Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Shares to benefit from tourism increase

Weak Rand More Flights More tourists More local spending SUI TSH COM

  • Please log in to reply
27 replies to this topic

#1 brendonfiddes

brendonfiddes

    Member

  • Senior Member
  • PipPip
  • 153 posts

Posted 29 April 2014 - 04:15 PM

Those interested in Comair might wanna read http://www.relativevaluation.co.za


  • 0

#2 HendrikB

HendrikB

    Advanced Member

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 427 posts
  • LocationSouth East Asia

Posted 11 February 2014 - 03:58 PM

Not a good statement out from SUI today. HEPS down 18%-22% yoy.

 

COM has been going very well in the last 3 months! Up circa 30%.

 

I've flown 6 return commercial flights between LHR-CPT in the last 2 months. The seat factors have been ridiculous. Not a space for a mouse. The A380 is starting the JHB sector this week. More people to SA. The forwarding bookings to both JHB and CPT is sky high. (excuse the pun)

 

 

If anybody is starting a business that will directly benefit from the tourism increase to SA get in touch with me, especially if your in Cape Town.

 

 

The Sun Int update is not good news. Panic time for me because I'm holding Tsogo shares and I'm fearing a similar update.  


  • 0

#3 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 11 February 2014 - 03:02 PM

Not a good statement out from SUI today. HEPS down 18%-22% yoy.

 

COM has been going very well in the last 3 months! Up circa 30%.

 

I've flown 6 return commercial flights between LHR-CPT in the last 2 months. The seat factors have been ridiculous. Not a space for a mouse. The A380 is starting the JHB sector this week. More people to SA. The forwarding bookings to both JHB and CPT is sky high. (excuse the pun)

 

 

If anybody is starting a business that will directly benefit from the tourism increase to SA get in touch with me, especially if your in Cape Town.

 

f

 


  • 0

#4 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 30 January 2014 - 01:29 PM

It's alcohol, sigarettes and gambling that just seem to do well even though the logic says otherwise. I agree with you there. But definitely alcohol and sigarettes more so, gambling shows a more direct correlation to the state of the economy than the other two.

 

The move by SUI is a great one I think. Everyone is restructuring. But cutting about a quarter of your SA workforce is a VERY big 'restructure'. They have to be outsourcing some of the basic operations and in the long run I think that will stand them in good stead.

However, I'm not sold on neither SUI nor TSH. Was worth a look and they're probably good LT investments still but there are better places for my money.

 


  • 0

#5 Saints

Saints

    Little Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 550 posts
  • LocationSandton

Posted 30 January 2014 - 08:57 AM

Flexbender what you say makes absolute sense but people are irrational and in these times both alcohol sales and gambling actually do quite well. It gives them a sense of hope unfortunately.

 

Interesting move from Sun International to restructure and cut jobs when the foreigners are potentially lining up on our shores.


  • 0

#6 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 29 January 2014 - 03:32 PM

http://www.bdlive.co...013-index-shows

 

Alternative view expressed here, especially this:

 

"... However, the accommodation sector has a negative outlook for 2014. For the sixth consecutive quarter, the input costs remained the most cited negative contributing factor for this sector. The cost of labour is also a major concern, with 24% of respondents seeing it as an impediment to business performance."

 

Good performance in 2013, but negative outlook for 2014, specifically in accommodation. Interresting...

 

 

There's another issue that bothers me with TSH and SUI. A very large part of their business comes from the gambling industry, specifically casinos. With the current declining economic conditions in SA, the guy on the street is the one that will eventually feel the pinch with increased interest rates, fuel, food, inflation, etc. Surely that'll not be good for the gambling industry!

 


  • 0

#7 Newbie-Wan Kenobi

Newbie-Wan Kenobi

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 4 posts

Posted 29 January 2014 - 03:19 PM

http://www.cnbcafric...odes/hot-stoxx/

 


  • 0

#8 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 29 January 2014 - 01:55 PM

Yes I saw that HotStoxx were covering them. Didn't manage to catch it though.

What was the verdict?

 

TSH back down again...

 

COM moving very nicely!

 


  • 0

#9 BBW

BBW

    Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 931 posts
  • LocationHelderberg

Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:47 AM

a large volume of TSH shares traded hands in over 200 deals with a 2.37% increase in the share price. Could be something coming here?

All the guys watching Hot Stox!?

 

Another sector I think will benefit is the Medical sector. My sister-in-law in the US just asked us to get quotes from Mediclinic for the birth of their child, so that started me thinking...


  • 0

Exi, impie, exi, scelerae, exi cum omnia fallacia tua


#10 Saints

Saints

    Little Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 550 posts
  • LocationSandton

Posted 29 January 2014 - 09:27 AM

a large volume of TSH shares traded hands in over 200 deals with a 2.37% increase in the share price. Could be something coming here?


  • 0

#11 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 24 January 2014 - 05:57 PM

hahaha

It is indeed!

idiot moment... sorry.

 

Well at least it shows we've got the right companies in mind that'll benefit.

 

 


  • 0

#12 Bushwakka

Bushwakka

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 22 posts

Posted 24 January 2014 - 04:43 PM

The article seems to be for 2012/13?


  • 0

#13 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 24 January 2014 - 04:14 PM

The Protea - Marriot deal is an excellent sign of confidence in SA I think! At least in the tourism industry that is. Although the few hotels that Protea add to Marriot's portfolio of hotels is only a minor addition to them, it shows that the American giant in the tourism industry also sees the period of prosperous times lying ahead for SA tourism. A great booster to the original argument made here...

 

CityLodge I don't like. It's definitely more business traveler orientated and will only benefit massively if the economy recovers, not tourism.

 

Have a look at this article in the Financial Mail this week. Almost seems like they've been reading this thread. Makes reference to nearly all the companies we mentioned here. A few additional interresting ones too. (GDN...)

 

http://www.financial...omebacks-on-jse

 

 

My front runners at the moment:

COM - already owned

SPU

TSH

GDN - speculative

 

 

Have a good weekend guys.

 


  • 0

#14 Saints

Saints

    Little Master

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 550 posts
  • LocationSandton

Posted 24 January 2014 - 08:22 AM

TSH had a good run last year and will most likely show similar this year however the Protea - Marriot deal is almost certainly going to present some competition to the locals. Here are a few points:

- overseas people like to stay in hotels they know - Marriot

- Loyalty programmes - Marriot

- Protea are still well placed to cater for the local business traveller

 

I hold a few TSH shares from the Goldreef days and will continue to hold for long term growth


  • 0

#15 HendrikB

HendrikB

    Advanced Member

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 427 posts
  • LocationSouth East Asia

Posted 23 January 2014 - 03:36 PM

HendrikB, saw you added TSH to your LT portfolio. Any reason you picked it above SUI?

I've been weighing them up against each other this week and can't make my mind up.

 

They're growing faster and churning out more cash. Have to go with them I suppose. CityLodge is another one I'm looking at.


  • 0

#16 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 23 January 2014 - 03:02 PM

HendrikB, saw you added TSH to your LT portfolio. Any reason you picked it above SUI?

I've been weighing them up against each other this week and can't make my mind up.

 


  • 0

#17 Geelstert

Geelstert

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 14 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 21 January 2014 - 05:38 PM

I would have thought Spur might also do well with the increase of both foreign and domestic tourists - I always eat out a lot more when on holiday .

I thought the same thing yesterday. They might have a very good year, making more profit due to tourists, and also after their takeover of Hussar Grill Steakhouse last year (although Hussar Grill is not located at airports). The effective date of the transaction was the 1st of January 2014 (according to their SENS). Might be a promising stock


  • 0

"Price is what you pay. Value is what you get" - Warren Buffett


#18 MrDividend

MrDividend

    Advanced Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPipPip
  • 213 posts
  • LocationCape Town

Posted 21 January 2014 - 04:39 PM

I would have thought Spur might also do well with the increase of both foreign and domestic tourists - I always eat out a lot more when on holiday .


  • 0

#19 gamma

gamma

    Sage

  • Senior Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 1,468 posts
  • LocationEverywhere

Posted 20 January 2014 - 11:29 PM

Bidvest popped into my mind only because I was posting about Adcock and then remembered seeing their logos all over the airports.
  • 0
Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

#20 flexbender

flexbender

    Member

  • Junior Member
  • PipPip
  • 150 posts

Posted 20 January 2014 - 05:24 PM

Yes exactly! It's in the secondary industries, the ones that will benefit indirectly, where I think the most opportunity lies. The market could potentially not have priced all the benefit in yet and indirect service companies is where one should be looking.

 

Although I do like BVT, their directly benefiting divisions are really small. About only 1% of their revenue comes from airlines and tourism activities. It's actually the expansion into Europe and Asia that's causing most of the share price growth when one considers the weaking rand.

gamma, any particular reason you specifically refer to them?

 

 

Then there's CUL.

Stefan, as you mentioned, I agree 100% that this is a company that will benefit massively from tourism growth. Just look at what's happened to the share price recently!

The problem is though with this one is the high PE and extremely low volumes. It's run by about 50% in the last month alone! Clearly the market also sees the potential here. If it pulls back a bit I'll be a buyer but only if I can get a decent chunk at around the 230 mark.

 

 

I don't know much about the SA film industry but as far as I'm concerned it's a no ago.

 

 

Golf coarses on the other hand I definitely can see benefitting. Although there are loads of them already, the rate at which succesful developments are popping up is astounding. Perhaps the right question to ask is not who owns the courses but rather these golf resorts that offer accommodation packages. Foreigners love booking those all inclusive deals. There's the real money. Who owns a big golf estate/resort portfolio?

Just popping into my mind now... doesn't Invicta (IVT) have a hand in the manufacturing of golf car parts. That's a indirect-indirect beneficiary, sort off. I already own some IVT. Looking to add more when we have decent pull back.

 

 

Here's a few more I've thought of:

Baggage handling (Menzies?)

Inflight catering

Jet fuel

Aircraft charter companies

 

 


  • 0





Also tagged with one or more of these keywords: Weak Rand, More Flights, More tourists, More local spending, SUI, TSH, COM


Sponsored by Sharenet and VPSNine Linux VPS Hosting