10 replies to this topic

[Jonny]

I never produce my own ideas, so I will just reference someone else's idea 

 

http://www.moneyweb....g-idea-for-2015

 

From above moneyweb link: 

 

Long Naspers

Short Tencent 

[Moonraker]

Moonraker,

 

let us do some analysis in hindsight:

• Capital and Counties would have been a good bet, but I did better on Rockcastle in same time frame.
• BTI would have been a disaster, it's value is considerably less than in July.
• SAB ditto
• CFR ditto
• SHF decreased and only recently recovered to a marginal gain
• NPN ditto but in a 'sell' and falling fast

 

So I stand by my comment that I would not have touched one of those stocks, I have subsequently made 20% on ROC and NEPI, I agree with you on APN and MDC however.

 

I have NEP as well as RES. BTI was bought by me in 2008 @ 226 so am not complaining, especially with the good dividends. RES (same guys that gave birth to NEP) has actually outperformed NEP. It also has an ROC holding. I think, however that NEP will be the winner next year.

Will be interesting next year, given some negative factors like electricity constraints affecting malls, interest rate increases especially if we get downgraded by the ratings agencies etc.

 

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[M e r l i n]

Moonraker,

 

let us do some analysis in hindsight:

• Capital and Counties would have been a good bet, but I did better on Rockcastle in same time frame.
• BTI would have been a disaster, it's value is considerably less than in July.
• SAB ditto
• CFR ditto
• SHF decreased and only recently recovered to a marginal gain
• NPN ditto but in a 'sell' and falling fast

 

So I stand by my comment that I would not have touched one of those stocks, I have subsequently made 20% on ROC and NEPI, I agree with you on APN and MDC however.

 

Those of flexbender are precisely the stocks you want to own if you think that the long term trend is for an ever weakening Rand. That seems rather likely from a historic point of view, does it not ? The P/E ratios of SAB or BTI are of course much lower on the LSE than here, thanks to the prices being pushed up due to Rand weakness.

On the other hand, if you think the Rand will show strength over time, then maybe have a look elsewhere.

I like flexbender's selection and would add MDC and APN to that. 

[Moonraker]

The beauty of the market is people having such diverse views on things, almost without exception I would not touch one of these stocks right now, most of them are in sell mode and for starters I am divesting my portfolio of a substantial holding of Steinhoff on Monday morning having taken profits and bailed on some of the others some months ago.

It is a situation similar to the drawing of a woman whom some see as a young girl and others see an old lady, you cannot make money running with the market and doing the same as everyone else, it is when you are selling and others are buying that fortunes can be made, when Wall Street crashed in 1929 neither Rothschild or Rockefeller owned a single share, they had chased the market up and sold off everything to the sheep that followed, naturally over the years after they bought their scrip back, slowly and at seriously discounted fire sale prices and having a huge cash surplus.

 

Those of flexbender are precisely the stocks you want to own if you think that the long term trend is for an ever weakening Rand. That seems rather likely from a historic point of view, does it not ? The P/E ratios of SAB or BTI are of course much lower on the LSE than here, thanks to the prices being pushed up due to Rand weakness.

On the other hand, if you think the Rand will show strength over time, then maybe have a look elsewhere.

I like flexbender's selection and would add MDC and APN to that. 

[M e r l i n]

The beauty of the market is people having such diverse views on things, almost without exception I would not touch one of these stocks right now, most of them are in sell mode and for starters I am divesting my portfolio of a substantial holding of Steinhoff on Monday morning having taken profits and bailed on some of the others some months ago.

It is a situation similar to the drawing of a woman whom some see as a young girl and others see an old lady, you cannot make money running with the market and doing the same as everyone else, it is when you are selling and others are buying that fortunes can be made, when Wall Street crashed in 1929 neither Rothschild or Rockefeller owned a single share, they had chased the market up and sold off everything to the sheep that followed, naturally over the years after they bought their scrip back, slowly and at seriously discounted fire sale prices and having a huge cash surplus.

 

What your looking for here are quality defensive stocks. Have a search on the forum, I believe there's been a discussion or 2 on this before.

I'd go for your large caps with good international exposure.

CCO

BTI

SAB

CFR

SHF

NPN

Those are the few that I own. There are many others.

 

Shares you'd want to short are your small cap industrials. There are loads, take your pick.

BUT, history will show you that those shorting the market have been wrong way more than they've been right......

[flexbender]

With the JSE peaking and economic conditions in SA looking bleak, which top 5 stocks would be the best to buy and which worst 5 stocks would be the best to short?

 

What your looking for here are quality defensive stocks. Have a search on the forum, I believe there's been a discussion or 2 on this before.

I'd go for your large caps with good international exposure.

CCO

BTI

SAB

CFR

SHF

NPN

Those are the few that I own. There are many others.

 

Shares you'd want to short are your small cap industrials. There are loads, take your pick.

BUT, history will show you that those shorting the market have been wrong way more than they've been right......

[flexbender]

For me by far the worst stock to short was naspers now around R1300... But when she cracks, 1st stop would be R1000 followed by R 700

 

A statement like this carries no weight if you don't back it up with some reasoning - which I would love to hear.

[Mr.Balls]

For me by far the worst stock to short was naspers now around R1300... But when she cracks, 1st stop would be R1000 followed by R 700

Or she runs...next stop R1,700 and then R 2,000

[Ninja]

For me by far the worst stock to short was naspers now around R1300... But when she cracks, 1st stop would be R1000 followed by R 700

[soutie]

With the JSE peaking and economic conditions in SA looking bleak, which top 5 stocks would be the best to buy and which worst 5 stocks would be the best to short?

What's your thoughts...? Seems like a good place to start...

[Derivative]

With the JSE peaking and economic conditions in SA looking bleak, which top 5 stocks would be the best to buy and which worst 5 stocks would be the best to short?