83 replies to this topic

[orca]

Now now children. No personal attacks. As you were.

[flexbender]

You have emphasized the obvious negatives of the local industry, but have failed to consider the positives.  For example, a significant piece of the revenue line comes from offshore now, and it will most likely continue to increase going forward.

 

Anyway, I think the consensus is clear on this one for existing shareholders.  HOLD.

No one is punting or calling BUY here, also selling this with the current info at hand would be premature imo.

 

But you don't even hold the stock right.  So are you trying to be helpful or just trolling with your smart ass/I told you so attitude?

 

haha, "trolling" - that's a great term.

Thanks hooligan.

 

 

Anyway,

I disagree that MTA is not a BUY at the moment.

 

See my reasons in previous post.

They are all still applicable.

[flexbender]

Nonsense Flexbender,

 

None of these articles were written last week, the writing has been on the wall for yonks and I merely highlight common knowledge which is all last years news and from the year before.

 

Forget about the share, check the sector out first, it is a great company in a bad sector, same as Kumba, I shall invest in both these companies down the line some time or another, but certainly not in the foreseeable future.

 

Don't knock graph analysis, do your research before you invest, good judgement is a result of experience, experience is a result of bad judgement.

 

August 20,2013, Auto suppliers face lay offs

 

February 25 2014, SA's thriving car industry ambition 'set to crash'

 

17 July, 2014, SA motor industry: a dangerous gamble

 

17 July, 2014, NUMSA's double edged sword

 

As much as I appreciate your attempt to educate, allow me to make a bold assumption here...

 

Judging from your profile graphic, your user name, and the fact that you only joined this forum less than a year ago, I take it that the "experience" you're referring to isn't really something you know much about in a personal capacity.

You basically just think your revelations sound like a smart thing to say.

 

I'll happily admit that I'm also not the experienced Warren Buffett of the forum either.

Although I've been around the investment block for a decade or 2 and will gladly share my views on this forum.

 

Research is easy.

Making clever decisions based on that research is the difficult bit. That's where skill comes in. (you call it "good judgement")

Experience isn't a prerequisite for skill. (It helps though). You can definitely make smart decisions without having years of experience.

 

I will indeed "knock" graph analysis. If your investment horizon is longer than 3 years then technical analysis is useless.

But each to his own.

 

 

And fyi:

I bought MTA about 3 months ago - (sitting nicely in the green)

Reason 1:  I believed the 'green' niche they serve within the automobile industry has a lot of legs.

Reason 2:  I've been researching the company for very long time and I believed they are cheap sitting on a PE just over 10.

Reason 3:  Although the car industry is in trouble, it's a fact everybody already knows, hence the market has already priced this in. And as my friend Mr Buffett would say: "Be greedy when others are fearful..."

 

Good luck to you merlin.

I would appreciate it if you would let us know in the future if you feel the time for MTA is nigh.

 

Best

[Hooligan]

Nonsense Flexbender,

 

None of these articles were written last week, the writing has been on the wall for yonks and I merely highlight common knowledge which is all last years news and from the year before.

 

Forget about the share, check the sector out first, it is a great company in a bad sector, same as Kumba, I shall invest in both these companies down the line some time or another, but certainly not in the foreseeable future.

 

Don't knock graph analysis, do your research before you invest, good judgement is a result of experience, experience is a result of bad judgement.

 

August 20,2013, Auto suppliers face lay offs

 

February 25 2014, SA's thriving car industry ambition 'set to crash'

 

17 July, 2014, SA motor industry: a dangerous gamble

 

17 July, 2014, NUMSA's double edged sword

 

 

You have emphasized the obvious negatives of the local industry, but have failed to consider the positives.  For example, a significant piece of the revenue line comes from offshore now, and it will most likely continue to increase going forward.

 

Anyway, I think the consensus is clear on this one for existing shareholders.  HOLD.

No one is punting or calling BUY here, also selling this with the current info at hand would be premature imo.

 

But you don't even hold the stock right.  So are you trying to be helpful or just trolling with your smart ass/I told you so attitude?

Edited by Hooligan, 31 March 2015 - 12:09 PM.

[M e r l i n]

Nonsense Flexbender,

 

None of these articles were written last week, the writing has been on the wall for yonks and I merely highlight common knowledge which is all last years news and from the year before.

 

Forget about the share, check the sector out first, it is a great company in a bad sector, same as Kumba, I shall invest in both these companies down the line some time or another, but certainly not in the foreseeable future.

 

Don't knock graph analysis, do your research before you invest, good judgement is a result of experience, experience is a result of bad judgement.

 

August 20,2013, Auto suppliers face lay offs

 

February 25 2014, SA's thriving car industry ambition 'set to crash'

 

17 July, 2014, SA motor industry: a dangerous gamble

 

17 July, 2014, NUMSA's double edged sword

 

[flexbender]

Guy's, let's be real, the question is not about Metair, it is about the industry and the 'South African Situation', the industry is in the doldrums because the larger automotive community does not have faith in the reliability of the labour force because of strikes and more strikes, confrontational labour unions who are part of the political tripartite, that is the elephant in the room which people are avoiding speaking of, there is no will to fix the problems nor any remote inclination either, check out the links I have copied in as well various snippets I have copied therefrom.

SA’s thriving car industry ambition ‘set to crash’

February 2014 - Business Day

http://www.bdlive.co...on-set-to-crash

Auto suppliers face lay-offs

http://www.dispatchl...-face-lay-offs/

South African thriving car industry ambition 'set to crash'

http://www.bdlive.co...on-set-to-crash

SA motor industry: A dangerous gamble

http://www.financial...angerous-gamble

Industrial Relations: Numsa's double edged sword

http://www.financial...ble-edged-sword

 

The above can best be summarized by one paragraph by David Furlonger 17 July 2014:

Though there appears to be no question at this stage of disinvestment by any of SA’s seven full-scale vehicle manufacturers — BMW, Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen — there is a sense that they may reconsider the scope of their presence here, BMW and Datsun, Nissan’s reinvented entry-level brand, admit that plans to build new cars in SA were put on hold because of the uncertain labour environment.

 

So if you study the graph of Metair, the time to have sold out and take profits was between September 2013 and March 2014, this was the end of it's up cycle and the writing was on the wall ever since - no matter how good the company is battling in a poor environment which shall certainly not change in the next 3 months.

 

MTA.JPG

 

To come in Mar2015 and say "the right move here was to have sold a year ago because the price is lower now" doesn't really take a genius to figure out Merlin. Hindsight is very easy.

It's like saying: The smart thing would have been to sell Sasol 6 months ago because look how low the oil price is now...

 

In addition, you can't use technical analysis when deciding on whether to hold a share for the long-term. Graphs are only useful for trading. Unless you think you can time the market... which all experienced investors will advise you against.

You can't look at the history. You have to be forward looking - Fundamentals, Growth prospects, SPEL factors. That's how you pick your LT winners.

 

Anyway, I'm in for the long term... and so should everybody else holding MTA.

On a PE of 11 = bargain!

[orca]

Agree 110%. Deadline next year for all new cars in the EU to be fitted with the green start/stop batteries. Sales will soar as the USA and Canada follow suite.

[TheLittleGuy]

Guy's, let's be real, the question is not about Metair, it is about the industry and the 'South African Situation', the industry is in the doldrums because the larger automotive community does not have faith in the reliability of the labour force because of strikes and more strikes, confrontational labour unions who are part of the political tripartite, that is the elephant in the room which people are avoiding speaking of, there is no will to fix the problems nor any remote inclination either, check out the links I have copied in as well various snippets I have copied therefrom.

SA’s thriving car industry ambition ‘set to crash’

February 2014 - Business Day

http://www.bdlive.co...on-set-to-crash

Auto suppliers face lay-offs

http://www.dispatchl...-face-lay-offs/

South African thriving car industry ambition 'set to crash'

http://www.bdlive.co...on-set-to-crash

SA motor industry: A dangerous gamble

http://www.financial...angerous-gamble

Industrial Relations: Numsa's double edged sword

http://www.financial...ble-edged-sword

 

The above can best be summarized by one paragraph by David Furlonger 17 July 2014:

Though there appears to be no question at this stage of disinvestment by any of SA’s seven full-scale vehicle manufacturers — BMW, Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen — there is a sense that they may reconsider the scope of their presence here, BMW and Datsun, Nissan’s reinvented entry-level brand, admit that plans to build new cars in SA were put on hold because of the uncertain labour environment.

 

So if you study the graph of Metair, the time to have sold out and take profits was between September 2013 and March 2014, this was the end of it's up cycle and the writing was on the wall ever since - no matter how good the company is battling in a poor environment which shall certainly not change in the next 3 months.

 

MTA.JPG

The negatives surrounding  SA Vehicle manufacturing are no secret. MTA is transforming itself into a global player with the increasing ability of offer batteries across the global OEM production network. More and more OEMs are certifying them to supply batteries on a broader geographic basis and inviting them to be partners as they open new production facilities around the world.

 

This dynamic essentially derisks MTA's exposure to individual mkts (SA) and also the rand. MTA currently produce 7.5mln batteries a year they are tgting 50mln and having production capability on 5 continents within the 5 yrs.

 

Currently trading at <11x Forward EPS, MTA is a great growth story trading at a very reasonable valuation. MTA is expose to headline risk, fundamentally it is a great company, run by an impressive management team and support by global emission regulation.. A excellent long term hold imo....

[M e r l i n]

Guy's, let's be real, the question is not about Metair, it is about the industry and the 'South African Situation', the industry is in the doldrums because the larger automotive community does not have faith in the reliability of the labour force because of strikes and more strikes, confrontational labour unions who are part of the political tripartite, that is the elephant in the room which people are avoiding speaking of, there is no will to fix the problems nor any remote inclination either, check out the links I have copied in as well various snippets I have copied therefrom.

SA’s thriving car industry ambition ‘set to crash’

February 2014 - Business Day

http://www.bdlive.co...on-set-to-crash

Auto suppliers face lay-offs

http://www.dispatchl...-face-lay-offs/

South African thriving car industry ambition 'set to crash'

http://www.bdlive.co...on-set-to-crash

SA motor industry: A dangerous gamble

http://www.financial...angerous-gamble

Industrial Relations: Numsa's double edged sword

http://www.financial...ble-edged-sword

 

The above can best be summarized by one paragraph by David Furlonger 17 July 2014:

Though there appears to be no question at this stage of disinvestment by any of SA’s seven full-scale vehicle manufacturers — BMW, Ford, General Motors, Mercedes-Benz, Nissan, Toyota and Volkswagen — there is a sense that they may reconsider the scope of their presence here, BMW and Datsun, Nissan’s reinvented entry-level brand, admit that plans to build new cars in SA were put on hold because of the uncertain labour environment.

 

So if you study the graph of Metair, the time to have sold out and take profits was between September 2013 and March 2014, this was the end of it's up cycle and the writing was on the wall ever since - no matter how good the company is battling in a poor environment which shall certainly not change in the next 3 months.

 

 

[orca]

Nice article in the Business Day paper today.

 

I'm holding for another 3 months - will take it from there.

I have had MTA for 3 years and will hold on.

 

http://www.bdlive.co...expansion-drive

[Hooligan]

Agreed Hooligan

This one has really disappointed me.

I expected some heavy action today after the results. Don't know if I wanna flog this horse any longer

Nice article in the Business Day paper today.

 

I'm holding for another 3 months - will take it from there.

[Queen B]

Agreed Hooligan

This one has really disappointed me.

I expected some heavy action today after the results. Don't know if I wanna flog this horse any longer

[Hooligan]

Results =

 

Share Performance =     

[Queen B]

"Excellent results in a challenging economic environment
The group produced an excellent set of results in another challenging operating year. Revenue grew 39% to R7.3 billion and EBITDA rose to
R1.2 billion from R729 million (excluding transaction costs) in 2013, with operating profit margins increasing by 2.9% to 11.4%. Headline earnings
rose to R593 million and HEPS increased 38% to 303 cents per share"

[Queen B]

Anyone had a chance to read the Mutlu results yet? Seems the market isn't reacting positively. Share price down slightly today

 

PUBLICATION OF MUTLU AKU RESULTS

Shareholders of Metair (“Shareholders”) are advised that Mutlu Aku, Metair's Turkish subsidiary, is
still listed on the Borsa Istanbul and published its results for the year ended ended 31 December
2014, last night.

Shareholders are referred to the Capital Markets Board of Turkey’s disclosure platform at
http://www.kap.gov.tr/en/home.aspx where the aforementioned publication will be made available.
Shareholders are, however, advised to review these stand-alone Mutlu Aku results with caution as it
does not include the results from other entities within the Mutlu group, nor does it reflect Metair’s
consolidation and IFRS 3 adjustments related to the Mutlu group acquisition and earnings.
 

[orca]

It will. I don't get it that they have not made better returns as they manufacture solar panels, UPS systems etc during the power crises.

[Hooligan]

Good stuff - I need to see this thing running to 50 soon before you will get a smiley face out of me.

Now some nice media coverage or a promotional article would be helpful...

[Queen B]

Metair is in the process of finalising their results for the year ended 31 December 2014 (“Results”)
and shareholders are accordingly advised that the Company expects to report:

    -   Headline earnings per share to be between 32.42% and 39.27% higher (between 290 cents
        and 305 cents per share) than the 219 cents per share for the previous corresponding period;
        and
    -   Earnings per share to be between 28.82% and 35.37% higher (between 295 cents and 310
        cents per share) compared to the 229 cents per share for the previous corresponding period.

 

[Mr.Balls]

And we have lift off!

 

HEPS up 32% - 39%

[Hooligan]

Historically it comes out from 06 March to 25 March.

She is trading below all her indicators and seems to be shedding off the sellers now. Perhaps a bottom here?? 

 

If the results are bad then I will dump her as well but I doubt it as Mutlu has better results in winter due to high battery sales. This winter has been rather mild in Europe.

Pity as I really thought MTA was my 10 bagger for long term.

 

Thanks for the input - I will keep an eye open.

Same, and I still have faith in the stock.  Yet I'd rather move the cash into something that can yield some gains over the short term. My money needs to work.

Edited by Hooligan, 17 February 2015 - 06:34 PM.