42 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

hi have you been buying------get ready to sell and switch to equities getting dumped....

be cautious as all equities may get dumped ....

[Investment novice]

caution on a pump and dump with the gold shares- they all seem to be ralling 2-3% from overnight NYSE gains. If its is a Bremain gold should drop based on risk off and historical guidance , dollar should weaken and you should get an interim weakness for gold before it picks up again until employment data comes out.

 

if its a Brexit this is the share to buy- but again caution as following the gold run we may have an equity bubble bursting led by financial shares sell off and market frenzy throwing all shares into the downward spiral....

 

[Investment novice]

if there is no repreive the next 3 weeks can be hell for gold and gold shares esdpecially if Bremain dominates, markets have rekindled rosk off mood and Fed raises rates in July----in one week shares climbed 20%; not sure how much battering these shares can take...I wouild urge caution especially since they have rallied from lows of R8 in December 2015. If Brexit dominates jump on the band wagon!

 

[Investment novice]

Whats your take on this and other precious metal shares?

I want to buy and re-enter but was shocked with the market response with just the campaign being halted.

Britain staying in EU may have a significantly greater impact on gold then initially thought if the campaign reaction is anything to go by? and then does that bring fed back to the rates issue in July 2 weeks after that.

Fragile times for gold and gold shares-

 

Gold looks to hold above 1250 for now but may breach 1240 following a no Brexit and then retrace 1200 if FED increases rates...or rebound to 1300 all the way to 1400 with poor employment numbers in July and no Fed increase......if Brexit is on- the share will climb 30 percent so plenty of time to get on board from after the call.....or after the crash with all equities dropping 20%. last week gold was up and NYSE dumped harmony due to equity risk- could not believe the counter trend but thats a warning. Caution is important for us new investors with no hair on our ....

 

[Investment novice]

i was going to say Buy Buy Buy, but since the sudden referendum halt, and perhaps a chance for rates in July if employment data is sufficient- inflation seems to be picking up. NYSE also shorting the share as was seen Mon before fed announcement. it may be risk off mood so also expect further shorting....

I was ready to dive into the stock again having been coautios- but now will wait post july announcement or post employement data announcement....

 

 

[zunaidsolomon]

I think u right the etf on gold are thru the roof but i think this is going to end badly just cause I have an opinion doesn't mean I'm willing to take risk though so I won't be shorting any gold stocks or buying them iether that's more gambling than investing i say protect your capital and trade the good trades that's avail plenty around with a lot less risk also a lot less reward but hey that's the nature of the game

[Investment novice]

time to bail on this share and re-enter after rates decision. everyone says no to june but highly likely july rate increase...this statement alone by yellen may impact on gold negatively...but I fear that yellen surprises with a 25 basis rise and agrees one more rate for the year probably july...this will drop gold to 1100 or 1050. Best to get out and back again after yellen speech or after july rate decision.....

june can be on the cards despite low employment data. dollar weakness is a bigger concern and so cheap money

[purply]

do you think today is a buy and make 10 % riding the wave of optimism and the share from R51 to R55 and further to the end of week, and or  hazarding a loss of R2 per share with Yellen vagueness and rand stregnthening.....odds for a gambling man/woman would be a buy. Bloody americans could short the share by the way. safer to go anglogold and drd with this guess as less volatile..perhaps and add a bit of lonmin

Decided to go DRD myself, will skip Harmony this time around.

[Investment novice]

do you think today is a buy and make 10 % riding the wave of optimism and the share from R51 to R55 and further to the end of week, and or  hazarding a loss of R2 per share with Yellen vagueness and rand stregnthening.....odds for a gambling man/woman would be a buy. Bloody americans could short the share by the way. safer to go anglogold and drd with this guess as less volatile..perhaps and add a bit of lonmin

[Investment novice]

Fed may raise rates in june and july to increase the cost of their money and stregnthen their banking sector? not sure if this is the intention. According to USA data, USA saving up over the past 3 months at 5.4 which may influence the rate hike. The job numbers was a shocker despite increase in private jobs which seems to have gone by unmentioned or rarely mentioned

could have a nice run on gold and shares for the next 2 weeks but share price may be hampered by rand stregnthening, I also think we will get profit taking mid week so some nice opportunities. surprising harmony only up 40 cents thus far and not 10% as reported ...whats with that!!!

either we have a gold bull or we have a gold bear- both scenarios firm on the table with the quity bubble that looks to be heading for troubles waters and perhaps being reset sometime

 

[TheConflict]

Can someone tell me why the diversified miners AGL and BIL are being taken to the cleaners today? 

 

Both have been driven down more than 4 %.

 

I don't see any fundamental reasons why.

 

Is it purely selling off of safehaven assets in anticipation of a faourable ratings decision on Friday evening?

 

What am i missing?

[purply]

happy that I beat the market 12 May, and happier that you saved some money... I think if we share our thoughts honestly then it will prevent us from being blind sided. Most of the videos I have watched and analyst reports seem rather inconsistent. Not sure the intention or if they are looking for a pump and dump

I have already learnt that reading "economists published articles" should be taken with a pinch of salt, or just flat out ignored most of the time.

 

Starting to get the feeling that these guys get paid to write stupid nonsense about certain companies so that someone else benefits when things go the opposite way of what said economist predicted.

 

That is just my sentiment on the whole thing

 

I prefer getting insight from local SA sites like sharenet, where ordinary people like myself have a vested interest in something and value other fellow SA peeps input.

[Investment novice]

happy that I beat the market 12 May, and happier that you saved some money... I think if we share our thoughts honestly then it will prevent us from being blind sided. Most of the videos I have watched and analyst reports seem rather inconsistent. Not sure the intention or if they are looking for a pump and dump

[grr]

Good to see these comments. I jumped out of sibanye largely for your point made about Yelling.

yep, a good risk to take friday for a 5 percent gain monday morning early trade. should be able to buy Harmony for R42 by friday midday, and have Harmony open at R43 even climb to R48-R50
alternatively Yellen will be satisfied with dollar stregnth and may be unremarkable and balanced and you will lose 2-5%.
Nice call since the share is already pricing in a rate increase.

regarding holding gold company for long term, mining houses will present good growth with stable demand if price bottoms and they can maintain profitability and pay regular dividends....

nice for short term speculation...

I am new at this and learning daily, thanks for your replies..

Sent from my LG-D855 using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

[Investment novice]

yep, a good risk to take friday for a 5 percent gain monday morning early trade. should be able to buy Harmony for R42 by friday midday, and have Harmony open at R43 even climb to R48-R50 alternatively Yellen will be satisfied with dollar stregnth and may be unremarkable and balanced and you will lose 2-5%. Nice call since the share is already pricing in a rate increase. regarding holding gold company for long term, mining houses will present good growth with stable demand if price bottoms and they can maintain profitability and pay regular dividends.... nice for short term speculation... I am new at this and learning daily, thanks for your replies..

[purply]

when I posted the inital comment last night Harmony was at $3.18;  feraed the sell off and was surprised to awake with Harmony closing at $3. Another 7% down on JSE, without any further good news from SENS from Harmony or gold climbing above $1230, Harmony share should continue to see significant downward pressure.

I am out of Harmony until better days- rather miss out on few percentages growth, but not going to sit around and let my weak heart strain on the drop.

will re enter in the 30's or if bottoms out in the 40's by mid june comfortable with FEDs June or July move, ahead of harmony results for 6 months.

I've never held Harmony or any other gold related stock for investing purpose, but rather for short term trading.

 

For this reason I will risk buying Harmony/SGL/DRD come Friday morning in the hopes that Yellen gives indication on holding rate hikes for now.

Edited by purply, 25 May 2016 - 11:00 AM.

[Investment novice]

when I posted the inital comment last night Harmony was at $3.18;  feraed the sell off and was surprised to awake with Harmony closing at $3. Another 7% down on JSE, without any further good news from SENS from Harmony or gold climbing above $1230, Harmony share should continue to see significant downward pressure.

I am out of Harmony until better days- rather miss out on few percentages growth, but not going to sit around and let my weak heart strain on the drop.

will re enter in the 30's or if bottoms out in the 40's by mid june comfortable with FEDs June or July move, ahead of harmony results for 6 months.

 

[Investment novice]

My biggest short term concern:

Looking at market sentiment the biggest risk is an escallated shorting of the Harmony share for 2 reasons: short term gold price; but more so from traders locking in profits as apart from the institutional buyers, most individual traders will now want to protect their profits. as the selling starts increasing over the next few days and R38 looking like a more reasonable share price we will have a massive sell off and Harmony could soon find its way back to any where from R18 to R33 depending on the sell off.

Harmony is a R44 share according to most USA analyst and hopefully it bottoms here though despite my love for this company and share- it is a stressfull share to hold very similar to watching liverpool play.....this share has had numerous ups and downs historically.

 

Gold will find a short term bottom and have continued interest in 2016; 2017 onwards Harmony is a good share for the portfolio.

Harmony will also start looking for African acquisitions to add platinum and silver to the portfolio so a good share for future....

I would also consider Sibanye as they have an agressive acquisition strategy

 

 

[purply]

Hi this is a very interesting period for gold investors- if Yellen is dovish as she usually is Gold may get enough momentum to go through the 1300 barrier but if is she is hawkish Gold may go all the way to December levels. I am not sure if the gold companies have hedged the gold price, does anyone know of this, harmony has the rand hedge for a third of the production.

for short term traders if she is dovish may be able to buy the share at a 3 to 5% premium early and then ride the growth until Harmony hits R60, problem is if she is hawkish may lose 5 to 10% from now until Friday and a further 5 to 10% Monday morning on opening of the market.

 

If youre in for the long haul no problemo, but for short term speculators this is heart rendering week....surprising though there states NYSe seems to be resilient not sure for how long, yesterday close of market HMY was trending downwards.

 

I think the market is very cautious and there is low volume trades with Har

 

Your thoughts

You pretty much summed it up, as that is my current sentiment as well.

[Investment novice]

Hi this is a very interesting period for gold investors- if Yellen is dovish as she usually is Gold may get enough momentum to go through the 1300 barrier but if is she is hawkish Gold may go all the way to December levels. I am not sure if the gold companies have hedged the gold price, does anyone know of this, harmony has the rand hedge for a third of the production.

for short term traders if she is dovish may be able to buy the share at a 3 to 5% premium early and then ride the growth until Harmony hits R60, problem is if she is hawkish may lose 5 to 10% from now until Friday and a further 5 to 10% Monday morning on opening of the market.

 

If youre in for the long haul no problemo, but for short term speculators this is heart rendering week....surprising though there states NYSe seems to be resilient not sure for how long, yesterday close of market HMY was trending downwards.

 

I think the market is very cautious and there is low volume trades with Har

 

Your thoughts