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The GOOD, the BAD and the UGLY -Next Level Share Selection Program

Next Level The Good The Bad the Ugly Share selection the good the bad and the ugly Next Level Share Selection

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#21 Pilotpilot

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 02:48 PM

What's your take on MTN today?

 

Hi Angazi

 

I just updated all the shares on the watchlist....so this is fresh news....  :)

 

MTN is showing a new projected price of R34-00 and a trading range between R26-85 and R74-44.

 

I do believe we will test that bottom support (R26-85), as we have not formed a bottom, nor is there any divergence or momentum change yet. But time will tell.


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#22 Angazi

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Posted 20 April 2020 - 02:21 PM

Hi Soutie

 

You did good so far.... ;)

 

I updated all the data on a lot of shares and checked MTN in particular. The program is still showing downside but not as bad as was predicted. It still shows downside but only -28% from  the R51-80 level. That gives a target price of around R37-30.

 

Its trading range is between R31-64 and R79-23. It seems like it will not go down to the low levels of 23 March (R29-50), and should find support a bit higher at R31-50.

 

It might not be as rapid as the previous downturn, but we are still in a larger downtrend and in a bear trend.

 

MTN has not really shown a bottom forming, so I'm am still bearish on this one.

 

I have not gone through any financials or news to support the downside, but with Covid-19 and the slowing economy, their earnings should be impacted too.

 

What's your take on MTN today?


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#23 Pilotpilot

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 09:39 AM

After 9 weeks, the GOOD, BAD and UGLY portfolios looks as follows.

 

GOOD- Best Share Picks "Longs" by Program  +10,02%
BAD- Top 40 Benchmark  -15,08%
UGLY- Worst share picks "Shorts" by Program  -30,18%
 
Taking an overall view of the shares being monitored, it seems to be much more of the same. The Rand will be weakening at an enormous rate, as will the Gold price be increasing. As mentioned in an earlier post, the Rand should hit the top of its trading range at around R22-51 (R22-65 currently). The Gold price should reach the Top of its range within 1-3 months, given the growth rate.
 
Other shares of interest, that have now shown value, are Aspen and Steinhoff. Both have now turned into positive growth figures and Steinhoff has even triggered a buying signal, with a very good risk /reward at its lower trading range. It is also a Rand hedge share and looks to be gaining a lot of momentum recently.
 
I am very pleased with the out- and under-performance of the portfolios, as it is increasing as time continues. Ascendis Health (ASC) is now the Nr1 share in the long portfolio, with excellent growth and risk/reward projections and PSG seems to be the ugly duckling in the Short portfolio. 
 
Until week 10
Stay safe
 

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#24 Pilotpilot

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Posted 16 April 2020 - 06:40 AM

Closing all IMP shares @ R119-70 and adding to the ASC position @ R1-32 for the Long (Good) portfolio.

 

IMP still has some upside but is now trading halfway in its trading range with the worst risk reward in the portfolio. ASC has a much better Risk/Reward ratio and the highest growth rate.

 

As ASC is the best selection by the program, it also needs to be the largest holding, as to represent the program's guidance best.

 

 


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#25 soutie

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 11:42 AM

Cool bud thanks....I'll be out long before it hits the early R40's

Thanks for all the other input also.


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#26 Pilotpilot

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Posted 15 April 2020 - 11:36 AM

Hi Pilot..

1st off I'm long MTN from this morning's bounce off R48.70 area & it was a convincing 1 for me...

I don't see much more downside...My reasoning is purely T/analysis volume & price action at levels the above becoming a major 1.

My stop will be a close below R47.65.

Maybe I'm missing something....?

 

Hi Soutie

 

You did good so far.... ;)

 

I updated all the data on a lot of shares and checked MTN in particular. The program is still showing downside but not as bad as was predicted. It still shows downside but only -28% from  the R51-80 level. That gives a target price of around R37-30.

 

Its trading range is between R31-64 and R79-23. It seems like it will not go down to the low levels of 23 March (R29-50), and should find support a bit higher at R31-50.

 

It might not be as rapid as the previous downturn, but we are still in a larger downtrend and in a bear trend.

 

MTN has not really shown a bottom forming, so I'm am still bearish on this one.

 

I have not gone through any financials or news to support the downside, but with Covid-19 and the slowing economy, their earnings should be impacted too.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 15 April 2020 - 11:37 AM.

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#27 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 11:16 PM

Yea....keeping up with a 140% per day uptrend is probably not going to happen. If we do 10% everyday for 2 weeks, I won't complain.


Yup
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#28 Pilotpilot

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 10:37 PM

Would be nice if it does continue that upward trend... But... I'm getting concerned about the talks about that drug and the effects etc.... Anywayz... Interesting day 2morrow :D

 

Yea....keeping up with a 140% per day uptrend is probably not going to happen. If we do 10% everyday for 2 weeks, I won't complain.


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#29 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 09:44 PM

That's Perfect! Then there are no gaps, and the "new" uptrend can continue. ;)


Would be nice if it does continue that upward trend... But... I'm getting concerned about the talks about that drug and the effects etc.... Anywayz... Interesting day 2morrow :D
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#30 Pilotpilot

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 05:02 PM

Hit R1. 45 on the head

 

That's Perfect! Then there are no gaps, and the "new" uptrend can continue. ;)


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#31 Pilotpilot

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 05:01 PM

Hi Pilot..

1st off I'm long MTN from this morning's bounce off R48.70 area & it was a convincing 1 for me...

I don't see much more downside...My reasoning is purely T/analysis volume & price action at levels the above becoming a major 1.

My stop will be a close below R47.65.

Maybe I'm missing something....?

Hi Soutie

 

Sorry, got caught up in a lot of stuff today. I will have have a proper look and come back to you.

 

I did see that the hourly chart showed a break that is causing a strong uptrend. But I will check the longer term view.


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#32 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 04:45 PM

Hi Lionel

There are 2 gaps that needs to be closed. The daily @ R1-62 and the other at R1-45. It would be good if both closed, but the daily is the important one @ R1-62. I am happy with the R1-67 entry too.


Hit R1. 45 on the head
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#33 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 02:25 PM

Hi Lionel

There are 2 gaps that needs to be closed. The daily @ R1-62 and the other at R1-45. It would be good if both closed, but the daily is the important one @ R1-62. I am happy with the R1-67 entry too.


OK thank you
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#34 Pilotpilot

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 02:03 PM

Hi PP... U see this down as testing R1. 50 mark?

 

Hi Lionel

 

There are 2 gaps that needs to be closed. The daily @ R1-62 and the other at R1-45. It would be good if both closed, but the daily is the important one @ R1-62. I am happy with the R1-67 entry too. 


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#35 soutie

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 01:31 PM

Hi Pilot..

1st off I'm long MTN from this morning's bounce off R48.70 area & it was a convincing 1 for me...

I don't see much more downside...My reasoning is purely T/analysis volume & price action at levels the above becoming a major 1.

My stop will be a close below R47.65.

Maybe I'm missing something....?


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#36 Lionelza1

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 01:29 PM

Changed entry price for ASC to R1-67.


Hi PP... U see this down as testing R1. 50 mark?
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#37 Pilotpilot

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 01:14 PM

Making some changes to the Long and Short portfolios this morning.

 

Selling full position in AMS @ R880-00 and JBL @ R0-57 for the Long portfolio, and buying ASC @ R150 or opening price, whichever triggers first. ASC has been added to the watch list and has superior growth and risk/reward figures. This would give the long portfolio a 18,1% holding in ASC.

 

See http://www.sharechat...c/#entry291511 for more info.

 

Selling all FSR @ R40-25 and OMU @ R11-67 shares and buying MTN @ R51-42 for the short portfolio.. 

 

MTN shows the highest negative growth currently and has more downside potential than FSR and OMU.

 

If trades don't trigger at the prices given, it will be done at the day's close.

Changed entry price for ASC to R1-67.


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#38 Pilotpilot

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Posted 14 April 2020 - 08:29 AM

Making some changes to the Long and Short portfolios this morning.

 

Selling full position in AMS @ R880-00 and JBL @ R0-57 for the Long portfolio, and buying ASC @ R150 or opening price, whichever triggers first. ASC has been added to the watch list and has superior growth and risk/reward figures. This would give the long portfolio a 18,1% holding in ASC.

 

See http://www.sharechat...c/#entry291511 for more info.

 

Selling all FSR @ R40-25 and OMU @ R11-67 shares and buying MTN @ R51-42 for the short portfolio.. 

 

MTN shows the highest negative growth currently and has more downside potential than FSR and OMU.

 

If trades don't trigger at the prices given, it will be done at the day's close.


Edited by Pilotpilot, 14 April 2020 - 08:30 AM.

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#39 Pilotpilot

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Posted 13 April 2020 - 10:40 AM

@PilotPilot, thanks for the great initiative and insights. Can you clarify how one should read the following line (ZAR weakness or strength)

 

17.9689 USD/ZAR 156.9%

 

Hi Shi

 

This is Rand weakness, meaning that the Rand will further weaken at a rate of 156% per annum. We will continue with this very strong weakening trend vs the dollar. All the calculations are done to predict a growth rate and it is expressed over a year period.

 

But this does not mean that the Rand will weaken to R17-97 + 156,9% = R46-16. The 156,9% is only the rate it will change at, (Growth rate). This is a scary figure at the moment. 

 

The other important factor is the trading range, which is not shown because of confidentiality reasons.

 

I will tell you though that the trading range for the USD/ZAR is projected between R13-78 and R22-51. These are the upper and lower limits, and we are still 25% off the upper limit. What the program predicts is that we will weaken at 156% per annum rate up to the trading limit of R22-51, which should be upper limit. This value does change on a daily basis and are adjusted by the program.

 

The rate at which the Rand is weakening is a scary figure at the moment, but the program is pretty much spot on, as we had the Moody's downgrade, which is causing International fund managers to exit their positions within a 30 day period, to abide by their Fund Mandates.

 

Keep and eye out for the Gold, Platinum and other Rand hedged stocks over the next couple of weeks. They should be doing very well up until the R22-51/dollar level.

 

The other scenario is if this level gets broken. This would surely add rocket fuel to this price, and heaven behold what will happen then.

 

Hope this explains it.  


Edited by Pilotpilot, 13 April 2020 - 10:41 AM.

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#40 Shi

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Posted 13 April 2020 - 09:15 AM

@PilotPilot, thanks for the great initiative and insights. Can you clarify how one should read the following line (ZAR weakness or strength)

 

17.9689 USD/ZAR 156.9%


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