Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Aveng (AEG)...free lunch?!

Aveng AEG small cap construction

  • Please log in to reply
473 replies to this topic

#21 skeez

skeez

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 01:31 PM

Interesting that the shares on offer at 3 cents at the beginning of the week were 430 million. In the last 2 days this has increased to 2,9 billion (15% of issued shares) in 2.5 billion added in 2 big tranches.Not sure of the logic when only an average of only 15 million a day are being traded. At least 200 days of trading to eat through that quantity.In event one or more of the major shareholders is offloading.

Well with a rights offer of 1.5c coming up pending shareholder approval - i would also sell at 3c. Their update and plan is just insane! Maybe it is the right time to jump before it all goes to 0...
  • 0

#22 Tonyh199

Tonyh199

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 15 posts

Posted 04 December 2020 - 11:43 AM

Interesting that the shares on offer at 3 cents at the beginning of the week were 430 million. In the last 2 days this has increased to 2,9 billion (15% of issued shares) in 2.5 billion added in 2  big tranches.Not sure of the logic when only an average of  only 15 million a day are being traded. At least 200 days of trading to eat through that quantity.In event one or more of the major shareholders is offloading.

 

 


  • 0

#23 Zanme

Zanme

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 158 posts

Posted 01 December 2020 - 06:20 PM

To be fair to expect shareholders who have been waiting for ten years to be more patient and put more money at the hope that management will eventually get this right is taking it too far. I certainly won't support this. Shareholders voted that they buy back shares. This is what they should do.


These guys still think that they wonderful. And that nobody can ask them to buy shares. They should be buying them at the 10cents level of the original rights issue. They claim to have made the company survive but technically speaking had they allowed the company to fold before doing the rights issue. We would have been better off we wouldn't have participated in the rights at 10 cents to find the share at 2 cents and another rights issue on the cards.
  • 0

#24 skeez

skeez

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts

Posted 30 November 2020 - 04:37 PM

Yes ..At the last AGM they were authorized to buy back a max of 20% of the shares per year.

They have now tilted to the opposite side of the spectrum and are increasing shares in issue from 19 bn to 46 bn ( Additional 19bn from R300 m rights issue and 8bn from the R400 m debt settlement) . Share value has been significantly eroded.

However on the positive side :

Q1 for 2021 is a showing a profit of R124 m from core operations and management is promising a "sustainable R1bn a year operating profit", They are conveniently silent on when this could happen but if the Q1 trend continues (and hopefully they got rid of all the skeletons under the COVID excuse) a profit of R500 million for the 2021 year is possible and R1 bn profit is not inconceivable in the next 3 years. This eps even at 46bn shares would be 1,5 cents which could put the value of shares at 10 - 15 cents . (based on WBO and M&R PE ratios)

Although there is risk, I think there is still value in taking a 3 -5 year view by holding onto the shares and taking up the rights.

If management can sort themselves out there is considerable room for improvement in:

-Managing the contract risk so that we do not have anymore of the surprise write offs due to poor management and negligence.
- Improving Margins
- Reducing operating costs from a very high 8%

The Board does have a lot of explaining to do but the new Chairman Hourquebie does have a good track record (apart from him being chairman of the risk committee that failed miserably) and he does have the ability to make this work.

my 2 cents for what its worth!

To be fair to expect shareholders who have been waiting for ten years to be more patient and put more money at the hope that management will eventually get this right is taking it too far. I certainly won't support this. Shareholders voted that they buy back shares. This is what they should do.
  • 0

#25 Tonyh199

Tonyh199

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 15 posts

Posted 30 November 2020 - 04:33 PM

Yes I  fully agree......Why must these managers get such enormous salaries? Absolutely bullshit. .And they always seem to be in hiding. One can never get an answer out of them. At one time they also alluded to a share -buy -back. WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT PROPOSAL? and the share hovers around 1 to 3 cents for the past 2 years. YET THEY ARE BOASTING ABOUT ALL THESE GREAT CONTRACT THAT THEY HAVE LANDED and being executed IN OCEANIA...can Aveng not cross-subsidise this incompentent managers bridge 'disaster' in SA form Australian sources???  just asking to avoid diluting the current share even further with another 1.5c share offer??

 

I think the shareholders should vote againts their proposed plans unless all top management takes a 50% drop in pay package. As someone alluded to...... What they do is not rocket science..and I agree....get rid of the current management. I don't have confidence in them anymore   

Yes ..At the last AGM they were authorized to buy back a max of 20% of the shares per year.

 

They have now tilted to the opposite side of the spectrum and are increasing shares in issue from 19 bn to 46 bn ( Additional 19bn from R300 m rights issue and 8bn from the R400 m debt settlement) . Share value has been significantly eroded.

 

However on the positive side :

 

Q1 for 2021 is a showing a profit of R124 m from core operations and management is promising a "sustainable R1bn a year operating profit", They are conveniently silent on when this could happen but if the Q1 trend continues (and hopefully they got rid of all the skeletons under the COVID excuse) a profit of R500 million for the 2021 year is possible and R1 bn profit is not inconceivable in the next 3 years. This eps even at 46bn shares would be 1,5 cents which could put the value of shares at 10 - 15 cents . (based on WBO and M&R PE ratios)

 

Although there is risk, I think there is still value in taking a 3 -5 year view by holding onto the shares and taking up the rights.

 

If management can sort themselves out there is considerable room for improvement in:

 

-Managing the contract risk so that we do not have anymore of the surprise write offs due to poor management and negligence.

- Improving Margins

- Reducing operating costs from a very high 8% 

 

The Board does have a lot of explaining to do but the new Chairman Hourquebie does have a good track record (apart from him being chairman of the risk committee that  failed miserably) and he does have the ability to make this work.

 

my 2 cents for what its worth!


  • 0

#26 Trader001

Trader001

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 75 posts

Posted 30 November 2020 - 11:34 AM

A large portion of the proceeds of the R300 million rights issue will need to be used to settle the Mtetu Bridge Performance guarantee debacle - so there will be very little/if any value added to the company but the number of shares in issue will double / the value of each share will halve. Management including the chairman of the Tender Risk Committee - (who is now Board Chairman)  should be held accountable for the debacle....how could they not foresee that possibility when they walked off site? Unfortunately this is unlikely to happen- Covid and every other imaginable excuse is being thrown at shareholders while they take their R80 million in salaries.

Yes I  fully agree......Why must these managers get such enormous salaries? Absolutely bullshit. .And they always seem to be in hiding. One can never get an answer out of them. At one time they also alluded to a share -buy -back. WHAT HAPPENED TO THAT PROPOSAL? and the share hovers around 1 to 3 cents for the past 2 years. YET THEY ARE BOASTING ABOUT ALL THESE GREAT CONTRACT THAT THEY HAVE LANDED and being executed IN OCEANIA...can Aveng not cross-subsidise this incompentent managers bridge 'disaster' in SA form Australian sources???  just asking to avoid diluting the current share even further with another 1.5c share offer??

 

I think the shareholders should vote againts their proposed plans unless all top management takes a 50% drop in pay package. As someone alluded to...... What they do is not rocket science..and I agree....get rid of the current management. I don't have confidence in them anymore   


  • 0

#27 AMG76

AMG76

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 17 posts

Posted 30 November 2020 - 08:16 AM

Sens out this morning already.
  • 0

#28 Tonyh199

Tonyh199

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 15 posts

Posted 29 November 2020 - 10:11 PM

A large portion of the proceeds of the R300 million rights issue will need to be used to settle the Mtetu Bridge Performance guarantee debacle - so there will be very little/if any value added to the company but the number of shares in issue will double / the value of each share will halve. Management including the chairman of the Tender Risk Committee - (who is now Board Chairman)  should be held accountable for the debacle....how could they not foresee that possibility when they walked off site? Unfortunately this is unlikely to happen- Covid and every other imaginable excuse is being thrown at shareholders while they take their R80 million in salaries.


  • 0

#29 Tonyh199

Tonyh199

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 15 posts

Posted 29 November 2020 - 09:46 PM

We have to let them know that things must change. Who is the biggest shareholder supporting the rights. I tried to google them but can't seem to find anything. These guys are sickening they really are. You absolutely correct their annual rem for directors has been around R80 million what about the other head office costs. They traded negligently and have to be held accountable in some form. A lot of the guys on these forums argue for these guys to earn so much on the basis that it won't make a difference. But they are so wrong. R80 million makes a big difference. On PE of 10 it is R800 million. Twice the market cap of the company.

These are the biggest shareholders per their 2019 Financial Statements:

The top 10 shareholders of the Group as at 30 June 2019 are entities (or clients of these entities in aggregate) listed below:

Highbridge Capital Management LLC (US)**                                 19,8%
Coronation Asset Management Proprietary Limited (ZA)                16%

Allan Gray Proprietary Limited (ZA)                                                11,6%
ATM Holding GmbH (DE)**                                                              7%
Deutsche Securities Proprietary Limited (ZA)**                                4,6%

J.P. Morgan Securities Plc (UK)**                                                     4,1%  
Investec Securities Proprietary Limited (ZA)**                                 3,4%

Investec Asset Management                                                                3,3%
Personal Trust International (ZA)**                                                   3,3%
BNP Paribas Arbitrage S.N.C. (FR)**                                                2,6%

 


Edited by Tonyh199, 29 November 2020 - 09:48 PM.

  • 0

#30 Blackobar

Blackobar

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 104 posts

Posted 28 November 2020 - 10:13 PM

We have to let them know that things must change. Who is the biggest shareholder supporting the rights. I tried to google them but can't seem to find anything. These guys are sickening they really are. You absolutely correct their annual rem for directors has been around R80 million what about the other head office costs. They traded negligently and have to be held accountable in some form. A lot of the guys on these forums argue for these guys to earn so much on the basis that it won't make a difference. But they are so wrong. R80 million makes a big difference. On PE of 10 it is R800 million. Twice the market cap of the company.


Shareholders must vote against the remuneration policy and the board members up for re-election. People need to be kicked off the "gravy train".
  • 0

#31 Zanme

Zanme

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 158 posts

Posted 28 November 2020 - 08:47 PM

The strategy for these guys is simple. Run the business financing losses using debt and rights offers for as long as possible whilst drawing a HUGE salary. The top 3 execs just recently payed themselves huge amounts of money. For what? So they could report another loss and another rights offer? Then paint it like its a major achievement. This is going the Basil Read route. We will lose everything within 2 years. This is a engineering business ffs its not rocket science. It should not be this hard to run.


We have to let them know that things must change. Who is the biggest shareholder supporting the rights. I tried to google them but can't seem to find anything. These guys are sickening they really are. You absolutely correct their annual rem for directors has been around R80 million what about the other head office costs. They traded negligently and have to be held accountable in some form. A lot of the guys on these forums argue for these guys to earn so much on the basis that it won't make a difference. But they are so wrong. R80 million makes a big difference. On PE of 10 it is R800 million. Twice the market cap of the company.
  • 0

#32 skeez

skeez

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts

Posted 28 November 2020 - 10:26 AM

The strategy for these guys is simple. Run the business financing losses using debt and rights offers for as long as possible whilst drawing a HUGE salary. The top 3 execs just recently payed themselves huge amounts of money. For what? So they could report another loss and another rights offer? Then paint it like its a major achievement. This is going the Basil Read route. We will lose everything within 2 years. This is a engineering business ffs its not rocket science. It should not be this hard to run.
  • 0

#33 Zanme

Zanme

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 158 posts

Posted 27 November 2020 - 09:09 PM

I think that Sean is incompetent he couldn't even run Erbacon. Eric is the guy that brought this arrogant culture to the company. He destroyed and destroyed value on the pretence that he is selling of the SA business. He was egotistical wasting the company's money to fight Sanral in court and then he left. He thought he was something special. He was an executive chairman controlling the board and management. But its a clear example of a company with poor governance and big institutional shareholders did nothing because its not their money at risk and Aveng became so small.


But we can't liquidate it will mean that someone else will make money from it and we will be left with nothing the business rescue practitioners will make all the money. So lets follow this rights. But these guys have to have some consequences.
  • 0

#34 Zanme

Zanme

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 158 posts

Posted 27 November 2020 - 09:07 PM

Best option for shareholders is to liquidate this now. Try get something close to NAV. That management team have no ideas. The share price has struggled to get off 2c and you want to do a rights offer???? WTF! EOH execs took a 25% cut during COVID to contain costs - how much did AVENG execs offer - knowing full well they won't have cash? Am actually so pissed off with this. This business model is like any SOE in the country and Sean and his team are pigs feeding at the trough. Disgusting!


I think that Sean is incompetent he couldn't even run Erbacon. Eric is the guy that brought this arrogant culture to the company. He destroyed and destroyed value on the pretence that he is selling of the SA business. He was egotistical wasting the company's money to fight Sanral in court and then he left. He thought he was something special. He was an executive chairman controlling the board and management. But its a clear example of a company with poor governance and big institutional shareholders did nothing because its not their money at risk and Aveng became so small.
  • 0

#35 skeez

skeez

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts

Posted 27 November 2020 - 08:16 AM

Best option for shareholders is to liquidate this now. Try get something close to NAV. That management team have no ideas. The share price has struggled to get off 2c and you want to do a rights offer???? WTF! EOH execs took a 25% cut during COVID to contain costs - how much did AVENG execs offer - knowing full well they won't have cash? Am actually so pissed off with this. This business model is like any SOE in the country and Sean and his team are pigs feeding at the trough. Disgusting!
  • 1

#36 Blackobar

Blackobar

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 104 posts

Posted 26 November 2020 - 05:03 AM

Time for management to get the boot. Its the same theme. They raised money not so long ago. Used it to pay their salaries for three years and now they doing the same. Who is the largest shareholder?


No question, management has to go. They are turning this company into a lifestyle company, raising money for their own big salaries.
  • 1

#37 Zanme

Zanme

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 158 posts

Posted 25 November 2020 - 05:13 PM

Time for management to get the boot. Its the same theme. They raised money not so long ago. Used it to pay their salaries for three years and now they doing the same. Who is the largest shareholder?
  • 0

#38 Tonyh199

Tonyh199

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 15 posts

Posted 25 November 2020 - 05:08 PM

Todays SENS announcement:

 

https://www.moneyweb...y-announcement/

 


  • 0

#39 Tonyh199

Tonyh199

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 15 posts

Posted 23 November 2020 - 05:19 PM

I would not advise you to have your hopes up because, on another group a member stated that he spoke to the company secretary and she said that the results will be out on the 30th (Also JSE deadline) and the AGM will be in Feb. This is now purely a wait and see game. Even Engineering News is struggling to get info out of them:

 

https://www.engineer...-20/rep_id:4136

I called today - Was also told that the results would be out this week.They said the AGM scheduled for the 27 th on their website was incorrect and would be changed. I see that they have now changed the date to TBC ! 


  • 0

#40 skeez

skeez

    Newbie

  • Members
  • Pip
  • 49 posts

Posted 23 November 2020 - 11:37 AM

Does not bode well...news must be really bad. They have used every excuse in the book to delay these results. I never know why companies do this! If this share was not where it is now I would have bailed out already. Execs just need to be transparent- none of this smoke and daggers stuff.
  • 0





Sponsored by Sharenet and VPSNine Linux VPS Hosting