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Pinnacle Holdings


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#101 Goliath

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Posted 11 August 2014 - 11:07 AM

At this rate the next set of earnings will be 30 to 50% lower at 100 c per share. Value for th stock is most probably closer to 700c I would guess. The only question now has management blown all the money allocated for the annual dividend on their feeble attempt to support the stock by the buying back programme. In itself this was extemely poor allocation of capital by the board

 

This one going down as well, management confidence shot so I wouldn't be surprised if it went the same way as African Bank, except no bailout but perhaps a buyout then ;)


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#102 SoleTrader

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Posted 09 August 2014 - 02:01 PM

At this rate the next set of earnings will be 30 to 50% lower at 100 c per share. Value for th stock is most probably closer to 700c I would guess. The only question now has management blown all the money allocated for the annual dividend on their feeble attempt to support the stock by the buying back programme. In itself this was extemely poor allocation of capital by the board
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#103 Shortboy

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Posted 08 August 2014 - 06:12 PM

Gotta go with you on this. PNC is tainted whatever the outcome is. If I was a large organisation I wouldn't want to be seen dealing with another organisation whose background isn't 100% clean. @ +- R11 it still looks very expensive to me. 

Looking at the last '13 financials in a bit more detail I would place an absolute maximum value on this stock at R4.63. Maybe a short opportunity for the gamblers out there. Maybe another ABIL opportunity, except you make your money now out of suckers prepared to buy at high prices now instead of rock bottom which is still a long way off!!


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#104 SoleTrader

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Posted 08 August 2014 - 05:29 PM

The stock needs to trade at a discount to NAV given the insider trading and corruption allegations, which are looking more real by the day. I just with wonder if the HAWKS are not digging deeper and deeper and uncovering the cockroach nest that was mentioned in earlier posts

Edited by SoleTrader, 08 August 2014 - 05:33 PM.

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#105 SoleTrader

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Posted 08 August 2014 - 05:10 PM

This one is coming home to roost. The trading statement is shocking. Clearly they have written no business since the arrest of Tshivase. Which makes me think that corporate SA is blacklisting them. Am tempted to put a small toe into the water at the 850c level.
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#106 yusufm

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Posted 08 August 2014 - 04:23 PM

Down quite a bit, but it seems a bit overdone ... tempted to jump in

 Also was looking at it. Still trading at a premium to NAV but using the estimates on the trading statement out today, the PE doesn't look too shabby....

 

Will see where it closes and then decide


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#107 Shi

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Posted 08 August 2014 - 04:18 PM

Down quite a bit, but it seems a bit overdone ... tempted to jump in


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#108 SoleTrader

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Posted 02 July 2014 - 04:12 PM

Case postponed once again, at the request of the prosecution to consider representations made by Mr Tshivhase.

 

Suddenly the innocence of Tshivhase is not so clear-cut as made out in earlier communications made by Pinnacle.  The man is now playing for time, this case is going to drag on for a long time I recon.


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#109 SoleTrader

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Posted 01 July 2014 - 10:09 AM

I see PNC announced with great fanfare a repurchase of their own stock. 

 

1. Management dumped their own shares prior to announcing the arrest of one of their directors to the market.  When they stated that they didn't know what the arrest was for, and delayed announcing the arrest to the market by almost 3 weeks, one can assume that they were lying, since the arresting officer had to make the reasons for arrest known.  So own wealth protection was important for these guys

 

2. Now they are using shareholder funds to prop up their shareprice! If it wasn't for their efforts in stabilising the price, surely the stock would be at lower levels.  Except for the small amount of stock bought by the fourie trio, the rest of the management has shown no faith in commiting own capital into the business. 

 

Anycase, tomorrow will be telling when Tshivhase appears in court, hopefully a whole nest of cockroaches gets opened


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#110 gamma

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Posted 24 June 2014 - 05:02 PM

Interesting valuation @brendonfiddes.  The reality is however that there is no way of quantifying the damage done until the next set of results.  Assuming the accused is found guilty, how will corporate South Africa react to dealing with a corrupted company? If he is found guilty, surely he needed approval from one of his fellow board members for the approval of bribe monies?  And in that case this whole companies existence will be questioned? Second question, why has the market reacted to negatively to a measly R5m alledged bribe? Because maybe this dude has been bribing for a while, and a whole nest of cockroaches will be uncovered,,,,

 

Spot on. If you trade this you might as well bet red or black on your local roulette table. Unless you have insider info, no one knows what may happen. 

Downside risks are too great in my opinion..at the moment


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#111 SoleTrader

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Posted 24 June 2014 - 09:48 AM

Interesting valuation @brendonfiddes.  The reality is however that there is no way of quantifying the damage done until the next set of results.  Assuming the accused is found guilty, how will corporate South Africa react to dealing with a corrupted company? If he is found guilty, surely he needed approval from one of his fellow board members for the approval of bribe monies?  And in that case this whole companies existence will be questioned? Second question, why has the market reacted to negatively to a measly R5m alledged bribe? Because maybe this dude has been bribing for a while, and a whole nest of cockroaches will be uncovered,,,,


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#112 brendonfiddes

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Posted 17 June 2014 - 07:30 PM

Once the downward trend turns,this could be one for the long term. Has become very undervalued - http://www.relativev....co.za/pnc.html


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#113 SoleTrader

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Posted 13 June 2014 - 09:08 AM

I am finding the price movement in the stock interesting, although nothing has changed! Up to 1220c, purely on the 36one hedge fund manager punting the share on BDTV? Also interesting that the manager said that their corporate work will not be impacted by a guilty verdict? I thought it is rather premature to speculate how a guilty verdict (and I am assuming that the accused is will not be found innocent) will impact their corporate work. 

 

So once again fellow investors, do we enter the share now, or do we wait for the fallout after the courtcase which most probably will drag on for a couple of months and reveal who knows what?


Edited by SoleTrader, 13 June 2014 - 09:17 AM.

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#114 SoleTrader

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 11:41 AM

On the side, isn't it funny when companies announce the building of brand new corporate headquarters that their shares implode!


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#115 SoleTrader

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Posted 08 June 2014 - 11:30 AM

@Merlin - yes, a very big break

 

The NAV of the counter is around 750c based on the December interims, and, assuming they do flat earnings for the year, NAV should be around 850c for the 2014 financial year.  Maybe a discount to NAV will be a decent entry point into the share, giving a margin of safety.  A clean, untarnished company like Mustek is trading at 700c with a NAV of 785c, at a decent discount to its book value.

 

The concern for PNC is not the 2014 results (remember we were already 9 months into the FY when the news broke), but the 2015 results.  Growth for 2015 was very dependant on a large acquisition (DCT), which is not going to happen.  Given the state of the economy, the cloud over the company, the potential cancellation of all government tenders and some corporate tenders if the accused is found guilty, and the high level of debt in the company, it is still very overvalued at 1095c.  I think soon we will see their stake in DCT up for sale.  Any major slowdown in their turnover is going to put their ability to service their corporate bond debt at stake, so I assume they will cut their 2014 dividend to zero.

 

Management must be panicking with their  price plummeting (bankers and issuers of their corporate debt must be getting nervous as well), so I am sure the spin doctoring will start soon.

 

Gladly, I don't own the shares.


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#116 M e r l i n

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 07:17 PM

What is significant is that Pinnacle closed below its 12 month low of 1100 today, it shall probably drop further to test another support level.
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#117 SoleTrader

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Posted 06 June 2014 - 01:55 PM

Pinnacle below 1100c, are the cockroaches coming out of hiding??

 

What is sad, is the silence of the company on the matter.  But this is clearly a case of where there's smoke, there's fire


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#118 delta66

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:43 PM

ST..still speculation and open to personal interpretation but if you have substantial holdings in them and don't want to sell off, at very least consider a hedged position..in case price heads south rapidly


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#119 SoleTrader

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:38 PM

If this is the truth, the share is a goner. 

 


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#120 delta66

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Posted 04 June 2014 - 12:33 PM

door is only beginning to open with this investigation. they going to be in the weeds very soon.  spin doctor time.


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