866 replies to this topic

[Magnet]

Hey man. I think you need to times the 23 billion shares by 10.

23 billion shares at 1c will give you R230m only... They need R2.5bn so they need to dilute with 230 billion shares at 1c each. Hence why 1c price = market cap of R2.5bn

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[Matrix]

After a likely placement to pay off debt you will need the company to be worth a R250bn market cap to get to R1. LOL

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Hi Magnet,

 

Thanks for the input.

Will there not roughly be 23 billion shares after the early bond redemption and issuance of shares?

That would require a R23billion market cap for R1 per share, or what am I missing to be so far from your estimate of R250bn?

[Magnet]

After a likely placement to pay off debt you will need the company to be worth a R250bn market cap to get to R1. LOL

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[Magnet]

After placement at 1c the company will then be valued at R2.5bn. Currently not near that valuation. It will be debt free but still think it will need a share consolidation after that and then will likely drop again to perhaps 1.5bn valuation before stabilising.

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[andi222]

Thanks Polly.

I think at the current price there is great potential. After the redemtion, the company will save 150 million in finance cost.
If they can find some buyers for the loss making operations and the restructuring is completed we might even see some profits in 2019.
I bought 2 million shares at 2 cents keeping them for the long term.

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[Polly]

So what will happen here is they will convert the 1.6 billion rand bonds and issue 16 billion new shares at 10 cent. So that means that the bond holders think that 10 cents is a good price.
After that has been concluded I'm Sure we will see a capitalisation of the 23 billion shares in issue. Maybe in the ratio of 1 to 100. Then aveng will be close to debt free and im sure the share will recover in my opinion. ATON has even voted for the resolution. So they are involved as well and they havent written the investment off.
Just my opinion

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One of the better more insightfull  posts ive seen for a long time...Welcome Andi

[andi222]

So what will happen here is they will convert the 1.6 billion rand bonds and issue 16 billion new shares at 10 cent. So that means that the bond holders think that 10 cents is a good price.
After that has been concluded I'm Sure we will see a capitalisation of the 23 billion shares in issue. Maybe in the ratio of 1 to 100. Then aveng will be close to debt free and im sure the share will recover in my opinion. ATON has even voted for the resolution. So they are involved as well and they havent written the investment off.
Just my opinion

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[Trader001]

@Realkingham: Meeting concluded share dropped ? I thought a share issue at 10c will bring the share price up ?

 

A forthcoming share issue to drive the price up ..Yes, I thought so ....maybe the share price will still move up..just cannot see it at current level. 

Now I wonder whether  this Special Share issue is similar to a rights offer issue. Will  Aveng offer shares at a discount?? depending on your current stock holding? 

[realkingkam]

Meeting concluded share dropped ? I thought a share issue at 10c will bring the share price up ?

[Trader001]

The meeting  is tomorrow. Hopefully it will be followed by a SENS announcement on the voting and decision on, inter alia this special ordinary share issue. According to company,  the issue, if agreed to by existing shareholders? will be at 10c per share. So if this is not going to be a rights offer and you bought at 3c per share you will likely see your values rocketing as the share price will have to move up to about 10c or more??. 

 

[ESS]

worth the risk anytime in my opinion...

BSR was first of listed construction companies to go into business rescue. Changes of success coming out as going concern due to mining order book. Had lovely plan and then BANG out of blue into rescue. If you want to take long term risk any construction company at that price that in your opinion can survive for next 2 years.
Check construction % of GDP very low. Either government get sector to grow or total country stuffed. On knife edge....

[Polly]

Thanks Polly,

 

I know absolutely nothing about this share or company.

Seemed on the face of it as if this morning's SENS was positive, althouth the share price dropped, so probably missing something.

Does seem as if there is a plan being executed though:

 

Headline loss for year will be R1,602million down from R6,708million last year.

Good plan to dispose of assets by next year June, and a plan being executed to unlock value from core business.

Moolman's order book R5.3billion, and McConnel has work in pursuit of AUD 1.3billion with high likelyhood of success.

Rights offer will also hopefully reduce liabilities.

Taking the above values into consideration a current Market Cap of R160million seems extremely low!

But as mentioned I know very little about the company's history and why the share price is so low at the moment.

 

I've bought 2million shares at 3 cents.

If it does go to R1 in a couple of years that's R2million which only cost R60k.

If it folds, 40% of the R60k paid will be written of from tax in any case.

Seems like a worth while gamble I guess.

worth the risk anytime in my opinion...

[Matrix]

 i own some. but not adding... feel sufficient assets to survive  another 24 months.  BUT construction and engineering industry in huge problem space.  If they can survive those 24 months and then hope cycle changes to upside...One to put under the bottom drawer and forget about. Dont look at prices daily. 50 percent chance of going bust if they cant sell some assets at good prices. nett asset value surely has to be over R1.00 per share after rights issue

 

Thanks Polly,

 

I know absolutely nothing about this share or company.

Seemed on the face of it as if this morning's SENS was positive, althouth the share price dropped, so probably missing something.

Does seem as if there is a plan being executed though:

 

Headline loss for year will be R1,602million down from R6,708million last year.

Good plan to dispose of assets by next year June, and a plan being executed to unlock value from core business.

Moolman's order book R5.3billion, and McConnel has work in pursuit of AUD 1.3billion with high likelyhood of success.

Rights offer will also hopefully reduce liabilities.

Taking the above values into consideration a current Market Cap of R160million seems extremely low!

But as mentioned I know very little about the company's history and why the share price is so low at the moment.

 

I've bought 2million shares at 3 cents.

If it does go to R1 in a couple of years that's R2million which only cost R60k.

If it folds, 40% of the R60k paid will be written of from tax in any case.

Seems like a worth while gamble I guess.

[Polly]

@Polly,

 

I have appreciated your insight and often accurate analysis on the SNH chat.

Do you also believe Aveng to be a "dead cat" or is there some small potential here, despite the obvious risk?

 i own some. but not adding... feel sufficient assets to survive  another 24 months.  BUT construction and engineering industry in huge problem space.  If they can survive those 24 months and then hope cycle changes to upside...One to put under the bottom drawer and forget about. Dont look at prices daily. 50 percent chance of going bust if they cant sell some assets at good prices. nett asset value surely has to be over R1.00 per share after rights issue

[Matrix]

Dont think this is a rights issue again

@Polly,

 

I have appreciated your insight and often accurate analysis on the SNH chat.

Do you also believe Aveng to be a "dead cat" or is there some small potential here, despite the obvious risk?

[Matrix]

Anyone viewed the "Strategic action plan execution and trading statement" as per SENS released this morning, and can provide some insight?

Does this share hold potential for survival and growth if one's willing to go long?

[realkingkam]

Realkingkam..i see you did much better 12K for 300 000 shares

Unfortunately not ... been hesitant to pull the trigger on this one ... just don't see the share climbing anytime soon and I am trading at the moment not keen on sitting on it for too long ..

[Trader001]

Realkingkam..i see you did much better 12K for 300 000 shares

[Trader001]

Yes..spent 20K for about 200 000 shares on the Idea that MuR was going to buy Aveng.... then Aton (another German company??) with its 25.4% holding in Aveng stopped MuR to do it. I would have been better offif I had  pumped all of it into Steinhoff when I had that chance when the share was aroud R1.80.  I made a bit of a mistake there..BUT in hind sight the vision is always 20/20 hey!!!

[realkingkam]

Are you guys holding and stocks ??