257 replies to this topic

[Midas1]

Hi soutie, you seem have good understanding mining shares...so whats your take on mcz please?

[soutie]

Ha Ha Chairman having  to go on the charm offensive....   .....He won't like that one bit...!

 

Can't load the link ATM....    Will try again later unless someone else can...

[soutie]

Only sellers that can off-load around c150 are pre-rights issue even then they looking at break-even.

But hey can't get on the bus if you don't buy a ticket.

Good luck & well done if you get c150.

[Polly]

It's purely retail nerves...could be some previous Keaton holders not happy with their new home...

As mentioned if you wanna off-load 000,000's you gonna take a beeg haircut.

We get's a decent divi last few yrs & that's not changing anytime soon.

Keith (small caps Keith) Tweeted Eskom even pays them early...

Institutional support is what's missing here finish & claar....! 

made some easy money on that keaton deal buying keaton and selling off once swopped with Wescoal..

 

But if it hits R1.50 bid im in...

[soutie]

It's purely retail nerves...could be some previous Keaton holders not happy with their new home...

As mentioned if you wanna off-load 000,000's you gonna take a beeg haircut.

We get's a decent divi last few yrs & that's not changing anytime soon.

Keith (small caps Keith) Tweeted Eskom even pays them early...  

Institutional support is what's missing here finish & claar....! 

[Polly]

no desperate bid or sells at moment...

[soutie]

Careful now Snippet gonna get suspicious...& hijack my thread talking all Latin n' sh3t....

 

https://www.wescoal....download/11617/

 

 

This is a power point annual results link when you get time. It's easy reading & lots of pictures\info-graphics I'm sure you'll manage...

Edited by soutie, 31 January 2019 - 10:43 AM.

[Polly]

Elandspruit.... Run of Mine +/-3mil tons per yr...Life of Mine +\-7-8yr...

Vanggatfontein...Run of Mine +/-2.5mil tons per yr.... Life of mine +/-8yrs.

Khanyisa complex up & running now about 0.5-0.8mil tons per year. Life of mine +\-4yrs This will be ramped up by now to +/-1mil tons per yr

Moabsvelden small capex bit like Elandspruit will add another +/-2mil tons per yr...I'm sure once the Universal deal is wrapped up this will get go-ahead.

Their target is 8mil tons per yr. 

They produced 6.8mil tons FY2018.

What gets sometimes lost in the whole BEE noise is Eskom only takes 50% of their product. They are the biggest domestic coal trader by faaaaaar.

thats not too shabby then..may be worth a punt

[soutie]

Elandspruit.... Run of Mine +/-3mil tons per yr...Life of Mine +\-7-8yr...

Vanggatfontein...Run of Mine +/-2.5mil tons per yr.... Life of mine +/-8yrs.

Khanyisa complex up & running now about 0.5-0.8mil tons per year. Life of mine +\-4yrs This will be ramped up by now to +/-1mil tons per yr

Moabsvelden small capex bit like Elandspruit will add another +/-2mil tons per yr...I'm sure once the Universal deal is wrapped up this will get go-ahead.

Their target is 8mil tons per yr. 

They produced 6.8mil tons FY2018.

What gets sometimes lost in the whole BEE noise is Eskom only takes 50% of their product. They are the biggest domestic coal trader by faaaaaar.

[Polly]

Hi S..

 

 

had a deeper look and juts feel most of their existing mines have a very short lifespan...+-3 years

 

 

is this correct

[soutie]

My issue is with the concept of promoting the buy whilst intending to sell or on behalf of client sellers.

After all what should a broker do when the client gives a mountain of rubbish and you trying to live from the commission.

Timing for the scheme of dumping into a drummed up buying market can be difficult. You know the drill. Tell us more. 

Hell, I got this empathy issue makes me feel for all the the players. Even the con artists.

Morning Snippit.

First off I've always promoted this share...

I've no intention of selling any of my holdings as I now receive a chunk of cash via the annual divi.

I don't sell on behalf of anybody else as I'm just like you a retail investor/trader.

WSL is a growth company so during the life span of the company events will happen that I bring to the attention of this forum as you bring your charts & other stuff.

I also feel for the players in the game but I'm more of a collective kinda guy.

Tell us more...? Well maybe I've been around the block more times than you..? So my need to educate or caution or (insert as you see fit) is more diluted than yours.

I would dearly love to here your take on WSL as I know I'm looking through rose tinted glasses on this one.

Again not too cryptic though.

Cheers.  

[Snippit]

Hi Snippet.

Thanks for the chart.

I don't understand Elliot wave theory. I will agree on your point of entering wild west territory though.

I've been here before with WSL so another once round the block isn't a biggie for me.

As for pumping this share Yip I do & have done for years.

In my commentary over the yrs I've made it no secret even today "I is very bias"

Just watch the volume indicator & you'll see it's only ever retail investors exiting the big holders are stuck fast & they know it...!

This is a value trap & that's something I've also communicated very clearly over the yrs as well. 

I would like you to view this post in an everyday kind of way & if you reply stay same...as if you get too cryptic you'll lose me.

Cheers. 

 

My issue is with the concept of promoting the buy whilst intending to sell or on behalf of client sellers.

After all what should a broker do when the client gives a mountain of rubbish and you trying to live from the commission.

Timing for the scheme of dumping into a drummed up buying market can be difficult. You know the drill. Tell us more. 

Hell, I got this empathy issue makes me feel for all the the players. Even the con artists.

[soutie]

Hi Snippet.

Thanks for the chart.

I don't understand Elliot wave theory. I will agree on your point of entering wild west territory though.

I've been here before with WSL so another once round the block isn't a biggie for me.

As for pumping this share Yip I do & have done for years.

In my commentary over the yrs I've made it no secret even today "I is very bias"

Just watch the volume indicator & you'll see it's only ever retail investors exiting the big holders are stuck fast & they know it...!

This is a value trap & that's something I've also communicated very clearly over the yrs as well. 

I would like you to view this post in an everyday kind of way & if you reply stay same...as if you get too cryptic you'll lose me.

Cheers. 

[Snippit]

Warning: Consider the probability of the chart indicators:

Wescoal chart (weekly data) is in the wild west sector. Evidence of serious pump and dump activity abounds. Presently in corrective wave Primary [2] with heavy resistance at ( B ), which has 3 distinct waves, points to double-top and equal legs targets at the same gap closing location circa 105.

 

https://jsecharts.bl...y-of-chart.html

 

[soutie]

Happy to share bud..

Not feeling the love on MZC/CoA....Have a Wesizwe vibe going there...Dunno why but avoiding it..D. Brown also that guy...   had a total meltdown couple years back & cost me on an IMP cfd trade..

[Polly]

Thanks S....brilliant commentary..appreciated..

 

Seeing im already in ex coal of africa gona pass this unless i get R1.50 

[Midas1]

Thanks soutie..you seem have extensive knowledge in this field..ill watch with interest but still sticking top 40 at moment other than mcz and few ellies,,which im leaving for the foreseeable.

[soutie]

P.S.

I'm also bullish on Harmony & have been buying on all dips in the R22-23 region.

That's another story I'll put on the respective thread some day soon...

Cheers.

[soutie]

Morning Polly.

First off you aware I've held this seems like forever my av deep in the green & I have lots so I is bias.

This is my honest assessment ATM...

What the Chairman & his buddies at Simeka Capital want they get....No matter who is CEO...Lead independent director is also in their pocket...!

Can't blame them when nobody would back them... they had to back themselves & go cap in hand to IDC for funding to buy Keaton. That paid off handsomely & still is...! So they wealthy men now with confidence...healthy combination...

Same methodology going on here...Another deal & no funding forthcoming & this is a R1.8bil deal roughly twice their market cap.

Ata Resources... only Google & not much there...Black owned private equity crowd....So who's driving the bus...?

While Ata do have mining assets & holdings Wescoal have on the ground operational footprint even more so post Keaton.

Universal on the other hand also very decent outfit & well ran... Wescoal know this as Simeka 30% holding in their most profitable mine.

Most of Wescoal/Universal & Ata operations in Mpumalanga so savings across all 3 will be huge once ironed out.

This is a consolidation to secure supply feed for Mudupi & Kusile me thinks... they have assets near & a full suite of processing plants & a logistics arm also.

So it all up in the air ATM as to who stays & who goes....But the deal WILL go through just a numbers & most importantly also an exit game now. I say exit because Ata not long term mining guys me thinks so Wescoal as stated will want to be the entity left standing in couple years time.

What will they look like in 3yrs my guess 18-25mil tons per year steady ROM mostly sold to Eskom.  

As posted below Ichor coal also will get brought into the fold eventually with all the small marginal mines sold off as they have done with the Keaton/Wescoal ones.

So for a 3yr outlook yeah I'd say if you have spare go for it...Only downside is you maybe selling @c200-210 as this ticker can't get past this hurdle but that's still what 20% return ex divi's.

You don't need to do your own research as it's all on this thread plus some emotional rants just ignore those.

Cheers.

Soutie

[Polly]

S you a fundi on this share...at R1.70 you think  good entry for long term?

 

always wanted to get back in here....but seems capped at R2.00/ 2.50 for yonks....