| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56189] |
Thu, 29 July 2010 20:51   |
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I went short on IMP and ASA when the charts showed a Head and Shoulders on the ALSI and the SP500 broke through the bottom support. This was confirmed with a negative movement on Asia stocks overnight.Placed them and lost big time.
Your pics have not dipped so far. Is it too late to get in on a dip?
Not used to long term trading.
Went long on ZAR/USD today.
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56192] |
Thu, 29 July 2010 21:18 |
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As a short term trader. One day to 2 weeks at the most, I have lost out on my stop loss. Looking back, Had I stayed in I would have scored on the long run.
Maybe I should do a longer term and accept the degrade.
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56193] |
Thu, 29 July 2010 21:29 |
CFD Trader
Messages: 579
Registered: January 2010
Location: Pretoria,ZA |
Senior Member |
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Buy SIM futures, the share will rocket by 30-60% soon, then u will have R10k+ 42k Profit = R52k, almost halfway there...lol
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56197] |
Thu, 29 July 2010 21:48 |
Pilot 
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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Lets look at the construction sector first.
The J235 is still in it's up channel and will probably stay there. It broke the 2 year bear resistance yesterday and with good volume. Today we made a doji star (which means indecision). The break is not confirmed. But this is a normal phenomenon, because the market is always there to deceive you.
The bears will probably put up a fight tommorrow and try to push the price below the resistance. This should be a good entry point. 4842 is the point of 2 supports 1)the up channel and 2) the old bear resistance.
The break of a 2 year wedge has just been broken! Off course its a good time to get in. The next 6 months should be a run of note. Wedge breaks usually are.
There are still bears out there. They need to unwind and watch when their stop losses start going off. My feeling is that RBX, AEG and MUR has more short speculaters than the other stocks. They should rally faster.
But time will tell.
Attachment: J235.doc
(Size: 103.00KB, Downloaded 24 time(s))
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56199] |
Thu, 29 July 2010 22:20 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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I know most of you cant trade BSR so I posted MUR chart instead.
MUR has already broken a meduim term Bear resitance and made a bullish engulfing pattern. It confirmed and has broken through it channel on the top side(even more bullish). It is now in a new channel. This is not strange because there is absolutely no resistance untill R45-00. I drew in todays candle stick. That is why today was such a good day for MUR.
They should keep this momentum until R45-00. If they break that.....then the fun starts 
My feeling is that the market will open low tommorrow morning and testing those resistances. This should be a good entry point.
Just my feeling!
But this is still a great 6 month investment.
You could opt for any of the other stocks too RBX, AEG, GRF, BSR (R13-00) and then ESR (Looks like this one has bottomed out).
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Attachment: MUR3.doc
(Size: 101.00KB, Downloaded 41 time(s))
[Updated on: Thu, 29 July 2010 22:36]
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56202] |
Thu, 29 July 2010 22:52 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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Thanks CFD Trader
But this one is a little too risky for me.
It tried to break out of a falling wedge and was hammered back by the bears. With the rand as strong as it is, and the Gold price falling too.....there could be some more downside 
It is back in the wedge and no reversal signal yet.
It is showing a heck of a lot of positive divergance though, which would make for a strong recovery. One more downturn to make the double bottom?
If it breaks out it should go crazy!
Lets see
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Attachment: SIM.doc
(Size: 106.00KB, Downloaded 43 time(s))
[Updated on: Thu, 29 July 2010 22:56]
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56205] |
Fri, 30 July 2010 05:49 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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CFD Trader, I never looked at the closing price for the day!!
SIM has broken out! It is honouring an up channel at the moment. And you are right, this is another type of demon. It has upside potential up to about R1-72 where there is multiple resistance levels. This could happen in about 5 weeks.
They do have assets worth R2-55, so obviously they have been drilled down way beyond the turning point. Even if they make a loss of 61c the next year (like it has) they should probably be worth R1-70 at least. Fundamentally there is value in this share (not long term though).
Gold price could rally on a weakening rand, for the next couple of weeks. The goldprice is in heavy oversold conditions and the rand is showing divergance to weaken. Looks like trouble! Big upside potential.
I might just jump in. With a tight stop loss 2,5% below the channel. This demon could be racing @ 2% avg each day.
Thanks for this one, will let you know.
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Attachment: SIM.doc
(Size: 110.00KB, Downloaded 43 time(s))
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56218] |
Fri, 30 July 2010 10:45 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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See SIM running, no stopping now.
MUR not gonna happen @ my price.
Bought some CSO 200 @ R39-81. Will update my holdings later.
[Updated on: Fri, 30 July 2010 10:51]
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56221] |
Fri, 30 July 2010 11:42 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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Vader 
Hope it's not Bully beef.
Comair is in a sector that i think has good value too!
But this share is hard to pin down from a technical perspective, because it does not have enough traders in this share and its very illiquid.
But it does look like it is coming to a resistance level and on its support. There is positive divergance so an upbreak is more likely than down. Their figures arent too bad but there is better stocks in this sector.
I think it just broke the support (bearrish), but with hardly any volume. I cant see which way the money is going, so it's very hard to read into any breaks, bounces or reversals etc.
I'd be cautious, there is a lot of downside to the major bull support.
I guess your right, there's no-one in the control tower
But an upturn through the resistance could change it all around. Wait a couple of days would be the wise thing to do.
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Attachment: COM.doc
(Size: 92.50KB, Downloaded 18 time(s))
[Updated on: Fri, 30 July 2010 11:46]
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56267] |
Sat, 31 July 2010 17:37 |
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On average, gold mines like SIM do not do well when other equities are on the up. Am I correct? (Gold price drops)
So why have SIM in a trading portfolio with construction?
I am at that stage of learning where I could be very destructive.
Will buy MUR on Monday at 4250 or less. BSR is now out of reach.
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56272] |
Sun, 01 August 2010 09:53 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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Yes, you are right, the goldprice usually goes down when stocks go up.
Most of my selections are based on value. It has to make fundamental sense and combined with a technical buying signal. Wedge breaks or resistance breaks give crazy swings in prices. SIM has broken a wedge to the top for the second time and has already done 4% after it has broken back.
Fundamentally it has a net asset value of R2-55 / share. This confirms a value oppertunity. More downside is improbable and upside reward is huge. It also showed a lot of positive divergance for a big recovery, and the rand is showing divergance to weaken too.
SIM was not a long term selection, it was a 1 month selection to make a recovery to R1-70. It will not nearly have the same weighting in my portfolio as the construction sector. I didn't buy it anyway, because of its poor gearing, but is a perfect choice for the monthly competition.
The construction sector on the other hand is a meduim - long term value oppertunity. It is in line with the market cycle (low interest rates = economical growth ) Construction stocks are growth stocks and do well when economies expand. See previous posts why I selected them.
Eskom has big expansion to do! If you look at economic growth forcasts for South Africa and Southern Africa it looks healthy for the construction sector. Hopefully our goverment can help the unemployment situation by increasing goverment spending on infrastructure.
Someone asked in a previous post how I know about their order books. Most of the companies declare it in their yearly report and financial statements.
BSR is not out of reach, it just broke it wedge should still be the best over 12-24 months.
Happy trading
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56274] |
Sun, 01 August 2010 17:50 |
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SSF's over 12 to 24 months?
Does your profit not decrease over time?
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56400] |
Thu, 05 August 2010 09:56 |
Jacana
Messages: 45
Registered: April 2010 |
Member |
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Interest is already ususally calculated in the price of the underlying share exposure for the remaining period to expiry of the contract. To my knowledge only CFD's are liable for daily interest charges with a time decay?
Pilot, what close out date are your contracts? December of Sep?
Markets can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent.
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56409] |
Thu, 05 August 2010 12:48 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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September contracts
Yes you are right! But I think the market price of the futures change during the period too by the market makers (Safex), to work in an interest component.
I will double check it.
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56415] |
Thu, 05 August 2010 13:42 |
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hdbb
Messages: 577
Registered: August 2009
Location: By the sea |
Senior Member |
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market price includes interest, an assumed dividend based on last years divi plus SAFEXS cost (commission)...Then you add the brokers fee seperately! Also note the market price does not drop ex divi on dividend date but rather when dividends are declared!! Highly confusing and more expensive than CFD's!!! The market price does diminish daily with regards to the interest facor until it reaches zero on expiry of contract!!
[Updated on: Thu, 05 August 2010 13:43]
hdb
The mediocre teacher tells.The good teacher explains.The superior teacher demonstrates. The great teacher inspires!!
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56487] |
Fri, 06 August 2010 17:51 |
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Bully Beef too expensive for Pilot. Dog biscuits for xmas??
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| Re: Turning R10 000 into R100 000 by Christmas [message #56496] |
Sat, 07 August 2010 05:56 |
Pilot
Messages: 219
Registered: May 2006
Location: Wellington |
Senior Member |
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Ok, closed out a stop loss on CSO yesterday at R39-00 (for a R1380 loss). Not a great start to my first 2 weeks. Would have liked to keep this one too, but it should test lower levels first. Awesome results (Now trading on 3 - P/E). Will get this one cheaper. 
Anyway, my portfolio increased by 21,61% for the first 2 weeks (not shooting the lights out). Was hoping for about 25-30%. At this rate (21,61% /2 weeks), I should get to R86 000 by Christmas (see Spreadsheet).
Everything looks like it is on track, except for the CSO trigger. Should have left this one for later .
My first target is still about 50-60% increase for the first month. That should get me there.
Orca, I will send you some Christmas pudding if you want.
I will post an update in two weeks time (maybe next week too)
I am looking to add DRD, CSO, ESR or increase my BSR holdings. Will keep you posted.
[Updated on: Sat, 07 August 2010 06:01]
Invest in what you know - Warren Buffet
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