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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95119] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 15:19   |
bulls 
Messages: 1802
Registered: January 2006 |
Senior Member |
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| @sirgrantfleming wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:07 | | hdbb wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 14:52 | If AGL falls below R250.00 sell your car and buy AGL 
However if BIL falls below R200.00 sell your house and buy BILL 
For those who want to back resources and are risk prone, id rather look at the JUNIOR MINERS thread and buy any of those at their bargain giveaway prices!!!
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hdbb - i'm holding a lot of agl, if it hits 263 i'm stopping out (i've been adding since 300) - thoughts on not stopping vs riding it, I mean it is AGL...? Should I just keep adding 100 every R10 it drops?
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to me its just typical of human nature.buy high, average down ,it goes even lower then the panic sets in and you sell at the low of the year when its at its most oversold,and feel so relieved when you see agl the next day down a further 0.69% and you feel totally convinced that you made the right decision.
then the next day it rallies 2% and a week later its up 10%,a month later its 20% UP and 6 months down the line its making new highs.
then you kick yourself and decide well the trend is now up and you pile in big time,taking a loan against your house.
then the share starts pulling back and its now down 10% off its highs so you take another loan out and borrow some more from another brother and pile in even bigger,only to see the share now down another 15% over 3 months.
6 months later its down even more,and after averaging down for so long you just cant take it and decide to sell at a huge loss and feel so relieved that you got out just in time because the next day agl is down another 0.69%.
less yada yada more ching ching!!
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95127] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 15:44 |
@sirgrantfleming
Messages: 601
Registered: October 2010 |
Senior Member |
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| hdbb wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:28 | | @sirgrantfleming wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:07 | | hdbb wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 14:52 | If AGL falls below R250.00 sell your car and buy AGL
However if BIL falls below R200.00 sell your house and buy BILL
For those who want to back resources and are risk prone, id rather look at the JUNIOR MINERS thread and buy any of those at their bargain giveaway prices!!!
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hdbb - i'm holding a lot of agl, if it hits 263 i'm stopping out (i've been adding since 300) - thoughts on not stopping vs riding it, I mean it is AGL...? Should I just keep adding 100 every R10 it drops?
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Grant this is a long term investment thread and not a cfd call..
If you buying AGL at current for long term then i say hang on and wait.. Should recover and you should be in the money come 3 to 5 yrs time.
If you refering to CFDs then you should have listened in my CFD thread when i said Short all resource stocks about 6 weeks ago!!!
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Hmmm - little bit of both I guess, have some cash to put in long term, and holding cfd's.
OK - so long term, will add, short term will switch threads.
Twitter: @sirgrantfleming
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95143] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 17:49 |
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| bulls wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:19 | | @sirgrantfleming wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:07 | | hdbb wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 14:52 | If AGL falls below R250.00 sell your car and buy AGL
However if BIL falls below R200.00 sell your house and buy BILL
For those who want to back resources and are risk prone, id rather look at the JUNIOR MINERS thread and buy any of those at their bargain giveaway prices!!!
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hdbb - i'm holding a lot of agl, if it hits 263 i'm stopping out (i've been adding since 300) - thoughts on not stopping vs riding it, I mean it is AGL...? Should I just keep adding 100 every R10 it drops?
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to me its just typical of human nature.buy high, average down ,it goes even lower then the panic sets in and you sell at the low of the year when its at its most oversold,and feel so relieved when you see agl the next day down a further 0.69% and you feel totally convinced that you made the right decision.
then the next day it rallies 2% and a week later its up 10%,a month later its 20% UP and 6 months down the line its making new highs.
then you kick yourself and decide well the trend is now up and you pile in big time,taking a loan against your house.
then the share starts pulling back and its now down 10% off its highs so you take another loan out and borrow some more from another brother and pile in even bigger,only to see the share now down another 15% over 3 months.
6 months later its down even more,and after averaging down for so long you just cant take it and decide to sell at a huge loss and feel so relieved that you got out just in time because the next day agl is down another 0.69%.
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You took the words out of my mouth. I keep doing this time and time again. I have lost megillions doing just that.
Like now. The technicals show big time "SELL" so do the fundamentals so I'm mostly in cash now and waiting. Did this before many times just to see the stocks going up past the point where you sold them. Last time I told my wife that I will not sell again. Fear took over and I sold AGAIN. Maybe this time !!!
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95150] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 19:06 |
FA
Messages: 127
Registered: May 2012 |
Senior Member |
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orca, i did exactly the same buy and sell and made no money.Now i hold shares like PNC,MTA,EOH,CML etc and made massiv gains the last 2 years even with the pullback of CML still way up in the profits. Resource stocks are very volatile big ups and downs and great for trading like AGL,BIL,HAR etc. Will see at the year end which bring better returns investing or trading.
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95153] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 19:34 |
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| FA wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 19:06 | orca, i did exactly the same buy and sell and made no money.Now i hold shares like PNC,MTA,EOH,CML etc and made massiv gains the last 2 years even with the pullback of CML still way up in the profits. Resource stocks are very volatile big ups and downs and great for trading like AGL,BIL,HAR etc. Will see at the year end which bring better returns investing or trading.
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Thanks for those shares again. Must still check out EOH. I trade on the main board. Sold all today as the news is rather bad. Greece to exit next year and the UK now officially in a Double Dip recession.
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95154] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 19:58 |
FA
Messages: 127
Registered: May 2012 |
Senior Member |
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i agree, greece will have to leave the eurozone sooner or later and perhaps some other south european countries as well.
i have added recently LHC to my longterm portfolio and up 10% in a very short time and been tracking IVT, very sound but low volumes.
check it out and let me know your thoughts.
i am in a similar position as you are, have cashed in my RA's and unit trusts and invested all in the JSE and so far have outperformed any asset manager.
i am a newcommer to this forum but have been reading the posts for the last 2 years, great info.
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95159] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 20:51 |
Investor1
Messages: 270
Registered: April 2012 |
Senior Member |
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LHC is a gem, i bought at 1382 - been holding ever since 
It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do. - JL
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95161] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 21:21 |
Investor1
Messages: 270
Registered: April 2012 |
Senior Member |
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| delta66 wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 21:15 | would you say buying in @current value is worth it? looks like its been on a strong up cycle lately. what's the RSI on it?
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its being fairly valued on RSI which is close to 70 and and overbought stoch aswel. although i hardly see big dips on this one - keeping in mind it is a new stock and hasnt been around for long.
It is what people actually did in the stock market that counted – not what they said they were going to do. - JL
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95164] |
Thu, 24 May 2012 22:30 |
@sirgrantfleming
Messages: 601
Registered: October 2010 |
Senior Member |
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| bulls wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:19 | | @sirgrantfleming wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:07 | | hdbb wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 14:52 | If AGL falls below R250.00 sell your car and buy AGL
However if BIL falls below R200.00 sell your house and buy BILL
For those who want to back resources and are risk prone, id rather look at the JUNIOR MINERS thread and buy any of those at their bargain giveaway prices!!!
|
hdbb - i'm holding a lot of agl, if it hits 263 i'm stopping out (i've been adding since 300) - thoughts on not stopping vs riding it, I mean it is AGL...? Should I just keep adding 100 every R10 it drops?
|
to me its just typical of human nature.buy high, average down ,it goes even lower then the panic sets in and you sell at the low of the year when its at its most oversold,and feel so relieved when you see agl the next day down a further 0.69% and you feel totally convinced that you made the right decision.
then the next day it rallies 2% and a week later its up 10%,a month later its 20% UP and 6 months down the line its making new highs.
then you kick yourself and decide well the trend is now up and you pile in big time,taking a loan against your house.
then the share starts pulling back and its now down 10% off its highs so you take another loan out and borrow some more from another brother and pile in even bigger,only to see the share now down another 15% over 3 months.
6 months later its down even more,and after averaging down for so long you just cant take it and decide to sell at a huge loss and feel so relieved that you got out just in time because the next day agl is down another 0.69%.
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Yeah bulls, although the one thing i've learnt is "don't panic" - at this stage it is get as much advice as possible, market could tank and pulling up is logical, else hold ground and watch. 263/4 on AGL has always been my inflection point, if i sell at 263 and it bounces that day or next week then so be it - but it was a set level, not an emotional decision which is key.
Twitter: @sirgrantfleming
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95172] |
Fri, 25 May 2012 06:43 |
bulls
Messages: 1802
Registered: January 2006 |
Senior Member |
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| @sirgrantfleming wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 22:30 | | bulls wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:19 | | @sirgrantfleming wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 15:07 | | hdbb wrote on Thu, 24 May 2012 14:52 | If AGL falls below R250.00 sell your car and buy AGL
However if BIL falls below R200.00 sell your house and buy BILL
For those who want to back resources and are risk prone, id rather look at the JUNIOR MINERS thread and buy any of those at their bargain giveaway prices!!!
|
hdbb - i'm holding a lot of agl, if it hits 263 i'm stopping out (i've been adding since 300) - thoughts on not stopping vs riding it, I mean it is AGL...? Should I just keep adding 100 every R10 it drops?
|
to me its just typical of human nature.buy high, average down ,it goes even lower then the panic sets in and you sell at the low of the year when its at its most oversold,and feel so relieved when you see agl the next day down a further 0.69% and you feel totally convinced that you made the right decision.
then the next day it rallies 2% and a week later its up 10%,a month later its 20% UP and 6 months down the line its making new highs.
then you kick yourself and decide well the trend is now up and you pile in big time,taking a loan against your house.
then the share starts pulling back and its now down 10% off its highs so you take another loan out and borrow some more from another brother and pile in even bigger,only to see the share now down another 15% over 3 months.
6 months later its down even more,and after averaging down for so long you just cant take it and decide to sell at a huge loss and feel so relieved that you got out just in time because the next day agl is down another 0.69%.
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Yeah bulls, although the one thing i've learnt is "don't panic" - at this stage it is get as much advice as possible, market could tank and pulling up is logical, else hold ground and watch. 263/4 on AGL has always been my inflection point, if i sell at 263 and it bounces that day or next week then so be it - but it was a set level, not an emotional decision which is key.
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the dow still has a lower target,as does the alsi so there is a chance agl could reak that important level.
however if it does(bil will also go lower than the current price)
it will def be a med term buy.
less yada yada more ching ching!!
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95225] |
Fri, 25 May 2012 15:35 |
bulls
Messages: 1802
Registered: January 2006 |
Senior Member |
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has anybody looked at cadiz?
less yada yada more ching ching!!
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95228] |
Fri, 25 May 2012 15:43 |
@sirgrantfleming
Messages: 601
Registered: October 2010 |
Senior Member |
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| bulls wrote on Fri, 25 May 2012 06:43 |
however if it does(bil will also go lower than the current price)
it will def be a med term buy.
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Bulls - would you take BIL over AGL on a medium term at current levels? I would think AGL going back to 350 trumps BIL going back to 290? What you reckon? (1 to 3 yrs being term)
Twitter: @sirgrantfleming
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| Re: Long term investment portfolio [message #95232] |
Fri, 25 May 2012 15:58 |
bulls
Messages: 1802
Registered: January 2006 |
Senior Member |
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| @sirgrantfleming wrote on Fri, 25 May 2012 15:43 | | bulls wrote on Fri, 25 May 2012 06:43 |
however if it does(bil will also go lower than the current price)
it will def be a med term buy.
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Bulls - would you take BIL over AGL on a medium term at current levels? I would think AGL going back to 350 trumps BIL going back to 290? What you reckon? (1 to 3 yrs being term)
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difficult one.i think bil has a bigger range of products inc oil.
i think one needs to look at comparative charts and see which one outperforms the other,which will be too late by the time you want to invest.
also theres been talk about xtrata looking to"take over agl" but i dont think that will happen now.(but you never know)
i think my money for the long term would be on agl as well.
less yada yada more ching ching!!
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, you got to be smiling ear to ear on that stock..just had a quick look @52 week range and its phenomenal, a steady flow with no sudden drops. damn! i'm tempted to buy 2morrow to be honest 
