@PilotPilot, thanks for the great initiative and insights. Can you clarify how one should read the following line (ZAR weakness or strength)
17.9689 USD/ZAR 156.9%
This is Rand weakness, meaning that the Rand will further weaken at a rate of 156% per annum. We will continue with this very strong weakening trend vs the dollar. All the calculations are done to predict a growth rate and it is expressed over a year period.
But this does not mean that the Rand will weaken to R17-97 + 156,9% = R46-16. The 156,9% is only the rate it will change at, (Growth rate). This is a scary figure at the moment.
The other important factor is the trading range, which is not shown because of confidentiality reasons.
I will tell you though that the trading range for the USD/ZAR is projected between R13-78 and R22-51. These are the upper and lower limits, and we are still 25% off the upper limit. What the program predicts is that we will weaken at 156% per annum rate up to the trading limit of R22-51, which should be upper limit. This value does change on a daily basis and are adjusted by the program.
The rate at which the Rand is weakening is a scary figure at the moment, but the program is pretty much spot on, as we had the Moody's downgrade, which is causing International fund managers to exit their positions within a 30 day period, to abide by their Fund Mandates.
Keep and eye out for the Gold, Platinum and other Rand hedged stocks over the next couple of weeks. They should be doing very well up until the R22-51/dollar level.
The other scenario is if this level gets broken. This would surely add rocket fuel to this price, and heaven behold what will happen then.
Hope this explains it.
Edited by Pilotpilot, 13 April 2020 - 10:41 AM.