In 1900 almost all the vehicles on the roads of New York were horse-drawn. A few hundred may have been cars.
By 1905, the number had risen to 23,000, and by 1908 there were 100,000 in the city.
The 21st century shift from fuel-powered cars to electric vehicles will probably be a lot slower, however, and SA is bound to be a few years behind the rest of the world.
But the process could be accelerated by the arrival next year of Jaguar Land Rover’s I-Pace, the company’s first full electric vehicle. After a global introduction and much hype, Britain’s largest car manufacturer is preparing an SA launch in the first half of 2019.
The I-Pace brings together the driving dynamics of a Jaguar and the practicality of a 4x4. Global reviews say the I-Pace gives Tesla electric cars decent competition — and it is considerably cheaper.
The I-Pace’s planned arrival will help cement the future of electric vehicles in SA, and Jaguar Land Rover aims to offer some degree of electrification on every new Jaguar Land Rover model from 2020 onwards.
What kind of investment does it take to introduce these vehicles to a new market? And what are the constraints?
Cars in the late 1800s needed good roads, and the arrival of asphalt was celebrated for giving cities alternatives to cobblestones. People and horses had tripped over the river stones set in mortar. They were slippery when wet, and the sound of horses walking over them was an irritation to residents. The smooth asphalt was a welcome development for vehicles, horses and people.
Electric vehicles have a completely different set of constraints, primarily focused on the source of their power. Jaguar Land Rover has already had to part with close on R1bn to upgrade its local dealerships since 2017, and will continue to invest in retail facilities. It has to happen in advance of the arrival of the I-Pace, which needs electric charging facilities.
This will also prepare the company for other electric vehicles, including Range Rover’s plug-in hybrid electric models, says Izak Louw, public relations manager at Jaguar Land Rover SA.
Other manufacturers have also had to invest in charging facilities, and their hope is that the investment will pay off when consumers switch to electric vehicles.
To smoothen that process, Jaguar Land Rover and SA’s Electric Vehicle Industry Association (Evia) are lobbying for more favourable duties on electric vehicles. Louw says: "Government has a key role to play. Electric vehicles do not benefit from trade agreements. Internal combustion engines from the UK have an 18% duty rate and battery electric vehicles are subject to a duty of 25%."
Evia’s Hiten Parmar shares Louw’s outlook. "The taxation of electric vehicles in SA is not conducive to new model introductions due to the high import duty and [added] tax, which [amounts to] 43%." This means consumers face a large additional cost if they make the choice to switch to electric vehicles, he says.
Parmar says the industry has approached the International Trade Administration Commission (Itac) — a body of the trade & industry department — to ask for a reduction of the import tariffs on electric vehicles.
"The current high import tariff for electric vehicles is structured to protect a local manufacturing industry," he says, but points out that no electric cars are being made or assembled in SA.
Last year it was reported that in 2016 BMW had applied to Itac for there to be no import duties on purely electric vehicles.
Louw expects the shift to more sustainable vehicle technology to gather momentum.
However, car makers have to convince consumers of the benefit of making the switch. Anxiety about the range of an electric vehicle, infrastructure concerns and worry about battery life are just some of the fears people have. There is still a predominant fear among consumers that a vehicle won’t manage to reach its destination before it needs to be charged.
The company plans to address infrastructure concerns by enabling home charging for all customers, backed by public charging facilities. An extended warranty of eight years or 160,000km will be offered on the I-Pace, and will be redeemable if the battery’s "state of health" drops below 70%, says Louw.
All new Jaguar cars now come with a five-year or 100,000km warranty as standard.
For the moment, Nissan and BMW offer electric vehicles in SA. Parmar says 352 electric vehicles have been sold since Nissan’s introduction of the Leaf in 2013 and BMW’s i3 entry into the market in 2015. New market introductions of electric vehicles include Jaguar and Audi. Parmar says 5,320 hybrid vehicles have been sold in SA since 2005.
With those low figures, it’s therefore unlikely that demand for electric vehicles will mushroom as it did for cars in the early 1900s.
But change is coming, and the shift to cleaner, greener cities is an exciting prospect.
Roll on 2019
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