28 replies to this topic

[SoleTrader]

There is big interst in Transaction Capital. Started buying at 600c. Should be 900c this week. I like the fact that directors are buying it silly. Also we should see an operational update from Trustco this week. Cross fingers!

[Sugafoot]

I'd caution at over-estimating the Sasol imminent comeback. Ppl thought R400 would be a support. I still think 280 is a real possibility. Remember the price war is to force out small timers. It will take time, considering that some of these producers can produce a barrel at around $8 and below.

Agree fully with you on the first point - SOL (and the oil price) will take time to recover. Not in the next 12 months. So for the purposes of this thread not a great pick.
However, SOL is a good company. They will bounce back from the current PE of 6/7. It remains a sound investment with its long term drivers intact given their
diverse portfolio of operations. People don't realise this but they produce way more than just oil. Go do 5 mins of research and you'll be surprised.
Mr. Dividend, I like your approach. Prudent.

The last comment here is bullshit though.
NOBODY can produce oli at $8 per barrel. Those articles you've read refer to variable production cost only ie. the "Lifting cost". Add "Finding costs" and other overheads to that and even the saudis can do a min of $20. With a world average of around $35. The guys in the states are suffering the most (especially the new producers) who are producing at $40-$50.


By the way... interesting article on Bloomberg yesterday. More uncertainty!
http://www.bloomberg...ah-s-death.html

The saga that is oil

According to a report by Frost & Sullivan, Angola and Nigeria are two of the world’s lower cost producers, producing oil at anywhere between $20 and $50/barrel. In comparison the cost of production from Canadian oil sands is between $50 and $100/barrel; in the US it’s $40 to $70; in Russia $40 to $50 and in Saudi Arabia, $10/barrel.

Not sure what they mean by $10 a barrel

[stayob]

Hi
I see SEP picked up today 6% plus

[Slickjoe]

@stayob, Quite like this share. The rand hedge play as well as the frequent utilisation of day hospitals in "more developed" markets. 

 

With regards to PNC. After the debacle last year and the share being bent over and rammed with a light pole - any chance of a recovery. Despite allegations and investigations concluding and mini-run thereafter, appears that investors have rightly lost trust in the company?

[stayob]

Hi
Any takers on AVL.will their day hospital model be swallowed by the big players ?
Me like the aussie rand hedge

[stayob]

I am in RFG around 12.50 with a 20% stake

[flexbender]

Rhodes is going to be a big player this year. got some inside info that they are lining up to acquire 2 more businesses to grow their business in a whole.

i have got in at R14.00 a month ago. price is now nearly R17.00.

 

big jumps to follow

 

One is Pacmar.

Who is the other?

[carlowest]

Rhodes is going to be a big player this year. got some inside info that they are lining up to acquire 2 more businesses to grow their business in a whole.

i have got in at R14.00 a month ago. price is now nearly R17.00.

 

big jumps to follow

Edited by carlowest, 26 January 2015 - 02:24 PM.

[stayob]

Regarding SEP I dont know what to make of dangote after the dangote tiger brand fiasco

[flexbender]

http://www.fanews.co...-for-2015/17280

 

Very relevant to the topic, here's NPW's Top 10 Picks for the year. - article is about a week old...

 

 

I like seeing ADI and NPN on the list. (owning both)

 

I'm also looking at OCT and KEH. They are well positioned for the next 12-24 months ahead. 

 

 

stayob, you'll find SEP on there too.

Riskier bet, but you'll see they are optimistic about the potential upside.

 

[stayob]

Also like to add SEP.they seem to kicking steam with metier.Any takes on this one.Sitting pretty on this one

[MrDividend]

Personally, I am not a fan of the chicken industry. The share price seems purely a play on what the price of feed is and/or what import tariffs are holding back such and such country from dumping a whole ton of chicken on us. So besides the actual company you really need to look at the whole macro environment including government polices for now and in the future.

 

Way to much PT for me.

 

Plus it just ain't sexy

 

 

 

 

[Slickjoe]

Regarding Quantum Foods, predictions overall are quite dreary as a result of poultry division concerns - consumer demand, brine levels etc. Still worth a look? 

[@sirgrantfleming]

8$ a barrel? Bollocks. sasol under 400 is good value.

Yeah people shouldn't believe everything they read on the interwebs

[HendrikB]

8$ a barrel? Bollocks. sasol under 400 is good value.

[flexbender]

I'd caution at over-estimating the Sasol imminent comeback. Ppl thought R400 would be a support. I still think 280 is a real possibility. Remember the price war is to force out small timers. It will take time, considering that some of these producers can produce a barrel at around $8 and below.

 

Agree fully with you on the first point - SOL (and the oil price) will take time to recover. Not in the next 12 months. So for the purposes of this thread not a great pick.

However, SOL is a good company. They will bounce back from the current PE of 6/7. It remains a sound investment with its long term drivers intact given their

diverse portfolio of operations. People don't realise this but they produce way more than just oil. Go do 5 mins of research and you'll be surprised.

Mr. Dividend, I like your approach. Prudent.

 

The last comment here is bullshit though.

NOBODY can produce oli at $8 per barrel. Those articles you've read refer to variable production cost only ie. the "Lifting cost". Add "Finding costs" and other overheads to that and even the saudis can do a min of $20. With a world average of around $35. The guys in the states are suffering the most (especially the new producers) who are producing at $40-$50.

 

 

By the way... interesting article on Bloomberg yesterday. More uncertainty!

http://www.bloomberg...ah-s-death.html

[Sugafoot]

I'd caution at over-estimating the Sasol imminent comeback. Ppl thought R400 would be a support. I still think 280 is a real possibility. Remember the price war is to force out small timers. It will take time, considering that some of these producers can produce a barrel at around $8 and below.

[Kempinski]

OP - with your first pick you have nailed it. Few have realised that it is nearly a 20 bagger in just over 5 years.

Edited by Kempinski, 22 January 2015 - 08:41 PM.

[M e r l i n]

Certainly hasn't settled above 50, 48.90 as we speak - my bet it shall break down not up.

 

Thanks again. SOL - I tend to agree. Well managed company. Oil price cannot lag under $50. Price has already "settled" over $50. 

[Slickjoe]

Thanks again. SOL - I tend to agree. Well managed company. Oil price cannot lag under $50. Price has already "settled" over $50.