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Where is the bottom for LONMIN


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#1 HighRiskGain

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Posted 06 January 2017 - 10:42 AM

Here I was hoping when Lonmin dropped to 18 someone would have wanted to buy them out. Still kinda hoping. I don't think I'll be able to make up the 50% loss I still have from the rights issue. We live we learn. 

Don't get me started on the right issues. PTSD in the corner of a shower rocking back and forth


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#2 sommerso

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Posted 06 January 2017 - 08:05 AM

Here I was hoping when Lonmin dropped to 18 someone would have wanted to buy them out. Still kinda hoping. I don't think I'll be able to make up the 50% loss I still have from the rights issue. We live we learn. 


Edited by sommerso, 06 January 2017 - 08:05 AM.

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#3 jaDEB

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Posted 05 January 2017 - 04:10 PM

  • 30 Nov 2016 Plat 916
  • 05 Jan 2017 Plat 955

4.25% Increase


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#4 HighRiskGain

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Posted 05 January 2017 - 03:35 PM

Platinum $ 15:23 963.05 19.43 2.06%

Also think i read something about platinum being in high demand for Q1 2017

 

Palladium $ 15:33 739.04 3.79 0.52% 

Also Palladium is higher - So win win for now...


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#5 HighRiskGain

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Posted 05 January 2017 - 03:29 PM

Why is Lonmin shooting the lights out?

Platinum $ 15:23 963.05 19.43 2.06%

Also think i read something about platinum being in high demand for Q1 2017


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#6 jaDEB

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Posted 05 January 2017 - 01:36 PM

Why is Lonmin shooting the lights out?


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#7 myusuf

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Posted 01 December 2016 - 01:44 PM

Look at it go R24


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#8 myusuf

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Posted 30 November 2016 - 03:08 PM

Is this stock dropping again

 

 

Imo   if the Fed actually hikes  rates - Platinum wont go beyond 1,100$ and Lonmin Sub R10 in 6 months.

It couldn't make a profit when the rand was at 15+ And platinum 1000$+ so its just cant produce profitably.

 

Share dropped to R3 - Then they do rights issue  - then its consolidated to R20 - Double up to R40 - Institutions make killing and recover their losses

Now back at R26  - possible selling off profits post rights

 

 


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#9 myusuf

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Posted 20 September 2016 - 03:40 PM

going to its true value - NO VALUE

 

 


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#10 JR7800

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Posted 18 June 2016 - 10:57 AM

Ok, so what happened on Friday?

 

Just before auction started the share was trading at just above R39. Then during the auction someone put in order to buy if I remember correctly 223,000 shares at R41,99.

 

What is this all about? Needless to say I am short this share and this trade almost killed me.

 

I am not sure if it could be a futures closeout or not as I don't know much about that.

 

Any one want to venture a guess to where to from her on Monday? I still think downward trend must continue.

 

Any advise or reason will be much appreciated.

 


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#11 jaDEB

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Posted 15 June 2016 - 02:58 PM

SOld my LON :P


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#12 jaDEB

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 03:43 PM

Looked at Lonmin results 2016 interim , cannot find NAV ... :mellow:  :huh:, I must be stupid.


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#13 myusuf

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 10:13 AM

Imo - even if a company net asset value is R200 per share it doesn't mean anything unless they plan to sell at that value for the shareholders

 

If it costs more money to mine a product than what you are selling for and you have strikes etc then that share is high risk

(Effectively the mine becomes worthless as its not viable to mine)

 

You have to make money to have value - Lonmin made a loss even with the rand at R15+ - If rand goes to R14 or R13 they are dead and buried.

 

Wage increases and strikes will be their final nail in the coffin.

 

Even if the dollar tanks - platinum goes up and the rand strengthens. same as gambling with Lonmin


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#14 purply

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Posted 08 June 2016 - 08:37 AM

If there is anything I have learnt from dealing with Lonmin over the past 9 months, it is that this shares does not conform to any rules or trading patters. It pretty much has a mind of it's own and climbs at the most unexpected times for no apparent reason.

 

I for one foresee another steep climb with their Q3 Production Report due August, will likely break the R50 mark then.

 

So many people have said that Lonmin is dead in the water, and yet they have climbed from a low R8 to a current R40.

 

Just look at their latest sens release and you will see that they are busy moving forward.

 

 


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#15 Investment novice

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Posted 07 June 2016 - 01:13 PM

Majority of the precious metals shares have been pumped by market sentiment and ratifed by historical share prices, most 5 year curves have peaks in 2011 12 and sudden drops in 2015 so it looks like the share is cheap at todays prices, also the rand devaluation and dual listing impacts on the share price. I am a proponent of the cyclical rand , very much like a liverpool supporter used to the many downs and fewer ups. The rand will stregnthen in the next 6 months and we will have a new president. South Africa is the place to be to ensure access to the African market....

 

Rand stregnthening and market volatality will affect the price of Lonmin, and perhaps common sense.

 

Unfortunately this is a pmpm and dump and pump and dump share in the short term, alternatively buy the same day Harmony goes up, as Lonmin has a 1 day lag, sell when harmony loses 2%


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#16 jaDEB

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Posted 07 June 2016 - 11:08 AM

I bought at R18.73, and sorry for the NOOB question, but after the rights issue and with a PE ration of minus 0.79, I cannot find the Net Asset value of the shares. Is it in the latest results? How do you guys get to R30 and R15? Will appreciate your input.


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#17 Rulz3

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Posted 07 June 2016 - 10:19 AM

I agree with you

 

Lonmin is being manipulated but this share has got go south

 

Its still making a loss and burning cash and has all these negative elements

 

Cant understand why the share is worth anything at all

 

It will one day be bankrupt again

Also agree. Max R30 worth - With market sentiment. Without market sentiment its only worth R15 maybe


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#18 myusuf

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Posted 07 June 2016 - 10:11 AM

I agree with you

 

Lonmin is being manipulated but this share has got go south

 

Its still making a loss and burning cash and has all these negative elements

 

Cant understand why the share is worth anything at all

 

It will one day be bankrupt again


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#19 JR7800

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Posted 07 June 2016 - 08:36 AM

So, obviously I have shorted Lonmin and the share price is not coming down.

 

I still feel it should go back to between R32-R34 for the following reasons:

- Wage negotiations started of with unions demanding min of 20% increase (not surprising as the previous agreement was 20% per year over 3 years)

- Violence already at mines (northam platinum 2 killed already)

- Platinum price down from 1030-50 to below 1000.

- rand down from R16 to$ to below R15

 

Any thoughts?


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#20 Investment novice

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Posted 30 May 2016 - 02:18 PM

I think its a rand hedge and same is for some gold shares,

assumption Rand hits 20 to 1 dollar, the gold shares and platinum shares are unlikely to depreciate 30%...

risk- rand already priced in weakness and depreciates only to R18 contained and gold and platinum price drops 10 to 15 percent this week and reaches last year October levels by end of July.

 

not much you can do, by sasol shares, will get wacked if oil glut returns friday, MTN shares- loss of confidence in the share in USA; health and food shares perhaps. ......Mediclinic would be the share to buy; Aspen probably... 

 

Not sure though, very very dicy...why....

 

We could get a reprieve and no decision with 6 months grace---Rand then will retrace to R14 and platinum and gold shares will find a new bottom

 

 


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