52 replies to this topic

[yusufm]

I read a similar article a week ago. The figures they are using to work out discount/premium to NAV are outdated by 3 or 4 weeks (in which listed property has dropped substantially). The premiums are now much less, and CPL and RDF were actually trading at a discount until last week Thursdays revival.

 

Also took a (relatively) large chunk of FFA before tomorrow's results (short term trade using CFDs). A 5% move will work wonders on my portfolio. I'm expecting better than average results but you never know 

Edited by yusufm1, 10 February 2014 - 08:33 PM.

[Goliath]

Interesting read on moneyweb today:

 

http://www.moneyweb....cer-psg-asset-m

 

What do you guys think?

[yusufm]

Currently:

 

CPL: +6%

Valued maybe 4% below where I would think it should be trading

 

FFA: +2% (doubled up today as results are out on tuesday with a +/-60c dividend)

looking for another 6% dividend incl.

 

GRT: +3%

R24 post-results is my target

 

RDF: +2.6%

960c is target

Edited by yusufm1, 06 February 2014 - 05:10 PM.

[Moonraker]

GRT, RDF, CPL all spiking at the moment. Does it have to do with the ECB keeping the rates the same Moonraker?

Maybe, due to slightly better sentiment regarding EM's after dovish talk by Draghi.

But hell, even SAB is developing a backbone today, albeit a limp one. 

[Moonraker]

Property shouldn't be viewed the same was as general equities, they remain a different asset class altogether. I prefer to compare them to bonds, and fixed deposits. I've been in RDF for the past 3 years, and what I've lost in terms of Capital appreciation, has long been paid to me in the form of tax free interest.

 

I still believe that Property should be left to those with Long-term, income seeking portfolios, because they'll not give you much movement in share price over the short term. One thing for sure, Listed property will continue generating income, and it'll continue growing at around 7% annually, regardless of what traders are willing to pay for the shares... so i'm gonna stay on until my payouts equal my initial capital, and i have the time to do this...     

Yeah, but what do you mean 'tax free interest' - it's fully taxable, unless you mean the SARS interest exemption covers all of it.

[WINH]

Property shouldn't be viewed the same was as general equities, they remain a different asset class altogether. I prefer to compare them to bonds, and fixed deposits. I've been in RDF for the past 3 years, and what I've lost in terms of Capital appreciation, has long been paid to me in the form of tax free interest.

 

I still believe that Property should be left to those with Long-term, income seeking portfolios, because they'll not give you much movement in share price over the short term. One thing for sure, Listed property will continue generating income, and it'll continue growing at around 7% annually, regardless of what traders are willing to pay for the shares... so i'm gonna stay on until my payouts equal my initial capital, and i have the time to do this...     

[yusufm]

have a look at a long term chart of grt.  this one is going down down down.(nast H and S ) i assume that others in the sector will follow the same path,especially since we have a good chance of some more interest rate hikes.

I'm not much of a techy, but it looks like the H&S has already played out? or is there point that you would say would completely the pattern?

[Moonraker]

RDF, GRT, CPL all up today. Is it a momentary bounce or has support been found...?

 

ECB rates announcement today could take some pressure off EM's - ameliorating US tapering effect and higher bond yields.

Might be generally positive for our market incl. listed property.

I think any downside to local listed property is limited as the bond market has discounted at least another 50 basis pts. rates increase.

But, who knows for sure ? Not me.

 

 

 

The ECB is due to announce its decision at 1245 GMT. Some investors also speculate it could suspend its sterilization program - operations to soak up money put back in circulation from the ECB's buying of government debt.

At minimum, investors expect the ECB chief Mario Draghi to drop hints of his readiness to ease, which could help counter worries about dwindling stimulus from the Federal Reserve.

[bulls]

RDF, GRT, CPL all up today. Is it a momentary bounce or has support been found...?

have a look at a long term chart of grt.  this one is going down down down.(nast H and S ) i assume that others in the sector will follow the same path,especially since we have a good chance of some more interest rate hikes.

[yusufm]

RDF, GRT, CPL all up today. Is it a momentary bounce or has support been found...?

[yusufm]

Thanks.... Compelling NAV analysis, I'll sure be buying CPL today..... NOT!!!

each to his own lol....

[Ninja]

I am currently holding:
 
CPL: discount to NAV: 4.46%
FFA: premium to NAV: 36.17%
GRT: permium to NAV: 12.71%
RDF: premium to NAV: 2.18%
 
NB: GRT and FFA are to release their results this month so we can expect the premiums to NAVs to decrease substantially.
 
CPL's share price is definitely underperforming when compared to other property counters though....

Thanks.... Compelling NAV analysis, I'll sure be buying CPL today..... NOT!!!

[yusufm]

I am currently holding:

 

CPL: discount to NAV: 4.46%

FFA: premium to NAV: 36.17%

GRT: permium to NAV: 12.71%

RDF: premium to NAV: 2.18%

 

NB: GRT and FFA are to release their results this month so we can expect the premiums to NAVs to decrease substantially.

 

CPL's share price is definitely underperforming when compared to other property counters though....

[Moonraker]

What's your thoughts on Zeder; also still one to hold for the longer term? What should be the impact short term? (Bought @ 420)

 

Don't know much about ZED. Seems good enough for Sanlam ..

 

 

Sanlam Investment Management (Proprietary) Limited
(“SIM”), acting as an agent of its clients, has acquired
an interest in the ordinary shares of the Company such
that the total interest held by SIM now amounts to 5.02%
of the total issued ordinary share capital of the Company.

Stellenbosch
3 February 2014

[BBW]

Have large exposure, but holding because of the income. On average expect to see distribution increases of around 7% p.a. with little or no capital gain for 2014. 

The PSG folks seem to have compiled the price/book values at an earlier date than the date of the article. Profile Data shows different Price/NAV values. 

Eg.to list a few local ones..

 

GRT:  DY=6.79% P/NAV=1.13

FPT:  DY=6.83%  P/NAV=1.03

SAC:  DY=8.45%  P/NAV=1.02

SYC:  DY=8.10%  P/NAV=0.79

RDF:  DY=7.76%  P/NAV=1.02

RES:  DY=5.19%  P/NAV=1.25

AWA/B: DY=9.09% P/NAV=1.09

CPL: DY=7.80% P/NAV=0.94

 

I have bought mine a long time ago (eg. GRT @ +-R6.00) so the yields I am getting are sky high on the purchase prices.

For new investors, go for the non local ones like RPL, NEPI, ITU. Lower initial DY but better prospects going forward plus

Rand hedges.

For long term investors (not traders) why worry ?

What's your thoughts on Zeder; also still one to hold for the longer term? What should be the impact short term? (Bought @ 420)

[Moonraker]

Have large exposure, but holding because of the income. On average expect to see distribution increases of around 7% p.a. with little or no capital gain for 2014. 

The PSG folks seem to have compiled the price/book values at an earlier date than the date of the article. Profile Data shows different Price/NAV values. 

Eg.to list a few local ones..

 

GRT:  DY=6.79% P/NAV=1.13

FPT:  DY=6.83%  P/NAV=1.03

SAC:  DY=8.45%  P/NAV=1.02

SYC:  DY=8.10%  P/NAV=0.79

RDF:  DY=7.76%  P/NAV=1.02

RES:  DY=5.19%  P/NAV=1.25

AWA/B: DY=9.09% P/NAV=1.09

CPL: DY=7.80% P/NAV=0.94

 

I have bought mine a long time ago (eg. GRT @ +-R6.00) so the yields I am getting are sky high on the purchase prices.

For new investors, go for the non local ones like RPL, NEPI, ITU. Lower initial DY but better prospects going forward plus

Rand hedges.

For long term investors (not traders) why worry ?

Edited by Moonraker, 03 February 2014 - 02:38 PM.

[Goliath]

Arrowhead on a 9% forward D/Y and pretty much matching NAV ... looks to be on the cheap side. People shuffling portfolios away from Property at the moment.. adding as the prices drop. Arrowhead has 90% of its loans at fixed rates which is a HUGE positive.

 

That big positive and I am currently quite happy to hold, will try and top up when can. Added some CPL as well..

[Goliath]

If you look at these property counters most of them are currently trading at a premium.  As an investor you want to ideally buy them at a discount.  8% is not bad, but its not guaranteed. If you look at Finbond, they give you 10% guaranteed for a certain period.  imo... better returns available elsewhere

 

Thanks Hendrik, true words! I'll stick to my property, will hopefully sell another kidney to top them up if it does crashes!

[HendrikB]

Interesting read on Moneyweb today:

 

http://www.moneyweb....erty-exposure-2

 

Sure property won't give you 30% or more return per year, but currently if you take Arrowhead B for instance, with current share price of R6,25 and dividends around 53c for the past year, you get roughly around 8% return on your investment just in dividends excl capital appreciation(which currently not gonna happen as the market runs) which still in my books not bad, or am I missing something here?

 

Edit: when others are fearful, be greedy.. (hmm, who said that first here on sharenet, can't remember..)

 

If you look at these property counters most of them are currently trading at a premium.  As an investor you want to ideally buy them at a discount.  8% is not bad, but its not guaranteed. If you look at Finbond, they give you 10% guaranteed for a certain period.  imo... better returns available elsewhere

[Dust]

Arrowhead on a 9% forward D/Y and pretty much matching NAV ... looks to be on the cheap side. People shuffling portfolios away from Property at the moment.. adding as the prices drop. Arrowhead has 90% of its loans at fixed rates which is a HUGE positive.

Edited by Dust, 03 February 2014 - 10:03 AM.