Jump to content


Photo
- - - - -

Delta Property Fund


  • Please log in to reply
200 replies to this topic

#1 Sleepwa123

Sleepwa123

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 282 posts

Posted 28 February 2022 - 05:57 PM

Looks mostly positive. Looking forward to seeing the results and hopefully a dividend
  • 0

#2 Bushmanbob

Bushmanbob

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 89 posts

Posted 28 February 2022 - 03:05 PM

https://senspdf.jse....228_S457818.pdf

 


  • 0

#3 Bushmanbob

Bushmanbob

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 89 posts

Posted 02 February 2022 - 09:25 AM

Managed to take a modest position on Delta - Now some information from them re the leases they were hoping to sign by February would be helpful.  


  • 0

#4 Bushmanbob

Bushmanbob

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 89 posts

Posted 19 January 2022 - 01:55 PM

Thanks guys for the constructive discussion going on here.

And Bushmanbob I fully agree that there are still issue to be solved before we see my price targets. But I do believe these issues are controllable in due course.

Regarding your point with the loans. They have just recently revalued all their buildings by using CBRE which is an international third party consultant. So the fair value should be reasonable at the moment.
Now also given that they produced a positive cash flow in the last period of roughly 400 Million shows you that they are generating strong results.
Banks would be stupid not to provide them long term loans. I mean they are profitable and they have the asset base as security for banks.
Also investments are valued at over 8 Billion with a very recent valuation.
Current Lt loan to refinance is roughly 4 Billion.
So I don't see a big problem here to solve this.

Comming to your next point, they have just recently been upgraded on their BBEE level. They are now on a 1. Thus puts them in advantage when it comes to securing government contracts as rebosis is only a level 3.
So I guess this will secure future leases with them.

Also collection will always remain a topic but I do not see a big issue here. But let's see how they worked on this during the last months.

Also they have some upgrading projects in place which should also upgrade their buildings. Amd more to come in my opinion.

I think they have a pretty good plan and the foundation is there now. So for me it's a waiting game but I believe that we will see a nice upswing in the share price if the full year results show momentum on the plan.

Again just my personal observation and opinion.


Again, thanks for your reply and to all the others contributions. A lot of really helpful information.
  • 0

#5 andi222

andi222

    Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 925 posts

Posted 19 January 2022 - 11:14 AM

Thanks guys for the constructive discussion going on here.

And Bushmanbob I fully agree that there are still issue to be solved before we see my price targets. But I do believe these issues are controllable in due course.

Regarding your point with the loans. They have just recently revalued all their buildings by using CBRE which is an international third party consultant. So the fair value should be reasonable at the moment.
Now also given that they produced a positive cash flow in the last period of roughly 400 Million shows you that they are generating strong results.
Banks would be stupid not to provide them long term loans. I mean they are profitable and they have the asset base as security for banks.
Also investments are valued at over 8 Billion with a very recent valuation.
Current Lt loan to refinance is roughly 4 Billion.
So I don't see a big problem here to solve this.

Comming to your next point, they have just recently been upgraded on their BBEE level. They are now on a 1. Thus puts them in advantage when it comes to securing government contracts as rebosis is only a level 3.
So I guess this will secure future leases with them.

Also collection will always remain a topic but I do not see a big issue here. But let's see how they worked on this during the last months.

Also they have some upgrading projects in place which should also upgrade their buildings. Amd more to come in my opinion.

I think they have a pretty good plan and the foundation is there now. So for me it's a waiting game but I believe that we will see a nice upswing in the share price if the full year results show momentum on the plan.

Again just my personal observation and opinion.
  • 0

#6 LarryK

LarryK

    Little Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 568 posts

Posted 19 January 2022 - 10:58 AM

I think this share will only really take off once a dividend is declared
  • 0

#7 DayTraderDad

DayTraderDad

    The Oracle

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,886 posts

Posted 18 January 2022 - 11:01 PM

Thanks DTD

I just want to be clear - I am not in any way knocking this share.  I would like to wrap my head around how likely a turnaround actually is and if the new management have what it takes to steer this in the right direction.

Yea my concerns are current/short term debt - which they say they are working to address by shifting it to Long term - better but not brilliant because it will still sit on the balance sheet (I did hear Bongi's target of LTV of 50%) Also, if I heard correctly, they are hoping to sign leases to 100 000 sqm (which is 11% of their gross lettable area) by February 2022 - "we do understand we may not win" with reference to these lease renewals.  While it is prudent to be cautious, I got the impression she was setting expectations low which to me indicates the lease renewals are either not going very well or they are not at an advanced enough stage to issue a more positive statement (the latter is probably the more likely option).
With collections at 93.3% - I would like to know how they intend collecting legacy arears as this would mean they are adding 6.7% to total arears (this can be seen when comparing interim periods 2020 and 2021 where debtors grew from R328 mill to R394 mill which represents an increase in debtors of 20%).  Bongi admits it is an issue and that they are working on it - which is different from saying it is resolved. 

It sounds like they acknowledge the concerns that most investors might share and that they are working on a plan - my question is - what is the likelihood of them executing their plan and does anyone have some insights into the new CEO Siyabonga Mbanjwa?


I dont have all the answers for me this is a turn round story which has gone around the corner and now needs more time to complete ang for me moving in the rights direction.

For me the LTV will be sorted in time big motivator is not to pay dividends and bring the percentage below the 50% also good news is they have proper external evaluations,

I agree rentals is the concerning area but on the other side they have government leases which put tbem in a different platform and cannot see government racing to cancel the leases and put the PIC holding at risk.

I agree with Andi that at 58 cents there is good value taking into account not so long ago Polly was chasing the R2,50.

To pay 58 cts for a Nav of R5,25 for me is a good deal!

I also see a good possible upside if a take over happens because they would have to pay way over the 58 cts for DLT
  • 0

#8 Bushmanbob

Bushmanbob

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 89 posts

Posted 18 January 2022 - 05:00 PM

Hi you can find all info in the link: https://www.deltafun....za/financials/

 

I found the webcast very informative.

Thanks DTD

I just want to be clear - I am not in any way knocking this share.  I would like to wrap my head around how likely a turnaround actually is and if the new management have what it takes to steer this in the right direction.

Yea my concerns are current/short term debt - which they say they are working to address by shifting it to Long term - better but not brilliant because it will still sit on the balance sheet (I did hear Bongi's target of LTV of 50%) Also, if I heard correctly, they are hoping to sign leases to 100 000 sqm (which is 11% of their gross lettable area) by February 2022 - "we do understand we may not win" with reference to these lease renewals.  While it is prudent to be cautious, I got the impression she was setting expectations low which to me indicates the lease renewals are either not going very well or they are not at an advanced enough stage to issue a more positive statement (the latter is probably the more likely option).
With collections at 93.3% - I would like to know how they intend collecting legacy arears as this would mean they are adding 6.7% to total arears (this can be seen when comparing interim periods 2020 and 2021 where debtors grew from R328 mill to R394 mill which represents an increase in debtors of 20%).  Bongi admits it is an issue and that they are working on it - which is different from saying it is resolved. 

It sounds like they acknowledge the concerns that most investors might share and that they are working on a plan - my question is - what is the likelihood of them executing their plan and does anyone have some insights into the new CEO Siyabonga Mbanjwa?


  • 0

#9 DayTraderDad

DayTraderDad

    The Oracle

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,886 posts

Posted 18 January 2022 - 12:12 PM

Hi Andi. Thanks to your posts recently on Delta I've been looking at it a lot more seriously.
I'm trying to wrap my head around how to see value in this share. It seems they are under immense, and I do mean immense pressure with current assets sitting at a fraction of current debt. They do have a reasonable total asset to liabilities ratio however that worries me because I don't trust the previous management haven't overvalued their portfolio (given their lack of integrity, this is a source of concern).

It seems many of their properties are also in need of upgrades which, if true is going to require significant Capex from a company already drowning in debt.

I am not for a moment suggesting Delta is doomed, however I'm struggling to find anything tangible to suggest they have turned the corner in a meaningful way. I'd love to invest in this, I'm just hoping someone can give me good reasons to invest - at the moment, I can't find one.

Hi you can find all info in the link: https://www.deltafun....za/financials/

 

I found the webcast very informative.


  • 0

#10 Bushmanbob

Bushmanbob

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 89 posts

Posted 17 January 2022 - 08:21 PM

Hi Andi. Thanks to your posts recently on Delta I've been looking at it a lot more seriously.
I'm trying to wrap my head around how to see value in this share. It seems they are under immense, and I do mean immense pressure with current assets sitting at a fraction of current debt. They do have a reasonable total asset to liabilities ratio however that worries me because I don't trust the previous management haven't overvalued their portfolio (given their lack of integrity, this is a source of concern).

It seems many of their properties are also in need of upgrades which, if true is going to require significant Capex from a company already drowning in debt.

I am not for a moment suggesting Delta is doomed, however I'm struggling to find anything tangible to suggest they have turned the corner in a meaningful way. I'd love to invest in this, I'm just hoping someone can give me good reasons to invest - at the moment, I can't find one.
  • 0

#11 Junz

Junz

    Member

  • Members
  • PipPip
  • 75 posts

Posted 17 January 2022 - 11:42 AM

Just hold and look away till next results. Ran my calcs and this should easy be at 3 to 5 Rands.

Just my own opinion.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app

Hi Andi

thanks for the information,

 

do you have any details to share on how you did the calcs, im just curious and would be good to know how to do something similar in the future myelf
 


  • 0

#12 andi222

andi222

    Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 925 posts

Posted 13 January 2022 - 09:21 AM

Just hold and look away till next results. Ran my calcs and this should easy be at 3 to 5 Rands.

Just my own opinion.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app
  • 0

#13 Sleepwa123

Sleepwa123

    Advanced Member

  • Members
  • PipPipPip
  • 282 posts

Posted 11 January 2022 - 06:14 PM

Seems like downward pressure on this one. Anyone got news on what might be causing this?
  • 0

#14 DayTraderDad

DayTraderDad

    The Oracle

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,886 posts

Posted 04 January 2022 - 12:47 PM

I looked at the numbers - promising if leadership keeps it tight and right. My summary is the share was trading at R8 with dividend of almost R1 a few years ago on R 10 billion worth of buildings. Value has dropped to R8.7 billion trading at R0.60. If they can get tenants into the empty units as well we should see good numbers going forward.

As a REIT they should pay dividends but due to debt this is cancelled for now right? Andi where did you read the information about dividends in 2023?

Looking forward to any feedback/opinions.
 

Hi LarryK from the Annual financial sens:

 

Distributions
In performing the Solvency and Liquidity test conducted in terms of Section 46 of the Companies Act, which takes into
consideration the working capital cash flow forecast, expected working capital requirements, capital expenditure
requirements and contracted tenant installations relating to historic lease renewals, the Board resolved not to declare
a distribution for the 2021 financial year.
Delta's ability to recommence with the payment of distributions is largely contingent on the successful resolution of
some variables, which are not all under the control of the Company:
- the ongoing uncertainty around the economic impact of COVID-19, especially the third wave of infections;
- the successful renegotiation of bulk lease renewals;
- the conclusion of the capital recycling programme;
- the reduction of the Group's vacancy rate; and
-the successful collections of outstanding arrears without having to resort to a legal process.
Should the above variables be successfully resolved, the Board conservatively estimates that distribution payment will
only be likely for the financial year ending 28 February 2023.
The conclusion of some or all of these variables, however, have the potential to significantly impact Delta's ability
to recommence paying distributions earlier.

  • 0

#15 LarryK

LarryK

    Little Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 568 posts

Posted 04 January 2022 - 04:45 AM

I looked at the numbers - promising if leadership keeps it tight and right. My summary is the share was trading at R8 with dividend of almost R1 a few years ago on R 10 billion worth of buildings. Value has dropped to R8.7 billion trading at R0.60. If they can get tenants into the empty units as well we should see good numbers going forward.

As a REIT they should pay dividends but due to debt this is cancelled for now right? Andi where did you read the information about dividends in 2023?

Looking forward to any feedback/opinions.

Thanks same for you, may 2022 be a great year!!!


  • 0

#16 DayTraderDad

DayTraderDad

    The Oracle

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,886 posts

Posted 03 January 2022 - 05:10 PM

Thanks andi and dtd. All the best in 2022!

Thanks same for you, may 2022 be a great year!!!


  • 0

#17 LarryK

LarryK

    Little Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 568 posts

Posted 03 January 2022 - 10:09 AM

Thanks andi and dtd. All the best in 2022!
  • 0

#18 DayTraderDad

DayTraderDad

    The Oracle

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • 2,886 posts

Posted 02 January 2022 - 12:06 PM

Yes still holding and picking up more at these levels.


I also buying now do thing there is great value at these prices.

Edited by DayTraderDad, 02 January 2022 - 12:06 PM.

  • 0

#19 andi222

andi222

    Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • 925 posts

Posted 01 January 2022 - 07:03 PM

Yes still holding and picking up more at these levels.
  • 0

#20 LarryK

LarryK

    Little Master

  • Members
  • PipPipPipPip
  • 568 posts

Posted 30 December 2021 - 12:31 PM

Still holding Andi? I’m starting a small position

I'm not aware of any material ones.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Sharenet Sharechat mobile app


  • 0





Sponsored by Sharenet and VPSNine Linux VPS Hosting