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#1 SnoopDD

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Posted 29 September 2017 - 01:40 PM

CNBC Viewership Drops To 22 Year Low

 

Fox Business, which launched almost 10 years ago, averaged 187,000 total viewers, while CNBC delivered 152,000, marking the lowest viewership since 1991 for the 28-year-old network.

 

http://thehill.com/h...ecutive-quarter

 

This is what QE has brought, nobody needs to watch CNBC to make money anymore, countries are printing their Inflation higher

 

BTD


Edited by SnoopDD, 29 September 2017 - 01:41 PM.

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#2 SnoopDD

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 08:30 PM

Bitcoin trades for $7200/BTC in Zimbabwe

 

http://www.techzim.c...um-in-zimbabwe/

 

 


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#3 SnoopDD

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:26 PM

How should this technically affect bitcoin and its price? Assume its not good and all bitcoin holders should run for the hills?

lol Bitcoin will never go away there are too many people worldwide that dont trust their governments


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#4 SnoopDD

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:24 PM

What's your opnion on Wednesday rate hike? Think they will leave rates as is?

 

Snoop doesnt waste his time watching South African politicians. We the only country where traders are forced to watch a MF give a speech then afterwards announce the rate decision. We anyway not in control of our currency


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#5 SnoopDD

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:19 PM

How 2 Turn $500k into $250 Million Thru Crypto Currencies 
 
It started with a late-2015 visit to a friend’s startup in Brooklyn.
 
“I expected to see Joe, a dog and one assistant. Instead I saw 30 dynamic young people crammed in a Bushwick warehouse, coding, talking on the phone, making plans for this revolution,” Novogratz said. “Macro guys are instinctive. My instinct was, ‘I want to buy a chunk of this company.”’
 
He decided instead to invest in ether, the cryptocurrency token used on the Ethereum network. Novogratz bought about $500,000 at less than a dollar per ether and left on a vacation to India. By the time he returned a few weeks later, the price had risen more than fivefold. He bought more.
 
Over the course of 2016 and into 2017, as ether surged to almost $400 and bitcoin topped $2,500, Novogratz sold enough to make about $250 million, the biggest haul of any single trade in his career.
 

 

 

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#6 SnoopDD

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Posted 27 September 2017 - 07:14 PM

WTF


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#7 CE0

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Posted 18 September 2017 - 10:26 PM

What's your opnion on Wednesday rate hike? Think they will leave rates as is?
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#8 Rulz3

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Posted 15 September 2017 - 08:16 AM

China will shut down all local Bitcoin exchanges by the end of September - report

How should this technically affect bitcoin and its price? Assume its not good and all bitcoin holders should run for the hills?


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#9 SnoopDD

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Posted 15 September 2017 - 08:06 AM

CF Eclectica Absolute Macro Fund

 

Manager Commentary, September 2017

 

What if I was to tell you I wasn’t bearish on anything? Is that something you would be interested in?

 

It wasn’t supposed to be like this and it is especially frustrating as nothing much has gone wrong with the economy over the summer. If anything we feel more convinced that our thesis of a healing global economy is understated: for the first time in an age all parts of the world are enjoying synchronised economic momentum and I can’t see it ending for some time. It’s just that our substantial risk book became strongly correlated over the short term to the maelstrom of President Trump and the daily news bombs emanating from the Korean Peninsula; that and the increasing regulatory burden which makes it almost impossible to manage small pools of capital today. Like I said, it wasn’t supposed to be like this…

 

But let me bow out by sharing my team’s views. For the implications of a sustained bout of economic growth are good for you. It’s good because it should continue to underwrite a continuation in the positive performance of global equities. I would stay longIt’s also good because I can’t see interest rates rising abruptly to interrupt the upward path of equities. And commodities have already acknowledged the upturn in the fortunes of the global economy and are likely to trend higher still. That’s a lot of good news.

 

But it is bad news for me because funds like mine are required to demonstrate negative correlation with risk assets (when they go up like this I go down…), avoid large drawdowns and post consistent high risk adjusted returns.

 

Oh, and I forgot, macro fund clients don’t like us investing in the stock market for the understandable fear that we concentrate their already considerable risk undertaking. That proved to be an almighty puzzle for a fund like mine that has been proclaiming the stock market as a “safe-ish” bet ever since 2013.

 

Let me explain the “markets are wrong and we boom now” argument. To begin with, and for the sake of clarity, I think we have to carefully go back and deconstruct the volatile engagement between capital markets and central banks for the last ten years for an understanding of where we stand today.

 

The first die was cast by the central bankers in early 2009: having stared into the abyss of a deflationary spiral in 2008 the Fed and the BoE announced a radical new policy of bond purchases named Quantitative Easing. The bond market hated the idea as it was expected to cause a severe inflation problem.

Thankfully Bernanke, a student of the great depression knew better.

Markets primed themselves for inflation yet even with a ripping stock market in 2009/10 they were disappointed. QE rescued the financial system but the liquidity created was distributed to the very rich who have a very low monetary velocity and so the expected inflation fillip never materialised as the liquidity injection came to be stored rather than multiplied by the banking system.

Several years later, in 2013, the Fed suggested a reduction in the pace of its QE program. They wanted to tighten credit conditions gradually. However, capital markets beat them to it and the ensuing “taper tantrum” tightened monetary policy on their behalf. Within four months the market had taken 10 year treasuries from a yield of 1.6% to 2.9%, a move of far greater impact, and much more rapid, than anything the Fed had contemplated doing.

 

Markets initially thought the US could cope with this higher level of rates, but with a slowing economy, an unfortunately-timed oil price crash, and persistent ghosts in the machine (like the substantial Yuan devaluation fear which never materialised) they were proven wrong. Back then, with a 7.6% national unemployment rate and tepid wage inflation, this tightening always looked a little premature to us and so it proved with the rate of price inflation inevitably sliding lower to present levels.

 

And so last year, following many years of berating the Fed for its easy monetary policy regime, investors collectively threw in the towel. This rejection of the basic tenets of the business cycle by those who direct the huge pools of real money is proving particularly onerous to attack as it seems that the basic macro fund model is broken: there are just not enough “coins in them pirates’ chests” to challenge the navy of this flawed real money doctrine. Managers, and I must count myself in this camp, feel compromised by our poor absolute returns since 2012 and we find ourselves unable to put up much resistance to this FAKE NEWS.

 

Why should you fight it? Well let’s look at the last few times American unemployment dipped below 4.5% like today. I would largely ignore 2000 and 2006 when monetary policy was tightened and the economy buckled under the duress of the dramatic reversal in what had been credit fuelled misallocations of capital in the TMT and property sectors. No, for me 1965 is far more illuminating. Then, like today, there was no epic bubble or set of circumstances whose reversal could cause a slump; people forget but recessions don’t come out of thin air. No, in 1965, economic growth got choked by a tight labour market; a market as ominously tight as today’s.

 

In the middle of 1964, CPI core inflation was running at 1.7% and indeed dropped to just 1.2% in 1965; unemployment was 4.5%, the same as today. And yet by the end of 1966 inflation had essentially got out of control and didn’t dip below 2% again until 1995, almost 30 years later.

 

hendry%201_0.jpg

 

It seems to me that wage or cost push inflation is far more difficult to prevent and contain than asset price inflation. It tends to bear comparison with how Hemmingway described going broke: slow at first and then devastatingly quick. It may prove especially potent right now as the labour market is tight and there are no catalysts to generate a self-correcting US recession with both central bankers and markets now  united in their desire for loose policy.

 

Look at the graph below, the unemployment rate (red) is at lows, job openings (blue) have increased beyond the hiring rate (teal) and are now approaching the unemployment rate for the first time since the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey data began. Ultimately robust GDP growth plus this labour tightness will lead to wage hikes and conceivably a self-sustaining inflationary cycle.

 

hendry%202_0.jpg

 

This is all the more ominous as the Fed has been reluctant to unwind its balance sheet. The largesse of this program fell to those already wealthy (“the global creditor”) and who had a low propensity to spend:
financial markets boomed, less so the real economy. However the legacy of QE plus wage gains would turn this equation on its head. It would distribute incremental dollars to those with a much higher propensity to spend. The boost to monetary velocity from widespread wage increases would start to look much more like the helicopter money that Chairman Bernanke promised back in 2002 and subsequent central bankers dared not distribute.

 

The macro shock would not necessarily be the subsequent inflation but, that by waiting to respond until later, higher policy rates might fail in the first instance to induce a recession setting off a loop begetting higher and higher rates. Let me explain: companies will continue to employ staff, and with wages increasing, it is likely that sales will hold up and, depending on whether they achieve productivity gains or not, corporate profitability might also remain firm. So companies will commit to pay staff more whilst raising prices to meet higher wage and interest payment demands where possible. Like I said, wage or cost push inflation is a very different beast to contain.

 

I have to say that should this scenario unfold then capital markets will be as culpable as the Fed. This year, bond investors have aggressively flattened the US yield curve. The clear message is that 1.25% overnight rates threaten to pull the US economy into recession. I disagree. I think they are undermining the ability of the Federal Reserve to respond proactively; the Fed is simply not going to hike rates under such conditions having learnt the hard way back in 1999 and 2005. But what if such flatness has more to do with the commercial investment pressure brought on by QE rather than a genuine recession threat? Could it be that the bond market’s cautionary recessionary indicator is stuck flashing RED whilst the US economy goes from strength to strength? I fear so.

 

Clearly of course no one knows. However if an inflationary path like 1966 is gestating then I fear there is very little chance that anything timely will be done about it. Rate hikes will continue to be sparse, we only have one quarter point hike predicted between now and the end of 2019, which if fulfilled will be highly unlikely to spark a severe recession. Most likely the US economy will continue to grow and the labour market will tighten making a larger adjustment to rates in the future inevitable.

 

And so QE could conceivably end up doing what it was always supposed to do in the first place: find its way through the financial system to increase, not decrease, interest rates. This scenario would diminish greatly if bond curves steepened a lot now and gave the Fed the credibility to hike. Sadly I just don’t see this happening. They will steepen of course but I fear only after the virus of cost push inflation is released into the global hothouse.

 

This potentially leaves us in a strange environment. In the absence of any recognisable asset bubble set to burst, and the Fed grounded, the US economy is unlikely to slip into recession. China continues to rip. And now the European continent is recovering. Risk assets should continue to trend positively. And with the bond market, wrongly in my opinion, infatuated with the likelihood of an approaching US recession, the Treasury market is unlikely to move much. This is simply not a good time to offer a risk diversifying portfolio.

 

However, perhaps being long fixed income volatility isn’t such a bad idea. It has not been persistently lower than this for almost three decades. And unlike equity volatility it does not tend to trade in lengthy and definable regimes; it is never a great idea to go long equity volatility just because it happens to be low. The same cannot be said of its fixed income counterpart.

 

The collapse in volatility since 2012 seems to resonate with the drawn out process of QE in the US and its slow spread across the world. However that era is clearly now abating as this year’s synchronised global growth gradually shifts the debate from looseness to gradual global tightening. And yet fixed income volatility resides on the floor…

 

Looking at the one year implied volatility on 10 year swaps, the cost of entry seems reasonable even compared to the narrow trading range we have seen this year. That is unless you expect volatility to crash and  the trading range to contract even further. With only one Fed hike priced in until the end of 2019 any further contractions are likely to be driven by outright recession. In that case volatility will rise across all asset classes. On the other hand, if our thesis is right, and the market and Fed are too complacent on inflationary pressures, then it is likely that we see more hikes from the Fed alongside yield curves steepening from their currently very low levels. Fixed income volatility will surge. When the status quo priced in is this boring, fixed income volatility really has only one direction it can go.

hendry%203_0.jpg

 

With inflation still weak and government bond prices unlikely to crack just yet it is too early to seek a short fixed income trade in disguise. In the past, correlations have, just like in the stock market, typically been negative between the price (SPX or Treasury) and the implied volatility (VIX or swaption vol.). Now however the correlation is mildly positive. So being long fixed income volatility is not necessarily the same as  being short fixed income. My contention is simply that fixed income volatility has over shot to the downside, that such moments are fleeting and that you are not necessarily dependant on a correction in treasury prices.

 

hendry%204_0.jpg

 

Sadly I will be unable to participate with such trades during the next upheaval in global markets with the Fund but I hope that this commentary has at least roused you into contemplating scenarios that are presently deemed less plausible.

 

It remains only that I thank you for the great honour of having been responsible for managing your capital and to wish you all great financial fortune.

 

Hugh Hendry and team


Edited by SnoopDD, 15 September 2017 - 08:08 AM.

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#10 SnoopDD

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 05:06 PM

China will shut down all local Bitcoin exchanges by the end of September - report

 

 

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#11 SnoopDD

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Posted 14 September 2017 - 03:11 PM

DAMN Bitcoin

 

Lots of folk have lost lots of money, thank you China

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Edited by SnoopDD, 14 September 2017 - 03:11 PM.

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#12 SnoopDD

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Posted 13 September 2017 - 02:46 PM

Bitcoin, Bitcoin, Bitcoin

 

What is Snoop 2 DO?

 

 

 

 

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#13 SnoopDD

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 08:34 AM

BOJ Now Owns 75% of Japanese ETF's

 

 

lol and we all told don't put all your eggs in 1 basket

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Edited by SnoopDD, 12 September 2017 - 08:36 AM.

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#14 SnoopDD

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Posted 12 September 2017 - 08:32 AM

US Debt Hits $20 Trillion

 

http://www.usdebtclock.org/

 

Hip Hip Hooray


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#15 SnoopDD

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Posted 09 September 2017 - 10:51 AM

If u wanted to know how to Profit from the storms hitting the USA, Florida have a look at Orange Juice Futures

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#16 SnoopDD

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Posted 09 September 2017 - 10:42 AM

China's August producer inflation jumps to four-month high
 
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's producer price inflation accelerated more than expected to a four-month high in August, fueled by strong gains in raw materials prices and pointing to strong, sustained growth for both factory profits and the economy.
 
The producer price index (PPI) rose 6.3 percent in August from a year earlier, from 5.5 percent in July, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Saturday.
 
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the August producer price inflation rate would edge up to 5.6 percent, its first pickup in six months.
 
On a month-on-month basis, the PPI rose 0.9 percent in August.
 
China's industrial firms have been posting their strongest profits in years thanks to a government-led construction boom which has fueled demand and prices for everything from cement to steel.
 
The country's strong appetite for resources such as iron ore has helped fuel a reflationary pulse in the manufacturing sector worldwide.
 
But analysts continue to maintain that factory-gate prices will lose steam eventually as the government continues to clamp down on riskier types of financing, which is slowly pushing consumer and corporate borrowing costs higher.
 
China's commodities futures markets have rallied hard this year and continued to surge through in August. Strong restocking demand and government pledges to shut inefficient and highly polluting mines and plants have underscored concerns over tight supply heading into winter.
 
Activity in China's steel industry expanded in August at the fastest pace since April 2016, reflecting high levels of production and low inventory.
 
With the industrial sector in high gear, China's economy grew by a faster-than-expected 6.9 percent in the first half of this year, turbo-charged by heavy government spending and massive bank lending last year.
 
That momentum plus strong August readings so far should allow Beijing to easily meet or beat its full-year growth target of 6.5 percent.
 
Indeed, relatively steady growth through the rest of the year would see the world's second-largest economy accelerate for the first time in seven years. Last's years pace of 6.7 percent was the slowest in 26 years.
 
China's consumer inflation rate also rose more than expected to a seven-month high of 1.8 percent in August, the bureau said, the first time it has accelerated in three months.
 
The consumer price index (CPI) had been expected to rise 1.6 percent on-year compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in July.
 
Food prices, the biggest component of the consumer price index (CPI), fell 0.2 percent from a year earlier.
 
Non-food price inflation quickened to 2.3 percent in August from 2 percent in July.
 
Analysts had expected the CPI to rise 1.6 percent from 1.4 percent in July but remain well within the central bank's comfort zone.
 

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#17 SnoopDD

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Posted 09 September 2017 - 10:39 AM

PBOC to Remove Reserve Requirement on FX Forward Trading
 
China’s central bank will effectively remove a reserve requirement for trading foreign currency forwards -- a move that may slow the pace of yuan appreciation after its biggest two-week surge in at least a decade -- according to people familiar with the matter.
 
Effective Sept. 11, the People’s Bank of China will stop requiring financial institutions to set aside cash when buying dollars for clients through currency forwards, the people said, asking not to be identified because they aren’t authorized to speak on the matter in public. The ratio is currently set at 20 percent. The PBOC didn’t immediately reply to a fax seeking comment after usual working hours.
 
Chinese authorities put the rule in place in October 2015 in a move seen as an effort to restrict dollar purchases when the yuan was weakening. A removal would make it easier for traders to buy the U.S. currency, reducing pressure for yuan appreciation. The Chinese exchange rate has rallied close to 5 percent over the past three months amid speculation policy makers will buoy the exchange rate in the run-up to a key Communist Party meeting on Oct. 18. That Asia-beating surge has now prompted talk the PBOC may try and slow the advance.
 
The potential move to do away with the reserve requirement “is a good way to signal discomfort with the pace of appreciation and shake out the market,” said Sacha Tihanyi, a strategist at TD Securities.
 
The time is becoming appropriate for China to scrap the requirement, China Merchants Bank Co. analyst Wan Zhao wrote in a note earlier in the week. With the dollar trending lower and the daily fixing regime having incorporated a counter-cyclical factor, greenback sales are driving the yuan stronger and it’s time to treat clients’ dollar buying and selling equally, according to the note.
 
The rally in the yuan had started to fuel speculation that policy makers were loosening their grip on the currency. The offshore yuan weakened past 6.50 to the dollar Friday amid the report of the planned PBOC rule change. The onshore yuan erased an intraday advance of as much as 0.8 percent to close 0.06 percent in the red.
 
This step “is actually a better way of approaching the situation than simply intervening in the foreign-exchange market,” said Robert Minikin, a foreign-exchange strategist at Standard Chartered Bank. “This is quite an important signal here, suggesting the authorities feel that the currency may be strong enough to damage exports.”
 
 
and damage jobs

Edited by SnoopDD, 09 September 2017 - 10:42 AM.

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#18 SnoopDD

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 09:35 PM

welcome back. Will be following your posts

 

Thanks, Snoop appreciates that very much


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#19 CE0

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 09:03 PM

😀welcome back. Will be following your posts👍
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#20 SnoopDD

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Posted 08 September 2017 - 08:45 PM

Investor Who Lost Millions Finally Gives Up on His China Bet
 
Mark Hart spent seven years and $240 million waiting on a crash in China’s currency.
 
He lost sleep. He lost clients. He damn near lost his sanity.
 
And now he’s lost his conviction: Hart, who called for a more than 50 percent yuan devaluation last year, has turned bullish on China and its currency.
 
His reversal hasn’t come easily. From his base in Fort Worth, Texas, the hedge fund manager spent countless nights on the line to Hong Kong, parsing market news and exchange rates. At times, the stress took a toll on Hart personally and left his employees demoralized.
 
“I always thought we had a good risk-reward trade on, but we made a number of mistakes, including being way too early,” Hart, who started the yuan bet after predicting both the U.S. subprime mortgage bust and the European debt crisis, said in a telephone interview. “And now the world has changed.”
 
In cool hindsight, the 45-year-old founder of Corriente Advisors sees last year’s Group of 20 summit in Shanghai as a key turning point. Like many investors, Hart suspects the meeting resulted in a tacit agreement among world leaders to prevent the yuan from tumbling. He calls it China’s “whatever it takes” moment -- when policy makers resolved to prop up the currency at any cost.
 
“China now has the breathing room it needs to either temporarily stave off a slowdown with fiscal and monetary stimulus, or reform, grow and upgrade itself into the world’s largest developed economy,” Hart said.
 
Whether or not China got help from other G-20 nations, the government has clearly succeeded in stabilizing the exchange rate. The yuan ended a three-year slide in late December and has rallied almost 7 percent in 2017, including a 0.5 percent increase on Thursday. It’s now trading at the strongest level in more than a year versus the greenback.
 
Even at its weakest point, the yuan never dropped enough to move the needle on Hart’s wager, which started in 2009. His dedicated China funds, which had fixed lifespans, bought options that were designed to deliver one of two outcomes: a massive payoff in the event of a currency crash, or a near total wipeout if a major devaluation failed to occur.
 
The trade went against him almost from the beginning. After holding steady for the first six months of 2010, the yuan strengthened for the next three and a half years. It eventually reversed course, but the sharp devaluation that Hart had anticipated never materialized. His second China fund shut in December. All told, he lost between $240 million and $250 million.
 
In an interview with Bloomberg Markets last year, Hart said his biggest mistake was believing that China’s leaders would find it in the country’s best interest to let the yuan slide (a one-off devaluation, Hart argued, would remove an incentive for capital outflows). Instead, policy makers went to extreme lengths to prop up the currency, tightening capital controls and burning through more than $800 billion of foreign-exchange reserves over the past two years.
 
Even at its weakest point, the yuan never dropped enough to move the needle on Hart’s wager, which started in 2009. His dedicated China funds, which had fixed lifespans, bought options that were designed to deliver one of two outcomes: a massive payoff in the event of a currency crash, or a near total wipeout if a major devaluation failed to occur.
 
The trade went against him almost from the beginning. After holding steady for the first six months of 2010, the yuan strengthened for the next three and a half years. It eventually reversed course, but the sharp devaluation that Hart had anticipated never materialized. His second China fund shut in December. All told, he lost between $240 million and $250 million.
 
In an interview with Bloomberg Markets last year, Hart said his biggest mistake was believing that China’s leaders would find it in the country’s best interest to let the yuan slide (a one-off devaluation, Hart argued, would remove an incentive for capital outflows). Instead, policy makers went to extreme lengths to prop up the currency, tightening capital controls and burning through more than $800 billion of foreign-exchange reserves over the past two years.
 
Read more: A QuickTake explainer on China’s managed markets
 
For Hart, it was a rare miscalculation. His macro hedge fund had returned an annualized 30 percent from 2001 through 2006, while his wagers against the U.S. mortgage market gained six-fold during the global financial crisis. Hart then doubled some of his investors’ money by predicting the European sovereign debt crisis that ensued.
 
He wasn’t the only hedge fund manager to forecast a yuan crash. Hayman Capital Management’s Kyle Bass, who worked with Hart on the subprime mortgage bet, called for a 30 percent devaluation in February 2016, while Passport Capital’s John Burbank said three months later that he expected a “major” slump within a year. Managers from David Tepper to Crispin Odey made similar predictions in 2015.
 
While some hedge funds have stuck with their bearish wagers, Hart says the tide has turned in China’s favor. Foreign central banks and institutional investors are adding to their yuan holdings as the country steadily integrates itself with the global financial system, while President Xi Jinping’s “One Belt, One Road” initiative has allowed China to strengthen ties with trading partners across Asia, Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
 
Hart says Beijing’s capital controls, including a clampdown on overseas acquisitions, have proven very effective.
 
“I don’t expect to see many big soccer club purchases by wealthy Chinese,” he said, adding that outbound investments will generally be directed toward the technology industry and the “One Belt, One Road” project.
 
Record corporate debt levels are still a challenge, but Hart says China is starting to reap the benefits from its “world class” infrastructure and burgeoning tech sector. He’s optimistic about stocks in both of those industries, as well as other emerging Asian nations, Japan and southern Europe, though he declined to talk about specific investments and his fund.
 
As for the yuan, Hart says he’s not trading the currency -- at least for now.
 
 
He should also give up Trading. He wasted so much other trading opportunities such as Brexit, Swiss removing their CHF Pegg. Not to mention all the NFP for 7 years or the rise of AMAZON

Edited by SnoopDD, 08 September 2017 - 08:49 PM.

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