85 replies to this topic

[gamma]

up 5.6% today.

 

13th biggest company on the JSE now.

 

Here's current snapshot of top 19

 

 Screen Shot 2015-01-08 at 8.24.24 PM.png   99.96KB   14 downloads

[gamma]

@Gamma; do you really think it will go up much more? Seems very expensive at the moment...

 

yes. growth prospects still look very strong. remember its been looking expensive from way back. 

 

Could be wrong of course

[davidp13]

@Gamma; do you really think it will go up much more? Seems very expensive at the moment...

in $ terms its cheap and personally working in a business with an IPS division there is lots more space to grow + APN is also positioning themselves correctly. Yes I do own the share, but from much lower numbers

[chrisp]

@Gamma; do you really think it will go up much more? Seems very expensive at the moment...

[gamma]

http://www.moneyweb....-next-two-years

[gamma]

Closed over 400 

[gamma]

Also the Japan deal.
Keep in mind Japan is the second biggest Pharmaceutical market.
They have there fingers in so many pies at the moment...

I suspect it may have something to do with this
http://data.moneyweb...s.asp?id=240725
Check out all the insider trades towards the end of October just before this was announced. I bought a short while ago when it dipped and its already up 36%. Overtook most of my other shares. Thanks Gamma for the heads up. I believe this latest development gives them a foot into Chinese baby formula market anyone else know any details?

[joker247]

I suspect it may have something to do with this

http://data.moneyweb...s.asp?id=240725

Check out all the insider trades towards the end of October just before this was announced. I bought a short while ago when it dipped and its already up 36%. Overtook most of my other shares. Thanks Gamma for the heads up. I believe this latest development gives them a foot into Chinese baby formula market anyone else know any details?

 

[newbie]

What has been going on with Aspen?? Took a month to focus on exams and see its +~20% up??

[gamma]

Good piece of business..

Selling the US rights for 300mil USD but will continue to supply Mylan.

 

[gamma]

So here is something the analysts havent cottoned on to yet.

Draft regulation has been put out by government that if implemented will ban companies from using incentives to effectively discount their products at the pharmacy level. Company's like APN spend quite a bit in this area and so expect to see a reduction in OPEX as a result. How much this will add to the margin is not clear. 

Will it impact on sales? Not sure either but gut feeling is that APN will be less affected than smaller companies, perhaps even see an increase in sales as they take more share.

 

You heard it here first!

[gamma]

This had absolutely no negative affect on APN's price. On the contrary. Results were in line with the nice trading update.

 

 

South Africa's Aspen FY profit misses estimates as local market weighs
 

 

Analysts were a bit greedy. Can't believe that was their expectation. How often does a 20B rand company grow at 50%!

 

Saw interview with Saad and got distinct feeling we will see quite a few more deals this year. 

Also bloody sharp business to sell the Arixtra US rights to Mylan for $300mil. 

 

When I look at the prospects going forward this share still looks good value, if not cheap. I'm sure this statement will receive a wave of criticism from the "PE vigilantes" here on Sharechat!

 

I'll be adding more on the next dip.

[Moonraker]

This had absolutely no negative affect on APN's price. On the contrary. Results were in line with the nice trading update.

 

 

South Africa's Aspen FY profit misses estimates as local market weighs
 

Aspen, which supplies to about 150 countries that include Australia, Nigeria, Brazil and the United States, said diluted headline EPS totalled 1,016 cents for the year to the end of June, compared with 787 cents a year earlier.

That was below the 1,071 cents estimate in a Reuters poll of 12 analysts.

 

[grumpy old man]

Yeah mentioned sometime back that I thought APN was a good addition to my long term portfolio and although I am delighted by the performance and outlook as always when a plan works well I regret not purchasing more.

[joker247]

Yeah thanks Gamma. I bought some when it dropped a short while back and its up 15% already.

[flexbender]

up 45% since I wrote this 1 year ago :-)

 

Couldn't even find the tread it was so long ago...!

Good call gamma.

 

See my post on LT Portfolio thread.

[gamma]

Started scaling in around 219. Will look to build a nice position over the next few months.

 

Buy and hold and it'll soon be gold

 

 

 

 

 ...maybe gold is not the best analogy...

 

 

up 45% since I wrote this 1 year ago :-)

[Moonraker]

Hoping for a bounce back soon, now that Glaxo has completed their partial sale of APN stock.

GSK completes sale of Aspen shares


In accordance with section 122(3)( B) of the Companies Act, No. 71 of 2008 (“the Act”), and section
3.83( B) of the JSE Listings Requirements, holders of ordinary shares in the Company are advised
that:

Glaxo Group Limited (“GSK”), has disposed of Aspen Holdings ordinary shares, such that its
beneficial interests in Aspen Holdings now amounts to 12.4% of the total number of shares in
issue.

But what about that LT trade of 9,940,000 @250 ??

Last 10 Trades of the day

Date           PDT ..Price Volume

20/11 17:50 LT 25000 9,940,000

20/11 17:48 OP 25743 308

20/11 17:45 OP 25716 79,122

20/11 17:44 OP 25692 1,000,000

20/11 17:37 OP 25652 350,000

20/11 17:00 OCP 25700 0

20/11 17:00 AT 25700 138,022

20/11 16:49 AT 25699 100

20/11 16:49 AT 25699 466

20/11 16:49 AT 25699 89

[BBW]

Tight SL's in this market will kill you cash...

Yes, but I didn't think it was that tight; a bit under support (@25875/26000)?

 

I also read in a study somewhere that cutting your trades @ +-0.7% (loss), works out better in the long run than waiting for more (say -2%), so I'm actually a bit confused/torn in two. Maybe one should either have a very far away/no SL OR a very tight SL??

[davidp13]

Stopped out at 25555; now at 25750  Once again this (expensive) lesson learned; do NOT trade with SL's, not on good, long term stock!! I don't care what everybody else says, but stops has cost me much more than it has protected me in the past.  

 

Tight SL's in this market will kill you cash...