866 replies to this topic

[andi222]

Actually think Aton disposing their stake slowly in the market which is depressing the share price.

 

Yeah some big player is trying to get out. Wondering if it is Aton. They would make a huge loss on their investment tho. They bought the shares at 20-30 cents (Rights issue price plus 10 cents to get the share) and now selling it at 3 cents. At 1,3 billion shares that would be a loss of +-325 Million rand and they would loose the 25% stake to vote against such resolution. So M&R could start negotiating again?

[Polly]

It will be very interesting what will happen after the conversion. 

 

The banks (lenders) will own 75% of the company. So Aton's share in Aveng will go down to 7-8% after the conversion. This will make the M&R acquisition more interesting as Aton does not have their 25% share anymore to vote against the combination. 

 

What can happen is:

 

1) Aton might buy more shares to get to 25% again after conversion

2) They will try buy the bonds before the conversion to get the shares.

3) They will sell their whole stake in Aveng and make a huge loss on their investment (Doubtful in my opinion as they voted for the conversion)

 

What do you guys think where we going?

 

Coronation, Investec and Allan Gray are also big shareholders. See Morningstar website for a breakdown of shareholding.

 

 

Actually think Aton disposing their stake slowly in the market which is depressing the share price.

[andi222]

It will be very interesting what will happen after the conversion. 

 

The banks (lenders) will own 75% of the company. So Aton's share in Aveng will go down to 7-8% after the conversion. This will make the M&R acquisition more interesting as Aton does not have their 25% share anymore to vote against the combination. 

 

What can happen is:

 

1) Aton might buy more shares to get to 25% again after conversion

2) They will try buy the bonds before the conversion to get the shares.

3) They will sell their whole stake in Aveng and make a huge loss on their investment (Doubtful in my opinion as they voted for the conversion)

 

What do you guys think where we going?

 

Coronation, Investec and Allan Gray are also big shareholders. See Morningstar website for a breakdown of shareholding.

 

[realkingkam]

@realkingkam

Yes agree with you..good observation that this forum is quiet . I saw on sharenet that Aveng was listed among the most watched share last week along with steinhoff and also, the Aveng share trading volumes were huge. I can recall seeing volumes in the upper 20 millions, even +30 million on a couple of days last week but I am in a zone now that i am not sure whether to buy more or just stay put.

I was also thinking about Aton's role in this saga. Someone was alluding to the fact that Aton also supported the plans to to convert the debt into shareholding. So that makes me wonder what they have got up their sleeves now considering that they were very anti MuR buying Aveng a couple of months ago. Also MuR said that they might still consider buying Aveng in future. I think MuR can only do that once Atons bid to buy MuR expires in March 2019. Not sure about this ..open for correction



Maybe Aton is also after those two profit making entities in Aveng and maybe they will come to the party as soon as Aveng has sold those loss making entities and buy Aveng directly. Who knows?.

If Aveng gets any offer, surely it will be good news for Aveng and the share price would improve much faster?

This is business have to watch out for snakes ... Aton could be setting up the acquisition of Aveng for penny's ... by blocking it's expansion threw MUR... and vice versa regarding MUR...

Either way I see Aveng Climbing in the years to come threw an acquisition or survival and sheer grit

At 4c / 3c volumes must be huge... hope it stays that way when We get to the 8c 10c ...

[Trader001]

@realkingkam

 

Yes agree with you..good observation that this forum is quiet . I saw on sharenet that Aveng was listed among the most watched share last week along with steinhoff and also, the Aveng share trading volumes were huge. I can recall seeing volumes in the upper 20 millions, even +30 million on a couple of days last week but I am in a zone now that i am not sure whether to buy more or just stay put. 

 

I was also thinking about Aton's role in this saga. Someone was alluding to the fact that Aton also supported the plans to to convert the debt into shareholding. So that makes me wonder what they have got up their sleeves now considering that they were very anti MuR buying Aveng a couple of months ago. Also MuR said that they might still consider buying Aveng in future. I think MuR can only do that once Atons bid to buy MuR expires in March 2019. Not sure about this ..open for correction

 

 

 

Maybe Aton is also after those two profit making entities in Aveng and maybe they will come to the party as soon as Aveng has sold those loss making entities and  buy Aveng directly. Who knows?.

 

If Aveng gets any offer, surely it will be good news for Aveng and the share price would improve much faster? 

[Chris101]

Great informative positive share chat contributions..especially the positive spin on the company...Im still worried about the billions of ordinary shares shares issued to bond holders(lenders) for the debt Accounting 101 says that it is a bad thing to convert debt by issueing shares  and that is exactly what happened here....Mr Market will dictate on the price/shares as we are going forward

Nevertheless..I am also considering to buy more shares at 3c/share

Thanks guys. Did also buy-up on this. 1 000 000 shares costing me a 3,3c can only be a bargain if the company survives. In with a 2 year view!!

[andi222]

Let's what this week has in store for us. Would be glad if we could see the 5 or 6 cents.

Latest consensus on investing.com was around 18 cents.

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[realkingkam]

Great informative positive share chat contributions..especially the positive spin on the company...Im still worried about the billions of ordinary shares shares issued to bond holders(lenders) for the debt Accounting 101 says that it is a bad thing to convert debt by issueing shares and that is exactly what happened here....Mr Market will dictate on the price/shares as we are going forward
Nevertheless..I am also considering to buy more shares at 3c/share

Debt at this point and time = end of Aveng ... Glad they made the preparation to save the business ... live to fight another day ...

I wonder why share chat is not a loaded forum there is only a handful of us on here from what I have seen ...

[Trader001]

Great informative positive share chat contributions..especially the positive spin on the company...Im still worried about the billions of ordinary shares shares issued to bond holders(lenders) for the debt Accounting 101 says that it is a bad thing to convert debt by issueing shares  and that is exactly what happened here....Mr Market will dictate on the price/shares as we are going forward

Nevertheless..I am also considering to buy more shares at 3c/share

 

[andi222]

Good volumes are being traded. I think there is one big owner who wants to get out. After they have sold their shares we will hopefully see the 10 cents.

[andi222]

I think at this price there is great potential for the company.

In the trading update they reported a 93 million rand EBIT. What is killing them is the debt levels. However the following will happen:

Net debt level at interim +-600 million
Rights issue +500 million
Convertible bonds +1600 million
New issue of debt -500 million
So after all these transactions have been completed I see a very positive result going forward.

They are making profits and they have completed most of their loss making projects. See presentation.

So if they make a positive EBIT in the comming years and all fair value adjustments (Impairments) (Non-cash) they will generate good profits and a dividend might even be posible from 2020.

3 cents currently is a joke. They even mentioned that in their interim presentation.

Just my opinion tho, im going long. Recovery is well in sight guys. Think the hardest knocks are over

Sent from my SM-G950F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Polly]

Understanding the construction industry: it is either feast of famine. No in between. Looking forward either government invest or RSA fails as construction creates the most jobs per R spend. The Chinese coming in is huge concern as very little locals will be employed based on experience in other African countries. Talking to a lot of consulting engineers an QS very little new government tenders work. Round 4 windfarms will start soon but that is it for now. Expect a tough ride for new work till atleast middle next year. Construction is delayed by consultancy and currently consultant battle.

Agreed.. BUT

 

These guys are one above all this and are restructuring. Selling Trident and Grinaker which are both local. majority of assets left over will be overseas assets. This was a make or break rights issue.

Share was well over R3.00 when rights issue announced. Dropped immediately to R1.00.  and then they went full tilt to issue at a pittance 10c a share to make sure it was a success. IMO worst is over for company and now juts needs to survive at least 2 years ( debt free) to start making profits although bigger shares in issue.

 

All risk reward. Do your own homework. Im invested at zero cost.  Tried to buy more last few days @ 2c but not taken..May up to 3 c next week..

[Spell Jammer]

Understanding the construction industry: it is either feast of famine. No in between. Looking forward either government invest or RSA fails as construction creates the most jobs per R spend. The Chinese coming in is huge concern as very little locals will be employed based on experience in other African countries. Talking to a lot of consulting engineers an QS very little new government tenders work. Round 4 windfarms will start soon but that is it for now. Expect a tough ride for new work till atleast middle next year. Construction is delayed by consultancy and currently consultant battle.

Agreed. The jobs issue can be addressed though, even if a Chinese construction company is selected by employing local vs them using their prisoners for hard labour and ridding the Chinese mainland of their non desirable characters and making Africa a Chinese ex convict colony. I doubt they will though because two things make Chinese construction a cheaper alternative:

1. They pay their workers a pittance and they arent protected by unions.

2. They work crazy hours and quality and safety isn't high on the priority list.

Edited by Spell Jammer, 14 September 2018 - 11:04 AM.

[ESS]

Exactly... in 5 years of we up to a rand who can complain

Understanding the construction industry: it is either feast of famine. No in between. Looking forward either government invest or RSA fails as construction creates the most jobs per R spend. The Chinese coming in is huge concern as very little locals will be employed based on experience in other African countries. Talking to a lot of consulting engineers an QS very little new government tenders work. Round 4 windfarms will start soon but that is it for now. Expect a tough ride for new work till atleast middle next year. Construction is delayed by consultancy and currently consultant battle.

[Lionelza1]

Agree...much better than Steinhoff r/r imo...One as i said buy at 2/3 c and out away under bottom drawer for your grandchildren..
Dont look at every one cent move like how they doing on steinhoff thread.

Lol

[realkingkam]

Agree...much better than Steinhoff r/r imo...One as i said buy at 2/3 c and out away under bottom drawer for your grandchildren..
Dont look at every one cent move like how they doing on steinhoff thread.

Exactly... in 5 years of we up to a rand who can complain

[Polly]

Big risk big reward is the game I'm playing ... just have to hang ten and pray the make it threw the restructuring

 

Agree...much better than Steinhoff r/r imo...One as i said buy at 2/3 c and out away under bottom drawer for your grandchildren..

Dont look at every one cent move like how they doing on steinhoff thread.

[realkingkam]

Sounds like f up of note.ask polly sniipit or IN or always forget nother bright one...sounds like you know the answer s just dont want to hear it...mayve cashout? Or hold for a while..good luck

Big risk big reward is the game I'm playing ... just have to hang ten and pray the make it threw the restructuring

[Ms Jet]

Sounds like f up of note.ask polly sniipit or IN or always forget nother bright one...sounds like you know the answer s just dont want to hear it...mayve cashout? Or hold for a while..good luck

[realkingkam]

2 things . They don't have to pay eskom they got there own power and it is the same strategy China used to get there economy kick started many years ago . - tax breaks ECT attracts investment after x period ends Companies are vested and not going anywhere . . . Just hope our local guys get a piece of the pie to keep them alive ... I'm vested so if they die I die lol