutie]

Don't buy irresponsibly ladies and gents ...

 

But buy. This is going to be good money in a year's time. 

 

Negative sentiment creates the best opportunities to pick up great counters at attractive prices... 

 

Easy does it.

 

Sensible advice right there.....

[@sirgrantfleming]

Snot Klap of note since divi.....Bargain yet...?

 

Snap pole...Price at month end...Winner gets to brag for 2 days.

Soutie @ R327.00

400

[ThatBlackGuy]

Don't buy irresponsibly ladies and gents ...

 

But buy. This is going to be good money in a year's time. 

 

Negative sentiment creates the best opportunities to pick up great counters at attractive prices... 

 

Easy does it.

[hexadecimal]

AAARRRRGGG

I clicked sell instead of buy...what a chop!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

         

[delta66]

HDB...low reached today ie R355.37!!

well..hope so.  bought another chunk at 358.00 averaged down just short of 361

 

if need be will keep buying every 10% drop until reversal..vengeance(money) will be mine

Edited by delta66, 14 March 2014 - 11:29 AM.

[soutie]

HDB...low reached today ie R355.37!!

Taking my lead from these....

 

http://www.mining.co...comeback-64223/

[HDB]

Snot Klap of note since divi.....Bargain yet...?

 

Snap pole...Price at month end...Winner gets to brag for 2 days.

Soutie @ R327.00

HDB...low reached today ie R355.37!!

Edited by HDB, 14 March 2014 - 11:22 AM.

[soutie]

Snot Klap of note since divi.....Bargain yet...?

 

Snap pole...Price at month end...Winner gets to brag for 2 days.

Soutie @ R327.00

[ThatBlackGuy]

SHP at 16.5x with sustainable and reasonably predictable growth give or take. KIO has made super profits over last couple of years with iron ore price north of USD 130. 8 PE is therefore very misleading. Already more than 20% downside to earnings if you plug in spot. Also not cheap on P/NPV basis. People forget that the then ISCOR almost closed the iron ore business in 1999. Now I don't say it will get that bad again but it is premature to call a bottom just yet.

 

P/E could be misleading based on your argument. But lets assume the price does weaken.

 

What your analysis excludes is

 

- The production issues at Sishen.

- The addition of Kolomela 

 

Assuming that the issues at Sishen are temporary. The iron ore price weakness should be offset by normalisation of volumes from Sishen.

 

The business should generate free cash of R30bn per year still. At this price, its a steal. (Anglo needs this cash!)

 

Caveat though is that sentiment may be negative for a while longer, and only the medium to long term investor should start building a position.

[Zero Hedge]

And let's not forget...resource earnings are cyclical...and we may soon realize how cyclical it can be if the iron ore price doesn't hold the USD100 level.