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#21 Pilotpilot

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 11:38 AM

 This is a guessing game...... and Sasol is so volatile. As Soutie has mentioned in another post this might be a short squeeze ....and I would agree it is the most probable scenario currently, because nothing else makes sense.

 

If this is the case, then estimating the time of the highest price would be easier than estimating the price. The institutions that shorted Sasol, needs to honor their margin calls at 12:00 midday or they need to buy back their positions before 12:00. This causes a lot of buying at this time between 11-12:00am.

 

Historically the prices of short squeezes reach their peak between 11:00 and 11:30 in the morning. It could be today at 11:30 or if we have another high close today....we could see the short term climax reached tomorrow morning.

 

I will add a small short this morning at around 11:30 and maybe add some tomorrow, but it will be a small position. I would not like to get squeezed too...

 

Got into a small short position @ R86-17.


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#22 Pilotpilot

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Posted 29 April 2020 - 09:45 AM

Where do you see this rallying to?

 This is a guessing game...... and Sasol is so volatile. As Soutie has mentioned in another post this might be a short squeeze ....and I would agree it is the most probable scenario currently, because nothing else makes sense.

 

If this is the case, then estimating the time of the highest price would be easier than estimating the price. The institutions that shorted Sasol, needs to honor their margin calls at 12:00 midday or they need to buy back their positions before 12:00. This causes a lot of buying at this time between 11-12:00am.

 

Historically the prices of short squeezes reach their peak between 11:00 and 11:30 in the morning. It could be today at 11:30 or if we have another high close today....we could see the short term climax reached tomorrow morning.

 

I will add a small short this morning at around 11:30 and maybe add some tomorrow, but it will be a small position. I would not like to get squeezed too...


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#23 nosh

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 03:50 PM

Just pure craziness and confusion......the WTI Oil price goes down by 31% ($16-58 to $11-41) since the closing of trade on Friday. Plus the Rand strengthens..........and what happens to Sasol........ it's up by 14% and climbing.

 

Oohhhh....these markets.......gotta love it.........all common sense goes out the window....... :D

 

I will update this afternoon and see what my program advises......because my advice would be wrong!!.... :D  :D

 

Just pure craziness and confusion......the WTI Oil price goes down by 31% ($16-58 to $11-41) since the closing of trade on Friday. Plus the Rand strengthens..........and what happens to Sasol........ it's up by 14% and climbing.

 

Oohhhh....these markets.......gotta love it.........all common sense goes out the window....... :D

 

I will update this afternoon and see what my program advises......because my advice would be wrong!!.... :D  :D

Here's an interesting article, correlating crude oil with Sasol (and other stocks). Looks like correlation is strong but divergence has happened before

 

https://www.linkedin...ullah-kauchali/
 


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#24 Spell Jammer

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 02:19 PM

A lot of people must have thought with a 30+% drop in the Oil price over the weekend, Sasol would be a sure thing to short this morning. An boy are they getting it wrong!....Bear trap indeed!

 

I am not convinced that this is the turning point yet....short term indicators have not broken their trend; in fact they have broken out to the top end and could spark a stronger rally. Especially when short positions need to close out tomorrow of the day after......

Where do you see this rallying to?


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#25 Pilotpilot

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 02:13 PM

I give up trying to predict the movement on this share. These movements arent based on any logical reasoning, let alone company fundamentals. One would think that this is all highly negative news for Sasol. Mr market has other ideas. Could it be the bear trap you've warned about?

 

A lot of people must have thought with a 30+% drop in the Oil price over the weekend, Sasol would be a sure thing to short this morning. An boy are they getting it wrong!....Bear trap indeed!

 

I am not convinced that this is the turning point yet....short term indicators have not broken their trend; in fact they have broken out to the top end and could spark a stronger rally. Especially when short positions need to close out tomorrow of the day after......


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#26 Spell Jammer

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 01:29 PM

Just pure craziness and confusion......the WTI Oil price goes down by 31% ($16-58 to $11-41) since the closing of trade on Friday. Plus the Rand strengthens..........and what happens to Sasol........ it's up by 14% and climbing.

 

Oohhhh....these markets.......gotta love it.........all common sense goes out the window....... :D

 

I will update this afternoon and see what my program advises......because my advice would be wrong!!.... :D  :D

 

I give up trying to predict the movement on this share. These movements arent based on any logical reasoning, let alone company fundamentals. One would think that this is all highly negative news for Sasol. Mr market has other ideas. Could it be the bear trap you've warned about?


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#27 Pilotpilot

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 01:24 PM

Closing in your R75/R78 range Pilot. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.

 

Just pure craziness and confusion......the WTI Oil price goes down by 31% ($16-58 to $11-41) since the closing of trade on Friday. Plus the Rand strengthens..........and what happens to Sasol........ it's up by 14% and climbing.

 

Oohhhh....these markets.......gotta love it.........all common sense goes out the window....... :D

 

I will update this afternoon and see what my program advises......because my advice would be wrong!!.... :D  :D


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#28 Spell Jammer

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Posted 28 April 2020 - 12:39 PM

 

 

But the scenario will probably play out, that the Bull will probably get the first shot. Maybe a breakout to the top, with a quick spike to R75/R78, and then the Bear will be hitting hard. The market always tries to confuse everyone, and this will be no different. It is the big traders battle, that could make or break them.

 

Closing in your R75/R78 range Pilot. Going to be interesting to see how this plays out.


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#29 Pilotpilot

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Posted 24 April 2020 - 09:26 AM

Target price for SOL R63-83, so not much future value to invest here.

 

It is trading very close to a sellers resistance level @R65-00, and there is a buyers support level at around R56-00. These levels are getting closer to each other each day and whichever breaks....it will be a crazy move in that direction, because it has a very wide trading range.

 

Pure gambling at this stage....but if I had to put my money on the Bull or the Bear.......I have to go with the Bear.

 

But the scenario will probably play out, that the Bull will probably get the first shot. Maybe a breakout to the top, with a quick spike to R75/R78, and then the Bear will be hitting hard. The market always tries to confuse everyone, and this will be no different. It is the big traders battle, that could make or break them.

 

I will not partake in this battle, but I might be waiting at the R75 to R78 mark, after round one, and put some money on the Bear to win!

 

Good luck to everyone....this is going to be fun to watch over the next 2-4 weeks.

And Boom!!.....a breakout above R65-00 with yesterdays' close. Bulls getting the first shot in.


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#30 Pilotpilot

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 01:09 PM

Target price for SOL R63-83, so not much future value to invest here.

 

It is trading very close to a sellers resistance level @R65-00, and there is a buyers support level at around R56-00. These levels are getting closer to each other each day and whichever breaks....it will be a crazy move in that direction, because it has a very wide trading range.

 

Pure gambling at this stage....but if I had to put my money on the Bull or the Bear.......I have to go with the Bear.

 

But the scenario will probably play out, that the Bull will probably get the first shot. Maybe a breakout to the top, with a quick spike to R75/R78, and then the Bear will be hitting hard. The market always tries to confuse everyone, and this will be no different. It is the big traders battle, that could make or break them.

 

I will not partake in this battle, but I might be waiting at the R75 to R78 mark, after round one, and put some money on the Bear to win!

 

Good luck to everyone....this is going to be fun to watch over the next 2-4 weeks.


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#31 soutie

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 01:01 PM

Afternoon Spell Jammer....

The way I read today's announcement is management are doing both what the company needs & also being honest with what the market & fund managers are looking for. This Covid situation is an opportunity to apportion blame whilst Sasol needs not own it's own very large mistakes.

Cost cutting all over the place salary reductions & a wage freeze are all part of the overall mix....Now the hedge is in place for 6mths @$32 nicely done....!

I feel the Lake Charles fiasco will eventually be the game changer it was intended...Granted I have no idea or timing....Sasol will then de-couple from the oil price & will become a global chemicals producer with some domestic oil interests.

The debt is a MASSIVE problem that won't go away with a couple of disposals....That also will take time ...& again I've no idea how long.

The current situation is a good smoke screen to cover (not hide) the dismal state David Constable left Sasol in...

As you already know I'm in & in for the long ride...But agree with you not trading this 1 only in my long term portfolio.

Cheers.


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Anyone need a heads up...!


#32 Spell Jammer

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Posted 23 April 2020 - 10:00 AM

Good luck selling Lake Charles stake at a reasonable price and in light of it not generating revenue. That's excluding the horrendous economic climate. The Sasol share price movement at the moment defies belief. 

 


Sasol now expects a loss from Lake Charles in 2020

Embattled chemicals group Sasol now expects its Lake Charles project in the US to make a loss in 2020 due to the recent oil price rout.

 

The project is expected to weigh on earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) by $50m (R950m)-$100m in its year to end-June.

Sasol had previously given guidance of positive ebitda of $50m-$100m.

Oil prices have plummeted in 2020 due to a combination of a price war between Russian and Saudi Arabia and plummeting demand due to the Covid-19 outbreak.

Sasol’s share price has lost more than 80% in 2020, with cost overruns at its Lake Charles project and an explosion at that facility earlier in the year also putting pressure on the group.

To pay down debt, the group is looking to generate cash of $6bn through cost-cutting measures, asset disposals and a possible rights issue.

Sasol said on Thursday it was cutting management salaries, with directors’ fees being reduced by between 20% and 40% and the salaries of middle to junior management being cut by between 10% and 15%.

Salary sacrifices are planned for eight months, though this would be assessed against the group’s savings targets.


Edited by Spell Jammer, 23 April 2020 - 10:04 AM.

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#33 Spell Jammer

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 08:23 PM

Damn I think there is big trouble coming. Sold out all my positions at a loss :/ Too much risk involved here at the moment. WTI futures going into negative is no good, the brent crude price might even go to 10 dollars soon. All economies are basically shut with no air travel etc. Supply has stayed the same however usage of oil worldwide dropped to all time lows. I cannot see this one turning around before end of q2


Brent crude touched $20 dollars tonight and is hovering at $21. SOL trying to sell a stake in Lake Charles during this horrific economic market explains the desperation to reduce debt.
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#34 andi222

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 11:25 AM

Damn I think there is big trouble coming. Sold out all my positions at a loss :/ Too much risk involved here at the moment. WTI futures going into negative is no good, the brent crude price might even go to 10 dollars soon. All economies are basically shut with no air travel etc. Supply has stayed the same however usage of oil worldwide dropped to all time lows. I cannot see this one turning around before end of q2


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#35 Spell Jammer

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Posted 21 April 2020 - 05:50 AM

Not all governments. European countries are lifting some restrictions and a lot more countries are going to do the same in the next few weeks as their economies just cannot handle the economic impact of a lengthy lockdown.


That may be true but social distancing will still restrict travel and I wager that at least 10-20% of the global workforce will continue to leave some elements of remote working in place. This will continue to impact demand. It will definately increase, but I doubt that things will go back to the way they were pre lockdown.
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#36 Shi

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 11:40 PM

Industrial and economic activity is grinding to a halt as governments around the globe extend shutdowns

 

Not all governments. European countries are lifting some restrictions and a lot more countries are going to do the same in the next few weeks as their economies just cannot handle the economic impact of a lengthy lockdown.


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#37 Tom

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 11:03 PM

Industrial and economic activity is grinding to a halt as governments around the globe extend shutdowns


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#38 Tom

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 11:00 PM

minus $37.63 a barrel. Sellers were actually paying buyers to take the stuff off their hands. there is so much unused oil sloshing around


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#39 Spell Jammer

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 08:49 PM

American oil crashes below 0dollars/barrel, at 1 point it was negative.... Yooohh hectic times ahead

Yep simply no demand or enough space to store it all. Oil producers are having to pay to get rid of the excess supply. The OPEC cuts are now where near sufficient to stem the supply.

What a time to be alive. Goodness me..
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#40 Lionelza1

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 08:25 PM

American oil crashes below 0dollars/barrel, at 1 point it was negative.... Yooohh hectic times ahead
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