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Oil [message #27271]

Fri, 18 July 2008 12:18

LWVi

Messages: 41
Registered: September 2007
Location: Western Cape

Member

I would like to hear some views and opinions on oil.

What will happen with the oil price in the short, medium and long term? Will it ever again drop below $100? What does world resources look like?

[Updated on: Fri, 18 July 2008 12:26]

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Re: Oil [message #27272]

Fri, 18 July 2008 12:19

LWVi

Messages: 41
Registered: September 2007
Location: Western Cape

Member

Will oil ever drop below $100?[ 11 vote(s) ]
1.	Yes	4 / 36%
2.	No	7 / 64%

No Message Body

[Updated on: Fri, 18 July 2008 12:27]

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Re: Oil [message #27273]

Fri, 18 July 2008 12:38

bulls

Messages: 502
Registered: January 2006

Senior Member

my broker is calling oil as follows over the medium term:
137 134 123 118 thats where the support lies and thats the lower targets going forward.
another anylist says oil has a medium target of about 165$.

in the year 3000 Youtube,Twitter and Facebook will merge into one big time-wasting website called YouTwitFace!!

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Re: Oil [message #27274]

Fri, 18 July 2008 13:20

contango

Messages: 1322
Registered: October 2004

Senior Member

Long term trading range of $100 - $150. Above $150 and there's too much demand destruction as drivers stop using gasoline etc. Below $100 and there's not enough incentive to bring on new production at current costs. All depends on how we modify our need for oil going forward and whether China continues to grow in the old-economy way i.e. oil intensive.

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Re: Oil [message #27275]

Fri, 18 July 2008 14:15

gong

Messages: 7
Registered: May 2008

Junior Member

will be interesting to see where sasol hedge x % of their production for the next year
My guess is 95 USD

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Re: Oil [message #27276]

Fri, 18 July 2008 15:57

Kasimir

Messages: 233
Registered: June 2007

Senior Member

When oil goes up 5 dollar the discussion is about breaching 200.
When oil goes down 5 dollars ... the topic is 100 dollars.

No complaints ... I like the topic ... but it tells me a bit of the psychoogy of people like you and me ... we are the drivers of the market.

My concern with the volatility is that companies that have oil as input build their budgets on 140 + 20 reserve.
Producers of oil do their planning on 95 dollars as suggested in this thread.

That is a massive gap. I thought authorities and structures are their to make things smoother. Looks like they failed dismally. Only loser is consumer.

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Re: Oil [message #40868]

Fri, 21 August 2009 14:21

Cut Loss

Messages: 314
Registered: July 2008
Location: PTA

Senior Member

Oil is on track for a 7.3 percent gain this week, and was last at this level on October 21, 2008 when it closed at $75.22 a barrel on its way down from a record peak above $147.

Imagine the oil price in 2020.

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Re: Oil [message #40872]

Fri, 21 August 2009 14:34

KOUS

Messages: 44
Registered: August 2009
Location: Sandton

Member

the biggest entity that trades oil is goldman so read their reports and just do the opposite..... Smile

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Re: Oil [message #40873]

Fri, 21 August 2009 14:36

Pothole

Messages: 1969
Registered: September 2007

Senior Member

LWVi wrote on Fri, 18 July 2008 12:19

It won't quote....
But though the 18 July 2008 contribution above is quite hilarious (with the advantage of the perfect science of hindsight of course)....
"Will ever drop below........"

[Updated on: Fri, 21 August 2009 14:39]

The Share Market is NOT driven by Fundamentals.....
Greed, Fear, ..... Patience!!

*** Please do own research ***

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Re: Oil [message #40888]

Fri, 21 August 2009 16:37

KOUS

Messages: 44
Registered: August 2009
Location: Sandton

Member

well Pothole OLD MAN MARKET has a way to humble even the most clever of us, every moment is unique and I just grin when ppl say that if we see this that and that is going to happen, it just do not work that way.

It only takes one trader where ever he/she is in this world to make the share/future go the other way you expect.

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Re: Oil (Brent Crude) [message #42085]

Wed, 09 September 2009 15:29

jaDEB

Messages: 1061
Registered: February 2006
Location: Boksburg

Senior Member

Brent Crude (End Sept)[ 19 vote(s) ]
1.	75 above	5 / 26%
2.	70 to 75	10 / 53%
3.	65 to 70	1 / 5%
4.	65 below	3 / 16%

No Message Body

jaDEB

"Sometimes the Dragon wins..."

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Re: Oil (Brent Crude) [message #44508]

Thu, 15 October 2009 16:43

Cut Loss

Messages: 314
Registered: July 2008
Location: PTA

Senior Member

Oil $85 end of year?

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Re: Oil (Brent Crude) [message #44510]

Thu, 15 October 2009 17:10

jaDEB

Messages: 1061
Registered: February 2006
Location: Boksburg

Senior Member

80 USD year end

jaDEB

"Sometimes the Dragon wins..."

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Re: Oil [message #44514]

Thu, 15 October 2009 17:54

tank

Messages: 2005
Registered: September 2007
Location: Richards Bay

Senior Member

my guess, year end 65

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Re: Oil [message #44524]

Thu, 15 October 2009 22:32

contango

Messages: 1322
Registered: October 2004

Senior Member

The way it reacted to the figures today it will be $80 next week!!!

_{Disclaimer:

This does not constitute guidance or a transaction proposal. You should not place any reliance on it when entering into transactions.}

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Re: Oil [message #44534]

Fri, 16 October 2009 07:42

tank

Messages: 2005
Registered: September 2007
Location: Richards Bay

Senior Member

yip, i agree but i reckon we'll have a nice slide down again, in general

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Re: Oil [message #44553]

Fri, 16 October 2009 12:26

happiesmiles007

Messages: 140
Registered: February 2008
Location: london

Senior Member

Will the onset of winter in the northern hemisphere push the oil price higher?

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Re: Oil [message #44561]

Fri, 16 October 2009 13:17

tank

Messages: 2005
Registered: September 2007
Location: Richards Bay

Senior Member

usualy does

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Re: Oil [message #44562]

Fri, 16 October 2009 13:24

happiesmiles007

Messages: 140
Registered: February 2008
Location: london

Senior Member

ok then - i have just shorted oil - sense/no sense - huh!!!???

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Re: Oil [message #44608]

Sun, 18 October 2009 08:18

cheeta

Messages: 14
Registered: January 2009
Location: pretoria

Junior Member

still short in oil happysmiles007

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