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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #40255]

Thu, 13 August 2009 15:22

vtownbarries

Messages: 458
Registered: July 2007
Location: Meyerton

Senior Member

Nice little ol' 50 points rate cut Very Happy

I am reasonably certain that a share will either go up or down if it doesnt stay flat.

(All posts are pure conjecture)

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #40257]

Thu, 13 August 2009 15:47

contango

Messages: 1322
Registered: October 2004

Senior Member

Must be Tito's parting gift to the unions etc... Not complaining - works for my mortgage.

_{Disclaimer:

This does not constitute guidance or a transaction proposal. You should not place any reliance on it when entering into transactions.}

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #40262]

Thu, 13 August 2009 16:15

Kamanu

Messages: 101
Registered: September 2008
Location: Botswana

Senior Member

jaDED;I am still waiting for your reaction to the interest rate cut!I might be out here in the land of the OKAVANGO DELTA;but my crystal ball,apparently because of the clear sky we enjoy over here, can easily see all the cats in Tito's bag.
Waiting for my Moet and Chandon;and pls rush it in with the next available SEABELO transport off JHB Park Station!

Lets work it!

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #40318]

Fri, 14 August 2009 10:46

Cut Loss

Messages: 314
Registered: July 2008
Location: PTA

Senior Member

The winners BIKERTOTHEBONE and KAMANU were right with 50 basis point cut. 25% hit rate on this forum with this prediction.

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43073]

Mon, 21 September 2009 13:18

PowerStocks

Messages: 239
Registered: May 2009

Senior Member

Thought we could keep this same thread to catalogue sharechat predictions over time.

Any views on MPC descision tommorow? Strong rand and current account lean toward a cut but feeling seems to be it will stay put. Our MPI index for our Repo Rate Timing Model is due to drop 1 point tommorow as effect of 3rd rate cut is eased out - would be nice if a cut could neutralise it
index.php/fa/1577/0/

Attachment: MPI18SEPT09.gif
(Size: 12.55KB, Downloaded 528 time(s))

PowerStocks Research Corp
www.powerstocks.co.za
"The JSE like you've never seen before!"

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43075]

Mon, 21 September 2009 13:34

tank

Messages: 2005
Registered: September 2007
Location: Richards Bay

Senior Member

I would love a 50 point cut, but "South Africa's retail sales contracted by less than expected in July due to the impact of previous interest rate cuts, and adding to arguments for the central bank to leave rates unchanged this week",
I reckon we'll have to wait a while longer for the next cut, maybe when the new governor steps in

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43082]

Mon, 21 September 2009 14:19

contango

Messages: 1322
Registered: October 2004

Senior Member

Rand strength bodes well for a cut but ZAR back above 7.50 now so not sure i.e. 7.50 is SARB's key level for ZAR support. I think it's a 50/50 thing and personally I'd cut by 50bps if I were the SARB. Don't want to be behind the curve again if things start getting nasty again.

_{Disclaimer:

This does not constitute guidance or a transaction proposal. You should not place any reliance on it when entering into transactions.}

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43086]

Mon, 21 September 2009 14:32

sipserver

Messages: 83
Registered: September 2007
Location: Pretoria

Member

My guess is a 1% cut, the reason is that the inflow of money into our economy from overseas people/institutions is very high. This is becuase our interest rate is much higher than what they can earn in UK,Japan,Europe and USA. So we need to cut rates to slowdown the inflow of money.

Sipserver

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43088]

Mon, 21 September 2009 14:44

hdbb

Messages: 539
Registered: August 2009
Location: By the sea

Senior Member

They will be crazy to cut rates again!!

hdb
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43121]

Tue, 22 September 2009 04:28

Robbie

Messages: 66
Registered: October 2007

Member

sipserver wrote on Mon, 21 September 2009 14:32

Why is high foreign investment a bad thing? Confused

Robbie

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43124]

Tue, 22 September 2009 07:44

tank

Messages: 2005
Registered: September 2007
Location: Richards Bay

Senior Member

strong rand kills exporters.. I think rand is fine where it is now but any stronger then that will badly hurt exporters

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43128]

Tue, 22 September 2009 08:13

Velocity

Messages: 123
Registered: June 2009
Location: Pretoria

Senior Member

Rate cuts[ 16 vote(s) ]
1.	No cut	8 / 50%
2.	.50 cut	6 / 38%
3.	1.00 cut	2 / 13%

Will we have a rate cut or not?

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43129]

Tue, 22 September 2009 08:18

tank

Messages: 2005
Registered: September 2007
Location: Richards Bay

Senior Member

cant vote for some reason Confused

would vote : no

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43221]

Tue, 22 September 2009 15:03

tank

Messages: 2005
Registered: September 2007
Location: Richards Bay

Senior Member

4. Monetary policy stance

4.1 The Monetary Policy Committee is of the view that the risks to the inflation outlook appear to be fairly evenly balanced. Given the current policy stance, inflation is expected to continue moderating and return to within the inflation target range during the forecast period. Accordingly, the MPC has decided to leave the repurchase rate unchanged at 7 per cent per annum.

[Updated on: Tue, 22 September 2009 15:18]

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43226]

Tue, 22 September 2009 15:29

Kingrich

Messages: 153
Registered: July 2009
Location: George

Senior Member

I voted for 1% downwards, better for: export/farmers/clothing/stocks/rand value/people in the street( ex pensioners)/sales/economie, and more in line with the rest of the world.

My opinion, Richard

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Re: Interest rate cuts [message #43239]

Tue, 22 September 2009 16:17

contango

Messages: 1322
Registered: October 2004

Senior Member

Robbie wrote on Tue, 22 September 2009 04:28

Why is high foreign investment a bad thing? Confused

As with anything it's swings and roundabouts. Strong ZAR helps us pay off our foreign borrowings and deficits but it kills our farmers and miners, two large sectors of our GDP. Our farmers will not be profitable planting into December for next season at current grain, oil (fertilizer & fuel) and ZAR levels.

So it looks likely that we will be a net importer of food next year. If grain prices then rally (as they most likely will because this situation is happening in lots of developing countries) and the ZAR then weakens we will be up sh*t creek without a paddle i.e. our food prices will soar and it will be too late for our farmers to do anything about it. We have until the end of the year to decide to plant or not.

[Updated on: Tue, 22 September 2009 16:18]

_{Disclaimer:

This does not constitute guidance or a transaction proposal. You should not place any reliance on it when entering into transactions.}

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