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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94619]

Tue, 15 May 2012 16:47

Messages: 350
Registered: August 2009
Location: Sandton

Senior Member

The shares have gone ex-rights. the market is pricing in the effect of awarding rights shares at R6 each. This is to be expected and we will see further downside.

If you are a Curro shareholder you will be reciving your rights (or NPLs) shortly and therafter the opportunity to exercise these rights.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94622]

Tue, 15 May 2012 17:35

Messages: 368
Registered: October 2011
Location: M.College

Senior Member

Saints wrote on Tue, 15 May 2012 16:47

The shares have gone ex-rights. the market is pricing in the effect of awarding rights shares at R6 each. This is to be expected and we will see further downside.

If you are a Curro shareholder you will be reciving your rights (or NPLs) shortly and therafter the opportunity to exercise these rights.

So you would say that a fair value for curro is around R8?

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94802]

Fri, 18 May 2012 16:46

Messages: 292
Registered: June 2007

Senior Member

Directors still selling. This time without using the excuse they used the last time.

Very small trading volumes. Normally rights issues has big speculative buyers.
..... so sorry ..... but we are about to see some hot air fading out of a share price of a company that is actually good. Just very overpriced.
Paying R6 + a right to take up R2.29 in book value per share.

Lets rather start our own school co.
Buy building for R5m
Call it a school
and sell shares in it for 4 times the cost.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94933]

Tue, 22 May 2012 13:29

Messages: 587
Registered: January 2009

Senior Member

Kasimir wrote on Fri, 18 May 2012 16:46

Directors still selling. This time without using the excuse they used the last time.

Very small trading volumes. Normally rights issues has big speculative buyers.
..... so sorry ..... but we are about to see some hot air fading out of a share price of a company that is actually good. Just very overpriced.
Paying R6 + a right to take up R2.29 in book value per share.

Lets rather start our own school co.
Buy building for R5m
Call it a school
and sell shares in it for 4 times the cost.

Directors are selling CUHN to enable them to exercise their rights.

Probably support at 1000 - Schools are a number game - with the rights issue COH was able to generate a lot of cash debt free - I think the big losers are the directors selling rights - they get diluted.

A building is not a school - you need a school license, zoning rights, good Gr.12 results spanning a few years (at least an 8 year exercise building up your numbers), very good relations with the community, etc. High entry costs - but when the numbers arrive!!!

The table is set - a lot of schools need funding to expand - that is the gap COH is currently filling.

Enjoy the ride.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94942]

Tue, 22 May 2012 15:55

boerboel
Messages: 935
Registered: October 2010

Senior Member

stock is way too expensive

if it was not for the fact that you cannot short the stock and is extremely tightly held it would have been back to r8.00

this could be very bad for psg in the long run

this is no capitec

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94944]

Tue, 22 May 2012 16:10

Messages: 3324
Registered: October 2006

Senior Member

Ja boerboel, 12 years ago people said Capitec is bad for PSG and its gonna be an epic failure... Look how that turned out..

Let's give PSG/Curro's management a chance to actually get the place going before commenting. Can't really provide a valuation on them now.

Obviously their expenses are far outstripping their income since they expanding as quickly as they can. Buying and building schools with about 6 earmarked for opening next year..

I'm a patient man and I am willing to wait a few years to see what COH comes up with..

Gaan groot of gaan huis toe

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94945]

Tue, 22 May 2012 16:12

boerboel
Messages: 935
Registered: October 2010

Senior Member

curro is costing psg money

capitec was a moneyspinner from year2

but as we all know it takes 2 to make a market

good luck

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #94969]

Tue, 22 May 2012 22:47

Messages: 23
Registered: August 2010

Junior Member

I'm very bullish on Curro. It seems to me like a logical supply/demand formula that's got tremendous financial backing and based on historical fact, I can't see the Mouton's making a hash of this.

But I don't like to predict things so Mum's the word.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #95393]

Wed, 30 May 2012 06:46

lwv1

Messages: 6
Registered: April 2010

Junior Member

I have got R50k that I want to invest long term (10-15years) for one of my children (now 6). Would curro be a good call?

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #95394]

Wed, 30 May 2012 07:15

Messages: 262
Registered: July 2009

Senior Member

No, i would go with something like Satrix personally. I own a fair amount of COH shares, and am a fan, but if was personally investing for a child i would go straight into a index tracker like Satrix.

My personal view is that it is more defensive and requires less admin. But would be interested to see what other people think.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #95396]

Wed, 30 May 2012 07:49

boerboel
Messages: 935
Registered: October 2010

Senior Member

i agree with handy andy

satrix a lot more sensible option

or buy 2 cheap blue chip shares like mtn,anglos or billiton

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #95398]

Wed, 30 May 2012 08:54

Messages: 23
Registered: August 2010

Junior Member

A blue chip would be more sensible for long term wealth creation, which is what you're looking at for your kid. I have no interest in buying ETFs, so I couldn't comment on satrix.

If you'd like some numerical reference, I bought up R50k worth of Remgro and R50k worth of SABMiller 3 years ago and their both worth more than R90k now in stock value.

To be honest you'd be hard pushed to make a wrong decision when it comes to JSE blue chips. There are some very high quality blue chips available. Just avoid any government influenced stock like telkom, sasol etc. They are known for stagnating or worse.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #95401]

Wed, 30 May 2012 09:12

hdbb

Messages: 2222
Registered: August 2009
Location: By the sea

Senior Member

Id look to BIL for long term..hardly any debt, good divi and pretty cheap at current levels..Also not too heavily reliant on SA mines as most of their mines are in Ozz and other parts of the world. Also a rand hedge!!

hdb
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #95402]

Wed, 30 May 2012 09:13

Messages: 350
Registered: August 2009
Location: Sandton

Senior Member

On the contrary PSG itself could pose as an medium to long term investment option

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #95677]

Mon, 04 June 2012 18:29

Messages: 587
Registered: January 2009

Senior Member

Hmm - not a lot - but counter trending Wink

Wink

COH
COH/COHN - Curro Holdings Limited - Dealing in Curro Holdings Limited shares
Curro Holdings Limited
Incorporated in the Republic of South Africa
Registration Number 1998/025801/06
JSE Share Code: COH
JSE Share Code: NPL's - COHN
ISIN: ZAE000156253
ISIN: NPL's - ZAE000165247
("Curro" or "the Company")
DEALING IN CURRO HOLDINGS LIMITED SHARES
In compliance with rules 3.63 to 3.74 of the JSE Limited's Listings
Requirements, the following information is disclosed:
NAME OF DIRECTOR JA le Roux
STATUS:EXECUTIVE/NON-EXECUTIVE Non-executive
TYPE OF SECURITIES Nil paid letters
CLASS OF SECURITIES Ordinary shares
DATE OF TRANSACTION 31 May 2012
CENTS PER SHARE 420
NUMBER OF SECURITIES TRANSACTED 1 820
TOTAL RAND VALUE OF SECURITIES R7 644.00
NAME OF ASSOCIATE Die Le Roux Familietrust
RELATIONSHIP WITH DIRECTOR Director is a trustee and
beneficiary of the trust
NATURE OF TRANSACTION Acquisition of rights (On-market
transaction)

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #97353]

Wed, 04 July 2012 18:16

Messages: 416
Registered: June 2012
Location: Everywhere

Senior Member

Quite a pop today on the back of a very interesting deal.

gamma

Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #97359]

Wed, 04 July 2012 21:11

Messages: 130
Registered: June 2012

Senior Member

I must have looked at curro 5 times in the last 2 months, and I still can't find a compelling reason to buy them.

Stock picking is an art. Embarassed

Embarassed

[Updated on: Wed, 04 July 2012 21:13]

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #97361]

Wed, 04 July 2012 22:41

gcr

Messages: 1012
Registered: May 2007
Location: Randparkridge

Senior Member

Here's what I can't fathom with Curro - the spin doctors do a magnificent job though:-
$ They have just entered a deal with OMSA and PIC to build schools and for the less affluent parents in SA - will limit acceptance to children of parents earning up to R 200,000 p.a. with school fees of between R 900 and R 1350 per month - thus school fees at the higher income level will be 7.8% of salary; as the salary falls the monthly fees will but is set at no lower than R 900 p.m. - thus parents could be paying more than 7.8% on school fees, not sure that there are too many people who will be able to absorb these fees.
$ Curro need to find land and build schools so this could take years to get to fruition and they would use either their own capital or the joint venture capital without any form of income until such time as school fees start coming in
$ my understanding is that Curro have adequate funds and at the moment are battling with the acquiring of suitable land

Now I see 2 arguments here
1) acquire shares in Curro now and sit it out for 3 years before you see any possible dividend stream (unless they pay dividends out of cash raised)
2) Wait 2 years and then buy into the share - you may well pay a premium for the share but that's the risk you have to decide on versus buying now and holding or waiting and then paying a higher ante
Personally I will consider this share in a couple of years time

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #97362]

Wed, 04 July 2012 23:00

Messages: 416
Registered: June 2012
Location: Everywhere

Senior Member

gcr wrote on Wed, 04 July 2012 22:41

Here's what I can't fathom with Curro - the spin doctors do a magnificent job though:-
$ They have just entered a deal with OMSA and PIC to build schools and for the less affluent parents in SA - will limit acceptance to children of parents earning up to R 200,000 p.a. with school fees of between R 900 and R 1350 per month - thus school fees at the higher income level will be 7.8% of salary; as the salary falls the monthly fees will but is set at no lower than R 900 p.m. - thus parents could be paying more than 7.8% on school fees, not sure that there are too many people who will be able to absorb these fees.
$ Curro need to find land and build schools so this could take years to get to fruition and they would use either their own capital or the joint venture capital without any form of income until such time as school fees start coming in
$ my understanding is that Curro have adequate funds and at the moment are battling with the acquiring of suitable land

Now I see 2 arguments here
1) acquire shares in Curro now and sit it out for 3 years before you see any possible dividend stream (unless they pay dividends out of cash raised)
2) Wait 2 years and then buy into the share - you may well pay a premium for the share but that's the risk you have to decide on versus buying now and holding or waiting and then paying a higher ante
Personally I will consider this share in a couple of years time

Makes sense if you are looking for a dividend play. I believe that most investors are looking at Curro rather as a growth play. In fact, I personally wouldnt want to see any dividends until the market is close to saturated. Invest the income in expansion now and milk the cow later. In any event, there are far better divi paying stocks on the market right now if that's what one is looking for.

Do not try and bend the market. That's impossible. Instead... only try to realize the truth. Then you'll see, that it is not the market that bends, it is only yourself.

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Re: Curro, the next Capitec [message #97364]

Thu, 05 July 2012 06:29

Messages: 130
Registered: June 2012

Senior Member

gcr wrote on Wed, 04 July 2012 22:41

Here's what I can't fathom with Curro - the spin doctors do a magnificent job though:-
$ They have just entered a deal with OMSA and PIC to build schools and for the less affluent parents in SA - will limit acceptance to children of parents earning up to R 200,000 p.a. with school fees of between R 900 and R 1350 per month - thus school fees at the higher income level will be 7.8% of salary; as the salary falls the monthly fees will but is set at no lower than R 900 p.m. - thus parents could be paying more than 7.8% on school fees, not sure that there are too many people who will be able to absorb these fees.
$ Curro need to find land and build schools so this could take years to get to fruition and they would use either their own capital or the joint venture capital without any form of income until such time as school fees start coming in
$ my understanding is that Curro have adequate funds and at the moment are battling with the acquiring of suitable land

Now I see 2 arguments here
1) acquire shares in Curro now and sit it out for 3 years before you see any possible dividend stream (unless they pay dividends out of cash raised)
2) Wait 2 years and then buy into the share - you may well pay a premium for the share but that's the risk you have to decide on versus buying now and holding or waiting and then paying a higher ante
Personally I will consider this share in a couple of years time

You could also buy some PSG shares in the meantime.

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