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#61 M e r l i n

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Posted 15 March 2015 - 06:31 PM

Attached File  Kumba.JPG   86.5KB   37 downloads

Who shorted this one?

 

Price at 226- 16 Feb, 175.63 now  -  nice profit of over 50 / share and still in short mode

 

http://www.macrobusi...iron-ore-price/

http://www.reuters.c...N0V81RD20150129

http://www.bloomberg...sts-cut-to-2018

http://www.macrobusi...sell-fortescue/


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#62 M e r l i n

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Posted 15 March 2015 - 06:14 PM

Who shorted this one?

 

Price at 226- 16 Feb, 175.63 now  -  nice profit of over 50 / share and still in short mode

 

http://www.macrobusi...iron-ore-price/

http://www.reuters.c...N0V81RD20150129

http://www.bloomberg...sts-cut-to-2018

http://www.macrobusi...sell-fortescue/

 

 

 

 

Watch this baby fall out the pram after Div payment.

 

The problem with all shares is the PE is calculated on the present price but last years div, with the diminishing price and lower div it sort of appears that all is semi OK which of course it is not.

 

Short KIO for all you are worth and you won't be sorry, there is so much surplus iron ore on the planet it is not funny, the Australians can mine this stuff at half our production cost price and the mines in China are coming on stream at even cheaper costs.


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#63 M e r l i n

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Posted 10 March 2015 - 08:14 PM

Great, that is the beauty of the market, you can make money no matter which way the market is moving, you just have to work out where everyone is going and get there before them.

 

Merlin, atleast some of us shorted the bugger :-)


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#64 SB45

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Posted 10 March 2015 - 07:42 PM

Agreed, typically a share rises prior to div LDT, Kumba has steadily gone from bad to worse and counting - 188.19 with no bottom in sight, it is a share for the Moody Blues

To Our Children's Children's Children


Merlin, atleast some of us shorted the bugger :-)
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#65 M e r l i n

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Posted 09 March 2015 - 08:28 PM

Agreed, typically a share rises prior to div LDT, Kumba has steadily gone from bad to worse and counting - 188.19 with no bottom in sight, it is a share for the Moody Blues

To Our Children's Children's Children

KIO is a dead loss. China's steel manufacturing has shrunk and will continue to shrink well into 2016. Simon Brown.


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#66 orca

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Posted 09 March 2015 - 03:38 PM

KIO is a dead loss. China's steel manufacturing has shrunk and will continue to shrink well into 2016. Simon Brown.


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I started here with nothing and still have most of it left.


#67 @sirgrantfleming

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Posted 09 March 2015 - 01:07 PM

I'm in for the long haul at 224 and holding thumbs ;)

have to sell my thumbs now

 

:)


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#68 soutie

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Posted 09 March 2015 - 01:03 PM

Iron Ore now @ $63/ton


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#69 McEdama

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Posted 09 March 2015 - 12:33 PM

wow wow wow!!! KIO @ R191.75 who would have thought! @ this rate it will off the top 40 by next month


Edited by McEdama, 09 March 2015 - 12:35 PM.

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#70 M e r l i n

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Posted 06 March 2015 - 07:29 AM

Down is easy to predict when the writing is on the wall.

 

Merlin indeed.


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#71 MHB

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Posted 05 March 2015 - 03:30 PM

And here he warned of R200...
The man is a magician. He can see things coming

Merlin indeed.


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#72 Sugafoot

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Posted 05 March 2015 - 11:15 AM

Sugafoot I think 250 is very optimistic, it briefly traded almost there day before yesterday at it's low for the day, my gut says closer to 200-, remember the iron ore situation shall take several years to reverse.



I would take the money and pain now... The way things are looking for the iron ore market, there is allot of pain still to be left... We could even see KIO at 250 very soon... Don't be caught catching a falling knife


And here he warned of R200...
The man is a magician. He can see things coming
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#73 M e r l i n

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Posted 04 March 2015 - 10:18 PM

This is the Merlin "I told you so" post, when I posted trailing on 3rd June last year the close was 333.32, the close today was 219.01 and I still would not touch it.

A great company in a terrible sector.

 

Guys, talk to you not before 3 months time, Kumba shall still take loads of punishment (I hope) in light of oversupply of iron ore, remember the market has no loyalty's, it is merely supply and demand.


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#74 M e r l i n

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Posted 16 February 2015 - 11:17 PM

Watch this baby fall out the pram after Div payment.

 

The problem with all shares is the PE is calculated on the present price but last years div, with the diminishing price and lower div it sort of appears that all is semi OK which of course it is not.

 

Short KIO for all you are worth and you won't be sorry, there is so much surplus iron ore on the planet it is not funny, the Australians can mine this stuff at half our production cost price and the mines in China are coming on stream at even cheaper costs.


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#75 @sirgrantfleming

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Posted 13 February 2015 - 02:21 PM

Medium term short all bounces me thinks. I know I keep banging on about it but here it is again.

 

http://www.bdlive.co...-grip-on-market

 

Lower highs & lower lows mean we're not at the bottom yet...!

I'm in for the long haul at 224 and holding thumbs ;)


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#76 soutie

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Posted 12 February 2015 - 05:44 PM

Medium term short all bounces me thinks. I know I keep banging on about it but here it is again.

 

http://www.bdlive.co...-grip-on-market

 

Lower highs & lower lows mean we're not at the bottom yet...!


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#77 soutie

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Posted 10 February 2015 - 04:32 PM

After digesting the results in more detail I'm OK with being short as there's more negative sentiment in the air than positives. Their capex being substantially reduced while trying to disguise that the stripping costs at Sishen are a lot. Thabazimbi's low grade coupled with Mittal's reduced off take spell a slow drift down to touch R200 where it does become a bargain.

The main driver has been their massive divi, while it's still good the potential upside in share appreciation is min, there's other counters out there for fund managers to get similar returns while not participating in a out of favour sector in a volatile industry.

My 2c  


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#78 Shortboy

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Posted 10 February 2015 - 02:14 PM

I opened a LIMIT KIO long order at R185.

 

Yip, need to do a bit more work on the viability of a short. Here goes:

 

Profile Data Consensus (made up of opinions of 4 KIO analysts) for Headline Earnings was R29.89 per share. According to trading statement on 15 Jan KIO will exceed expectations by achieving between R33.10 and R35.60 per share - with an overall negative response from the market on the day - supporting growing negative perception dogging this share.

 

Profile Data Consensus for dividend (a BIG driver of KIO's price) per share at Dec 14 Final is R21.91 ( I assume this includes the interim dividend already paid in '14 of R15.61). So, if the final dividend is less than R6.30 it will be below expectations and could trigger a sell off.

 

The overall Profile Data Consensus view from 4 brokers tracking this share has been SELL as of 5 Feb 15 - which is typical of analysts, they always recommend SELL when it's too late and BUY when it's too late.

 

Daily 20 day chart trend still firmly down with share price sitting right on the 20 MA trend line and 10 day MA now below 20 day. Problem here is that the price is now where it was in Oct '09, the last level of support and a perfect place for a reversal back up.

 

Nah! I will give going short of KIO at this level a miss. You just cant trust company directors, they are worse than bankers. 

 

Looking forward to a nasty surprise on Tuesday!!

Div came in higher than expected so no sharp negative price action. Long order at R185 cancelled.


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IG SA40


#79 @sirgrantfleming

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Posted 10 February 2015 - 12:13 PM

1st glance not good looks like a short to me

hmmmm... not diabolical, and the dividend of 773 is not bad, considering. 3% way better than a lot of others' out there... I may put a split buy in triggering down a few levels for long term. Although, I will wait to see how Assore comes through...


Edited by @sirgrantfleming, 10 February 2015 - 12:15 PM.

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#80 soutie

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Posted 10 February 2015 - 09:07 AM

1st glance not good looks like a short to me


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