302 replies to this topic

[JR7800]

Don't understand that Lonmin is holding above R40 mark after platinum fell so much. Notham plat down 3% and anglo plat down 1.63% but Lonmin up 2.6%.

 

Why? Any ideas?

 

[Investment novice]

Hi

to your question , with market volatality , shares that have made significant profits in the past 6 months including Lonmin and Harmony are at risk of big movements downwards due to traders locking in their profits but more so having a greater desire to protect the larger than average profits made in such a short term. 

 

These shares are also at similar risk from USA traders where there is a dual listing and this is always my biggest concern.

 

Buy and adopt time in the market strategy, as with these shares timing the market is extremely stressfull.

 

The bottom for both shares could be mid R30, as I think that there is sufficient demand for precious metals to maintain the price here.

 

If either companies hedged a proportion their production on the metal price would have been a different story, though harmony has the rand hedge which is some relief

[purply]

Hi all

 

Any thoughts on Lonmin as a short. I cannot see that everything is now fine after just one update. I also think platinum prices have run a bit hard and might pull back to below $1,000 level.

 

Share price maybe down to R33-34 level again from where it is now?

Agreed

[JR7800]

Hi all

 

Any thoughts on Lonmin as a short. I cannot see that everything is now fine after just one update. I also think platinum prices have run a bit hard and might pull back to below $1,000 level.

 

Share price maybe down to R33-34 level again from where it is now?

 

[myusuf]

The share is manipulated by major institutions

(Got burnt before also)

 

Imo this share is not worth anything and the company will be bankrupt in 2 years time and they will ask for another rights issue [Unless platinum goes North - every day the company is burning cash]

 

best to stay away - same as gambling

 

[Sugafoot]

Yoh! Got burnt. Tried to catch a moving train. Got in too late. Good thing I sold following day. My wounds are licking me

[SLEEKONE]

Commodity stocks set to bleed.

[Jannik]

I think the huge rise the last two weeks were the market pushing it higher, because they wanted it higher...

Think that it is probably going back to its "real" price now.

I would not bet any longs on it at this point....all IMO

[Sugafoot]

Any thoughts on the prospects of the share price going forward?<br />Is the decline in the price yesterday an indication of a trend or just a breather?

[jaDEB]

Yes, I bought at R18.73, but only small amount...2% of Portfolio.

[JR7800]

Almost 15% up again today.

 

Can this last? Or is this short position squeeze and computers chasing price higher?

[SLEEKONE]

This stock will drop. I suggest you sell now.

[Jannik]

I'm happy and ITM.

 

Whats everyones take on it? Think it is time to sell or will it push some more?

[sommerso]

JaDEB, did you buy lonmin?

 

Sadly I'm trying to recover my losses still from the pre-rights and consolidation. Going from -80% to -50% is a win ...sorta ...almost....

 

 

[SLEEKONE]

Wtf. I always miss rallies. Damn and they happen when you least expect them.

Edited by SLEEKONE, 04 March 2016 - 01:02 PM.

[MoneyMan]

sheesh jaDeb must be the happiest man right now another 26% today

[sommerso]

Cutting costs by early retirement  and retrenchment for 5000 odd workers. That's a tough call, but the market seems to respond. Luckily some employees were saved and re-skilled. Perhaps increasing the chances for an amicable resolution to wage negotiations this year.

 

How I dislike the waiting game. Luckily getting some of my losses back.

[jaDEB]

Now 26%

[sommerso]

Guessing you are also seeing the 16% climb so far today.

 

Trying to find out if there is a specific reason for this, or is it a retreat to "safe" havens in search of value.

[jaDEB]