17 replies to this topic

[soutie]

Anyone riding this one last couple days & managed keep contents of their stomach in tact...?

[soutie]

Generally when a stock gets sold off heavily as what happened here the 2nd  &  3rd days are also down days though the volume & drop not so emphasized. So waiting for the 4th day it usually rebounds as all the panic selling has gone & value guys, bottom feeders & more importantly short traders start to buy thus you pick up decent stocks at knock down prices.

That said if it is still falling then ,4th day, something else is up....

[Sugafoot]

Copper has fell below $3lb & could fall further after world growth prospects just got kicked down.
Still down over 10% as I type bit much...!
Will apply the 3-day rule....

Soutie, what's the 3 day rule?

[soutie]

Copper has fell below $3lb & could fall further after world growth prospects just got kicked down.

Still down over 10% as I type bit much...!

Will apply the 3-day rule....

[SB45]

I think its the exposure to Oil, Copper and Nickel, news reporting falling prices.

[McEdama]

Gee Wzzz!!!! What's up GLN? falling like a tone of bricks....

[SB45]

The GLN beating is getting worse it seems. 7.5% down today.

[Lamarje]

I think this stock is taking the hit of the market for now....it will get going soon I guess...

[Queen B]

This has been a frustrating share so far. Just been going down.
Maybe if share was listed in a more buoyant JSE and FTSE
All about timing I guess

[Zero Hedge]

As JJBen pointed out the price is made in London...so watch FTSE and global macro...local longs won't rush in but build long positions over time which should provide some support which could see it ourperforming peers.

[Queen B]

Anyone have any thoughts on where this share price will be heading?
Will either pullback after the initial euphoria has subsided, or start climbing from the 54 mark

[Zero Hedge]

Guys herewith a very good summary on what is required for GLN to be included in Top40 and Swix by middle December. Bottom line doubt if will happen this early...as it seems the 420m shares needs to be bought by local fund managers by 30 Nov for it to be considered for inclusion after Dec futures expiry.

 

INDEX INCLUSION:

 

The minimum requirement for a stock to be included in the JSE Top40 and Swix40 indices is: 5% of the free float market cap needs to be held on the local register STRATE, and that this 5% of free float market cap needs to be greater than the average free float market cap of current index members.

 

This average free float market cap is currently ZAR35bn as per exchange calcs.

 

5% of GLEN 63.57% free float on a ZAR730bn market cap = approx ZAR23bn, so actually closer to 7.5% {35bn/(63.57%*730bn) } of the GLEN free float market cap needs to be held on STRATE.

 

These conditions are reviewed quarterly based on the data from the last trading day of the preceding month to futures expiry.

 

FAST ENTRY RULE:

 

There is also a "Fast entry rule" which states that if the Gross market cap of a company is greater than 1% of the All share (approx ZAR85bn as per exchange calcs), then as long as the stock satisfies 5% free float rule, it will be included in the Top40 index with 2 days notice.

 

When asked how often the exchange get data from STRATE, the response was "quarterly, but given this is a special situation, the data will need to be gathered more frequently".

 

We estimate 5% of free float to be approximately 420m GLEN shares, and with apparently only 6m shares of borrow available on listing date (to fulfill conversion settlement cycle uncertainty), in our view it seems unlikely that 5% of the free float will be held locally any time soon,

 

Unless, local clients are currently holding GLEN offshore and will convert on the listing date in SA?

 

(Note: Gross market cap means the ZAR730bn market cap of Glencore i.e. is well above ZAR85bn - so this condition is already satisfied – the main requirement is thus that still needs to satisfy free float rule, ie. ZAR35bn or 420m shares need to be bought on the 13^th.)

[jaDEB]

Also thinking of buying some GLN, any1 else buying?

[JJBen]

ZeroH, when is the cut-off? With futures close-out? That is R1.1Billion per day for the next ~24 trading days. The price will mimic the FTSE price for most of that time.

 

We should have off-book block trades for 100Mil or so. I don't think we have any price surprises to come - maybe some weakness in AGL due to rotation from AGL to Glencore.

 

[Queen B]

Put in a bid at R54.50
Dipping my toe into the water and will see where it goes the next week or so

[Queen B]

Any ideas what the listing price will be?

[Zero Hedge]

Doubt it will be included in Top 40 Index by Dec cutoff. For that to happen local fund managers will have to buy around 450 million Glencore shares between tomorrow and early Dec...a tall order. But the listing should create some excitement tomorrow...watching this one with great interest. Bought stock on London register a couple of weeks ago.

[Lamarje]

Hello

 

I'm looking at the Glencore listing guys.

 

Glencore is a diversified commodities group who are currently listed on the FTSE and the Heng Seng. They are listing on the JSE to gain access to the strong institutional investor base in South Africa and in recognition of the company’s increased profile in Africa.

 

The main differentiator between itself and the likes of Anglo American, BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto is that the company relies heavily on commodities trading and marketing. According to management this allows the company to diversify away from commodity price volatility and provides a competitive advantage in terms of better understanding commodity price movements. It also has a very solid customer base, good economies of scale as well as a sector leading growth in copper.

 

I'm looking at this as an opportunity to get into a stock that could be listed on the JSE Top 40 within the next few weeks which will add to the price significantly.

 

Whats your views guys?