40 replies to this topic

[yusufm]

Has it bottomed out...?

[yusufm]

 

I could be wrong. see some buyers coming in.

 

Must be yusufm. I see a comment that he was a buyer.

 

 

Nah   was busy with RESN today, managed to make 33% on it after multiple trades lol. Waiting for a more stable price for FDP as I'll be adding to LT portfolio, not trading portfolio

[Bargain hunter]

Selling pressure is increasing. I think this is going to 10c. Shares are flooding the market.

 

R100m worth of guarantee shares were a bad idea to begin with.

I could be wrong. see some buyers coming in.

 

Must be yusufm. I see a comment that he was a buyer.

 

[Bargain hunter]

Selling pressure is increasing. I think this is going to 10c. Shares are flooding the market.

 

R100m worth of guarantee shares were a bad idea to begin with.

[Shi]

Taken from pre-listing statement.

Attached Files

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[Bargain hunter]

 Yeah think that is better bet, think I jumped in a little bit too early but will see how this one goes and perhaps double down

 

Ok so after one year, say someone sold 2% every month (12x 2%) = 24% already sold/dumped on the market.

 

Now still has 76% left to sell, now they can sell 4%, so it will still take 19 months until sold out.

 

Looks like it was good strategy for management to buy the properties by giving the sellers shares, however if they are forced sellers they will continue to dump and the price will only go lower...I'll wait for 10c or below to take a bite haha

 

The restriction on trading only lasts 24 months. In theory if they really wanted out after that they could just dump all the remaining shares.

The biggest factor to consider in this business, I feel is availability of financing. If they are able to obtain financing for all projects and stop issuing shares at a discount this will be a roaring success. There seems to be some buyer support coming in at these levels, but the sellers are still dumping. The sellers might run dry of their 2% allocation soon. But next month they'll top up with a 4% allocation.

 

If only the company had the cash reserves to buy back its shares. But unfortunately they didnt issue any shares for cash and only got properties. Worst of all the properties are mainly land requiring development which puts more strain on cash reserves.

[Goliath]

Ok so after one year, say someone sold 2% every month (12x 2%) = 24% already sold/dumped on the market.

 

Now still has 76% left to sell, now they can sell 4%, so it will still take 19 months until sold out.

 

Looks like it was good strategy for management to buy the properties by giving the sellers shares, however if they are forced sellers they will continue to dump and the price will only go lower...I'll wait for 10c or below to take a bite haha

 Yeah think that is better bet, think I jumped in a little bit too early but will see how this one goes and perhaps double down

Edited by Goliath, 27 May 2015 - 11:00 AM.

[Mr.Balls]

Ok so after one year, say someone sold 2% every month (12x 2%) = 24% already sold/dumped on the market.

 

Now still has 76% left to sell, now they can sell 4%, so it will still take 19 months until sold out.

 

Looks like it was good strategy for management to buy the properties by giving the sellers shares, however if they are forced sellers they will continue to dump and the price will only go lower...I'll wait for 10c or below to take a bite haha

[Goliath]

12 june is 1 year since listing. The current vendors that they bought properties from and issued shares at R1 are restricted to 2% per month after 12 june it increases to 4% per month. They seem to just want out at any price.

Yep, adding to Bargainhunter's post we could perhaps see a further drop? Given the financials and NAV I took a bite at 24c but could go lower.. will wait and see before I top up! We'll it definitely looks better than my Visual International punt!

 

Edit: The one thing that catches my eye is the Stellenbosch development next to Welgevonden.. If its going to be similar to something like Welgevonden = could be big one.. There is currently two developments on the east side which is not doing that we'll though, so hopefully they'll learn from them and address those issues

[Bargain hunter]

If you scroll through their sens youll see they recently purchased a property for R50m if I recall correctly R37m is being paid in shares. Go figure. Why issue more shares at 22 cents. Furthermore why purchase more land when there is no cash to develop it. The results state they intend doing a sharebuy back. but at the same time they issuing more shares.

[Sugafoot]

Wow. It's one costly affair. Sounds like we could see 15c to 10c soon (not forgetting that the market is still due a correction). I'll take a punt around those levels.

[Sugafoot]

Wow. It's one costly affair. Sounds like we could see 15c to 10c soon (not forgetting that the market is still due a correction). I'll take a punt around those levels.

[Bargain hunter]

100 million guarantee shares were also issued. the difference between the price the shareholders sells at and R1 will need to be paid by the company. Thats a lot of loot. this expires 12 june.

[Bargain hunter]

12 june is 1 year since listing. The current vendors that they bought properties from and issued shares at R1 are restricted to 2% per month after 12 june it increases to 4% per month. They seem to just want out at any price.

[Mr.Balls]

What happens on 12 June?

 

Their results look ok, the properties in the portfolio look good and good prospects, looks like the market not worrying about the NAV only valuing them on PE basis.

[Bargain hunter]

Results out:

 

http://www.sharenet....25085900&seq=10

I'd wait to see what happens post 12 June to invest. The flood gates of shares held by vendors wanting to get out is still about to be opened. And the FY2015 results didn't seem to peak the buyer interest at this stage. It's a pity that financing is so difficult to come by. The business has great prospects but without cash they'll take forever to grow. Share price is likely to weaken from here. 

[Goliath]

Results out:

 

http://www.sharenet....25085900&seq=10

[Bargain hunter]

http://www.sharenet....22134500&seq=39

[Bargain hunter]

dropped from R1 on listing to 21c. They seem to have a huge overhang from shareholders wanting to rid themselves of shares. NAV is at R1.23, but likely to drop due to a contingency linked to sharebased payment. Is they can survive a bit longer and access some financing for development it should do very well.

[Goliath]

Not specifically, any reason we should?