1645 replies to this topic

[Investment novice]

A clinical trial found that the steroid treatment reduced the death rate in patients requiring respiratory intervention as a result of Covid-19.
Shares of Aspen Pharmacare and Ascendis Health rallied yesterday after dexamethasone, a steroid treatment distributed by both companies, was found to reduce deaths in Covid-19 patients

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[Investment novice]

Don't think this impacts share.any studies already said its not the miracle cure... But still used outside of hospital.... See Andy post on all other product lines that are pumping due to covid.

One question which I can't see any info on is the impact of the margin calls on this share. It's a fantastic opportunity for us. But how do we as shareholders get protected from this.... Jse should have some protection for shareholders....



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[nosh]

From twitter

"And here is the breaking news we have all been waiting for:

@WHO

has decided to stop giving #hydroxychloroquine in its Solidarity trial.

5:54 PM · Jun 17, 2020·TweetDeck"

 

 

 

https://twitter.com/...1344726017?s=20https://twitter.com/...1344726017?s=20

[andi222]

After reading the Aspen SENS out today could 1 of the followers/guru's on this thread answer why Ascendis hasn't to date released a SENS of similar or even more pronounced detail regarding their products...?

I would like to get on this boat but I need more than an internet chat room to convince me....

Thanks in advance..

 

Hi Soutie, they have released a very detailed statement on 9 April 2020. You can read up on the impact on their products. It sounded very promising for AsC

[SB45]

I guess soon enough we will find out how they have performed when their results come out in the next few months.

[soutie]

After reading the Aspen SENS out today could 1 of the followers/guru's on this thread answer why Ascendis hasn't to date released a SENS of similar or even more pronounced detail regarding their products...?

I would like to get on this boat but I need more than an internet chat room to convince me....

Thanks in advance..

[andi222]

I checked the latest SENS on disposals and it looks like they are still holding between 3 and 4.5% of the shares. This was November 2019 so not sure if they have disposed of all shares by now. 

But this is one of the biggest reason why this share is at R1. C2C was forced to sell shares.

[Investment novice]

I could be wrong with c2c... They may have a few left, but not significant enough to move the price..... The base is nice at r1, also the PE is rediculous, and this company is so cheap, setup for an acquisition.
And as you outlined... The financials for a going concern and the debt rearrangement this is so crazy. Think market needs a set of financials similar to eoh.. Before the fire is lit. Have read lots of comments elsewhere where many say they happy to get on board... After the market starts to go crazy.... So can expect many days of pump..... Risk.... Issue..... Many may miss this boat as it could go to r4 on day one... And then the gain after to r10....... Which will still be great.... But imagine..... Getting in at r1 and riding to r10....

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[Investment novice]

Hi c2c is out which is fantastic. There is alot of interest in the share. I picked up a nice bunch at r1. 00, could not get an order at 95c.
I am happy to hold this share for a few years......

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[andi222]

Geez volumes are high today. Wonder who is still selling at this price. IN do you know if C2C has sold off their holding yet due to margin calls? Or are they still holding some shares which are currently being sold?

[Investment novice]

Does not work in end stages... But people using out of hospital and as prevention... Look sales over logic...... Either way this company has a number of product lines that are pumping now.. Not just the chloroquin.....the ecmo devices are high high end products. Many products are 40-50% margin lines.... The company sells pathology equipment required in icu by the scientific group...... And definately required to monitor any hospital patient.... They are pumping.... But don't take my word for it...... Share pruce has formed a nice base....... Lets see the future...... Also.... Note the current price is mainly from margin calls... This is a manipulated share victim to margin call dumping and poor regulation by jse..... Expect a very very nice reversal soon......

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[nosh]

Lancet and new England medicine... Google.... The editors now confess false reports forced by big pharma to discredit chloroquine.
Many countries using this..... Be great to see ascendis sales figures internationally......
We should expect more on this soon....
..... Everything setting up nicely.... Base in for this share.....

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yes , but many countries such as India and UK, coming out and saying they find it doesnt work

[andi222]

Did a technical Analysis on ASC and just noticed the massive Gap that still needs to be closed between 2.62 and 2.83. Wonder how long it will take to close this Gap. 

[Investment novice]

Lancet and new England medicine... Google.... The editors now confess false reports forced by big pharma to discredit chloroquine.
Many countries using this..... Be great to see ascendis sales figures internationally......
We should expect more on this soon....
..... Everything setting up nicely.... Base in for this share.....

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[Investment novice]

Patience..... Could even be upward in July August..

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[Milo]

Bullish hammer candle formed yesterday. I f you are all right about the upward possibility of this share it looks good.

 

[andi222]

So I'm not gonna go into too much details of how to value ASC.
But just on a high level to show how ridiculously undervalued ASC is at the moment in my opinion:
If you look at the EBITDA for the half year ASC has generated 611 Million rands. So let's assume they could generate 800 Million EBITDA for the full year. Given an EBITDA multiple of 10. Which is very conservative. You get to a value of 8 Billion. Now exclude the net debt of 5 Billion you get to a value of around 3 Billion. There are around 500 Million shares in issue.
So you get to a value of around 6 Rands per share and this is a very high level calc but its extremely conservative.
Again this is just my opinion and I will top up at levels below 1 rand.

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[Investment novice]

Ascendis will start to get warm... And we should see some momentum the weeks to come..

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[budfox]

Nope.. Buy.... Like eoh... Sat at r3 base for months..... Market unaware. Or lack of interest...if you look at eoh now and see comments you wish you would have bought.... Now when everyone is going crazy.... I am seriously thinking of offloading all there and placing here..... Ascendis pe is rediculous. They have pumped sales and have a view private deals in SA coming through.... Andi may advise his valuation but will probably be understated... Need financials....

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Agree - I topped up some more a bit earlier.

[Investment novice]

Nope.. Buy.... Like eoh... Sat at r3 base for months..... Market unaware. Or lack of interest...if you look at eoh now and see comments you wish you would have bought.... Now when everyone is going crazy.... I am seriously thinking of offloading all there and placing here..... Ascendis pe is rediculous. They have pumped sales and have a view private deals in SA coming through.... Andi may advise his valuation but will probably be understated... Need financials....

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