86 replies to this topic

[Fuxx]

Merlin, you are still seeing value, right? Sufficient value at least to hold?

[M e r l i n]

22.2m today and 49.6m bought yesterday of ROC, so others are certainly seeing value, if you don't it is time to sell.

 

Thankfully ROC retraced some gains this week (and FFB/ RES for that matter)!

 

Almost impossible to find value at this point though!

[Fuxx]

Thankfully ROC retraced some gains this week (and FFB/ RES for that matter)!

 

Almost impossible to find value at this point though!

 

[M e r l i n]

http://www.rockcastl...ions-Financials

 

More than half profits generated from USA investments

 

 

 

Sens out for ROC

Edited by M e r l i n, 12 May 2015 - 11:18 PM.

[stayob]

Sens out for ROC

[M e r l i n]

Moonraker as you said NEP and other off shore REITS have performed exceptionally which is why I switched from RPL, they similarly produced exceptional performance a couple of years back and I took profits happily, but since then their performance has been pedestrian in comparison to their sector peers, examine the share graph and you shall see what I mean.

 

I made good money on RPL but happy I switched horses.

 

 RPL.JPG   41.62KB   26 downloads

[Moonraker]

http://www.bdlive.co...r-after-33-rise

 

 

Nondividend payers such as developers Attacq and Pivotal, offshore counters Rockcastle and Nepi and retail-dominated Fortress B, Resilient and Hyprop have performed exceptionally.

 

However, there are a number of stocks that have delivered a more pedestrian performance so there is still long-term value in the sector. "Some of the more vanilla offerings such as Growthpoint Properties are looking far less expensive,’’ he said.

 

Investec Asset Management portfolio manager Neil Stuart-Findlay said inflation-beating returns remain achievable over the medium term given the sector’s healthy distribution growth outlook. Year to date, property firms have declared growth in dividend payouts in excess of 9% on average despite a tough operating environment.

 

He cautioned investors to moderate return expectations.

 

Must make a distinction between local only and offshore REITS. Obviously those with a primary listing offshore eg. NEPI  have better prospects. For one the R. will weaken further (as it has done over the past 40 years), and then bond yields in Europe are still very very low, despite the recent little uptick. I would also not write off RPL (written off by Merlin), good yield of near 6% in £ and good 'portfolio' of properties. Price trending up.

[M e r l i n]

The recent sell off in the property sector is the switch to bonds due to rising yields, others jumped in a bought into the weakness resulting in ROC rising 2.65% at 1pm today to 31.80

 

 

[M e r l i n]

Rebosis is trading @ 3.15 times NAV (4.13) = 13.00 which is a local stock and does not benefit from depreciation of Rand, so unclear what the big deal is about ROC being double NAV with the long term positive of revenue coming in from a basket of solid currencies.

 

Interestingly, NEPI is also trading at 100%+ Premium to NAV, same as ROC...

[Fuxx]

Interestingly, NEPI is also trading at 100%+ Premium to NAV, same as ROC...

[M e r l i n]

Nope, only like the international flavour stocks in their stable.

 

Well then I hope both will do well !

 

Would be great if ROC has stopped its fall (paniced selling perhaps?) and start somewhat of a recovery...

 

Do you hold Resilient by any chance?

[Fuxx]

Well then I hope both will do well !

 

Would be great if ROC has stopped its fall (paniced selling perhaps?) and start somewhat of a recovery...

 

Do you hold Resilient by any chance?

[M e r l i n]

You are welcome Fuxx,

Nope not a Lodestone investor but not for any particular reason, I recently participated in the IPO of Stenprop and was only successful in a third of what I applied for, I then used the remaining two thirds to buy on the JSE at market, so all my funds are fully invested in the international property market.

 

Thanks Merlin.

Today seemed like the volumes have come down at least...

A 20% drop in share price in 1 week is of course still heavy, even for a long term investor! I decided to stay in as well, and I think it's the right decision assuming the fall has dropped.

I stayed in as well at the end of the day because not a single director sold their shares - and they know more than me!

I guess different investors use a different valuation method...

 

Did you also invest in Lodestone? That might become the next ROC/ NEP...

[Fuxx]

Thanks Merlin.

Today seemed like the volumes have come down at least...

A 20% drop in share price in 1 week is of course still heavy, even for a long term investor! I decided to stay in as well, and I think it's the right decision assuming the fall has dropped.

I stayed in as well at the end of the day because not a single director sold their shares - and they know more than me!

I guess different investors use a different valuation method...

 

Did you also invest in Lodestone? That might become the next ROC/ NEP...

[M e r l i n]

I am an investor of ROC, an opinion is merely theoretical, in other words I put my money where my mouth is.

Opinions are a dime a dozen, they can be got at each street corner for nothing.

 

As an investor I form a view of the future earnings of a company and act on that when buying, ROC's present value at double the NAV is nothing as it does not factor in future acquisitions, NEPI is even greater, NPN's NAV is 93- whilst it's share price is 1,787-

 

Let's look at PE instead, ROC = 7.03, NEP = 31.91, NPN = 60.80 (projected), whilst the new kid on the block STP = 3.91

 

So they are all just numbers, don't get confused by the facts.

 

I won't go there with regards TAX

 

My view is that overseas (any where with a good economy and relatively sound government and currency) property is the right sector to be in.

Property is the game I understand and feel safe with.

 

Hi Merlin, what is your opinion on ROC:

 

I spoke to a property specialist today of one of the investment houses. Says that ROC is trading at a rediculous premium of 100% NAV and is unsustainable at this level. They got out at 35.00.

 

Do you think this company at a 100% premium is fundamentally overvalued? I don't care about short-term price weakness - riding that out, but if it is a permanent value loss?

 

They same logic applies to Resilient.. some directors sold at 105 - is it short term price weakness or fundamentally overvalued?

 

As an aside, how much do tax implications impact your decisions? "Taking profit" before the 3 year holding period is up will results in 41% going straight too SARS - always very difficult to prove capital vs income....

So, does one take profit and loose 40%, or risk a massive drop on the hope of a long-term recovery and get away with CGT only?

[Fuxx]

If interest rates do go up in the US, how badly would that affect listed property? Sufficiently to warrent getting out of the sector?

[Fuxx]

Hi Merlin, what is your opinion on ROC:

 

I spoke to a property specialist today of one of the investment houses. Says that ROC is trading at a rediculous premium of 100% NAV and is unsustainable at this level. They got out at 35.00.

 

Do you think this company at a 100% premium is fundamentally overvalued? I don't care about short-term price weakness - riding that out, but if it is a permanent value loss?

 

They same logic applies to Resilient.. some directors sold at 105 - is it short term price weakness or fundamentally overvalued?

 

As an aside, how much do tax implications impact your decisions? "Taking profit" before the 3 year holding period is up will results in 41% going straight too SARS - always very difficult to prove capital vs income....

So, does one take profit and loose 40%, or risk a massive drop on the hope of a long-term recovery and get away with CGT only?

[M e r l i n]

Relax, everything is going to be alright

 

http://www.fin24.com...ts-JSE-20150507

[M e r l i n]

Queen B Hi,

Look at the graphs of Coronation, Mediclinic and BTI, they have all similarly been punished of late, it is merely a systematic correction.

 

Shares do not move in a linear way, they oscillate to find their level testing the support (bottom) and resistance (top) constantly, look at today's market, most shares are down (systematic influence), so these present buying opportunities to get in and top up on your position, buy is my interpretation of what the market is saying.

 

Lower volume on ROC today

I hope its not doing a FFB and going to stagnate now

Someone mentioned earlier in the thread that ROC has reached full value. I hope not

[M e r l i n]

I think ROC has NEPI have both had a hell of a run recently and people are taking profits, I certainly am not selling either, I am up 67% on ROC and 43% NEPI not counting the divs received.

 

According to my information 'the dogs may bark but the caravan moves on' is the order of the day.

 

 

Does anyone know why ROC has been taking so much pain lately?

 

Seems like all of them are down the last few weeks - ROC, FFB, RES...