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Harmony gold bleed


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#21 Investment novice

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Posted 19 May 2016 - 07:01 AM

This may be a fragile period for Harmony as short term traders take profits and gold looking to track to 1200 or possibly even 1150. There is sufficient demand I would assume for gold to hold at 1180- 1200. The biggest problem is the dual listing and the usa reducing their gold equities exposure following the compensation for the first quarter.In the short term cash is king and perhaps dollar is king. i will consider kruger coins when gold retraces to 1150.

Harmony share may track to R38 or even R33 as profits taken off the table by speculators and I will look to add at R33 in July ahead. A previous post in this group mentioned a head and shoulders and harmony expecting to trade around R38...sounds possible now.....


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#22 Investment novice

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Posted 13 May 2016 - 02:44 PM

I bought from R12 then fell to R8 but only started buying again from R13 onwards and bought more with the highest purchase at R58 and the last at R48.I have reduced buying now as I am expecting either a massive correction before the bull returns, or if no massive correction then sufficient momentum to go past 1300 and I will probably end up buying at R56. Ahead of August results I will buy again as the results should be impressive and I am expecting a R1 dividend per share. US analysts will also have to relook their position and I think that they will upgrade to a buy which should give this share more momentum. Historically though this is a share that moves very much with Gold and we may see Gold reclaiming 1220 between June and August, especially if the market alsready prices in the poor global growth and becomes numb to the ongoing poor results Harmony is a good share to hold especially at R38 to R50 a share now and perhaps R60 if gold is at R1350 and rand at R15- R16.
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#23 jaDEB

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Posted 13 May 2016 - 07:31 AM

What did you buy HAR @  ?


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#24 Investment novice

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Posted 12 May 2016 - 09:06 PM

Hey guys, just a note that despite popular belief the Feds may surprise with a rate hike earlier rather than later. Also if inflation numbers exceed 0.8 should see a massive drop off on the gold price and harmony will subsequently also be discounted.

 


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#25 Investment novice

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Posted 29 April 2016 - 08:34 AM

I love Harmony, management rocks !!!

 

The rand hedge is now coming in to focus, with the gold price up and rand dropping, I adjusted the KG price by a third based on the fact that only a third of production has been hedged at R15.80, thereabouts. as the price of gold increases and the rand decreases, the adjusted price that Harmony receives increases despite the rand falling and the effect is even more pronounced.

Last week speculators dumped/shorted an undervalued share that is also a growth share. The recent market turmoil has shaken the worlds population and their risk management strategies have been disrupted. With the rebalancing I am beginning to think that responsible portfolio managers will now increasingly advise their clients to hold gold and silver and this should maintain demand and the price above 1150 at least which ensures that our mines will be profitable and cash flush. This does not account for the increase in Cu price with global recovery.

 

I think Harmony is an undervalued growth share with at least a 30 % upside in the month and at least 100% within 2 years if not more.

 

Please advise?

 

Gold price;  gold price /3 ; gold price 2/3 ; current R ; hedge;  gold price hedge ; adjusted gold price              

582000;         194 000.00;         388 000.00;   14.4 ; 15.8             212 861.11 ;   600 861.11

586466        195 488.67       390 977.33 14.27 15.8             216 448.56  607 425.89

589000        196 333.33       392 666.67 14.2 15.8             218 455.40  611 122.07


Edited by Investment novice, 29 April 2016 - 08:36 AM.

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#26 Investment novice

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Posted 26 April 2016 - 12:44 PM

Could the fed cut rates? USA GDP Q2 approaching 1; core inflation at 0.6, corporate growth down, housing market down. The market only talks about increasing or maintaining but the Fed may cut rates let alone go into negative rates. what impact will this have on gold, I guess break 1300, hopefully the rand does not stregnthen...either way HAR has the hedge in place. If gold at 1300, HAR debt free by September; dividends this year and share price by R65....an unlikely scenario but I will say a prayer tonight!

 


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#27 battleship

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Posted 25 April 2016 - 03:18 PM

The head and shoulder is playing out.Should fall to about 3800 the climb again.  the meeting in the usa tomorrow will have big repercussion to all the gold shares


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#28 Investment novice

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Posted 21 April 2016 - 02:25 PM

Has anyone calculated the cash flows with the hedge in effect with Gold at 1265; and rand hedge at R15.80. 

I have requested HAR for an analyst report and their response was wait until August? ....@@#$%%

If anyone has any information please will you share...

Wonder if the chinese would like to have this company...


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#29 Investment novice

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 05:20 PM

Hi I have been watching this share with eagerness for the past year and started investing last year with the few rands I had and thereafter exited. started again in Septmber 2015 only to lose 30 percent of my investment or so I thought, but I stuck to my guns as I know the company, the people and valued the PNG and Killi as well as SA production at a share price of R150 thumb suck...but this share has a bad track record which is changing as the company is focussed on shareholders expectation.

 

They are smart and hedged a third of the production at R15.80  and are now smiling as the gold price inreases despite the rand dropping now.The initial analysis demonstrated debt free status by end of december but at the time their R/kg was on average less than R500k....so truly speaking they will debt free by end of August and we should expect dividends....do your numbers there is enough information provided since last December but dont let the unions get smell of this!!!

 

"The strong R/kg price received during the quarter of about R600 000/kg strengthened Harmony’s cash flow. Cash certainty was further created by the foreign exchange hedging contracts that were announced in February 2016"

 

In the short term this is unfortunately a pump and dump share and will always be victim to traders, but i am buying and continue to buy on the dips....

 

Dont be surprised of a dividend announcement in August!!!

 

And the dollar value drive the price...

 

So up or down this is a defensive and a growth share with a rand hedge despite recent rand stregnthening ... I will continue to pump this share and increase my risk from August when they are debt free and are overnight a R150 share....yep pessimist did not believe me at R7.80 a share...do your homework and dont gamble...

 

 

 

 

 


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#30 Vertebrae

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 09:27 AM

Gold miners are no place for *hit and run *******.

You either know gold is the place for next 4 years or you don't

 


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Africa will never be regarded as adult until all of its organisations stop admiring and protecting criminal dictators.

MSM et al presents (sponsored) opinion as fact and seeks to indoctrinate. Journalists without ethics proliferate in a swamp of filthy lucre (BBC inclusive).

In response to decades of racism by fearful minority whites called apartheid there will be an eternity of racism by revengeful majority blacks called all kinds of excuses.

Corruption is not yet compulsory but it may as well be - Aggressive africanization uses the racist Employment Equity Act as a club.

Too many humans are too busy copulating to bother about the irresponsible, unsustainable and progressively catastrophic population explosion. 

Whilst humanity prevails so will evil. Evil will survive and thrive through sophisticated indoctrination and other conscience-suppressing disguises.

Desmond Tutu has been praying for the downfall of the ANC since 2011. Clearly he needs some assistance with such a difficult and worthy task..

Cockroaches still lurk on sharechat because it is prime real estate for their con artistry, duping and grand theft.


#31 sommerso

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 08:35 AM

I'm still in the greens by 34%. Bought (again) when they were just below R40. Was looking good at R60... but that was a long way back. I'm starting to think it might be worth while speculating rather than the buy and keep strats.


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#32 SLEEKONE

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Posted 20 April 2016 - 07:21 AM

This isn't looking good for Harmony with the Rand gaining so much strength against the dollar. Not sure if I should wait it out, or sell and seek new pastures.


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#33 sommerso

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Posted 19 April 2016 - 09:52 PM

This isn't looking good for Harmony with the Rand gaining so much strength against the dollar. Not sure if I should wait it out, or sell and seek new pastures.


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#34 HighRiskGain

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 04:30 PM

Hmmm 😂 . It would seem that tommorow is another day
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#35 HighRiskGain

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 11:00 AM

Yes , have to wait and see . Think the dollar should gain due to junk status also looming in the background for next month ...
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#36 purply

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 10:46 AM

I see this freeze didn't go as planned . 

Indeed, not entirely sure why gold hasn't started climbing yet.Maybe once NYSE opens things will change, guess we just wait and see.


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#37 HighRiskGain

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Posted 18 April 2016 - 10:33 AM

I see this freeze didn't go as planned . 


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#38 HighRiskGain

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Posted 15 April 2016 - 05:21 PM

Purply - thank you for the info . Battleship - agreed.
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#39 battleship

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Posted 15 April 2016 - 02:38 PM

Harmony had a very clear head and shoulder pattern which was an indication for caution. it is now broken down


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#40 purply

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Posted 15 April 2016 - 11:51 AM

It's mostly overseas investors that drives these kinds of shares, and with the current oil price "freeze" being doubtful, overseas investors tend to spend less on emerging markets like South Africa as their risk apatite dwindles.

 

So much important data being released over this weekend, which also negatively impacts overseas investors apatite towards emerging markets.

 

We will only see come Monday in which direction the data and oil "freeze" will push investors.

 

For now, investors are withdrawing funds from emerging markets, something that started early yesterday already.

 

Gold is also strongly effected by dollar strength.


Edited by purply, 15 April 2016 - 11:52 AM.

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